Buffett Expects “Terrible Problem” for Municipal Debt
Berkshire’s investment portfolio included municipal bonds valued at less than $3.9 billion as of March 31, down from more than $4.7 billion at the end of 2008. The company had a maximum of $16 billion at risk in derivatives tied to such debt, according to the company’s annual report for 2009.
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Buffett said last month that the U.S. may feel compelled to rescue a state facing default after the government committed $700 billion to bail out financial firms and automakers. “It would be hard in the end for the federal government to turn away a state having extreme financial difficulty when they’ve gone to General Motors and other entities and saved them,”
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About $14.5 billion of municipal bonds defaulted in 2008 and 2009… Many those were securities backed by revenue from nursing homes, property developments and other projects without claim to government tax revenue.
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Defaults by local governments with the power to raise taxes are less common. Jefferson County, Alabama, defaulted on more than $3 billion of bonds backed by sewer fees after the deals grew more costly in the wake of the credit crisis in 2008. Vallejo, California, filed for bankruptcy in 2008 after its tax revenue tumbled.
Related: USA State Governments Have $1,000,000,000,000 in Unfunded Retirement Obligations – Buffett on Need to Reduce Government Deficits – Politicians Again Raising Taxes On Your Children
Roubini Says Rising Sovereign Debt Leads to Inflation, Defaults
“The thing I worry about is the buildup of sovereign debt,” said Roubini
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If the problem isn’t addressed, he said, nations will either fail to meet obligations or experience higher inflation as officials “monetize” their debts, or print money to tackle the shortfalls.
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“While today markets are worried about Greece, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, or the canary in the coal mine for a much broader range of fiscal problems,”
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Greece “could eventually be forced to get out” of the 16- nation euro region, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. That would lead to a decline in the euro and make it “less of a liquid currency,” he said. While a smaller euro zone “makes sense,” he said, “it could be very messy.”
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[Roubini supports] a carbon tax on gasoline, with Roubini saying it would reduce American dependence on oil from overseas, shrink the trade deficit and carbon emissions, and help pay down the U.S. budget deficit.
I agree that the damage done by those (which is nearly all of them) countries living beyond their means is significant. The USA and many countries in Europe and Asia (South Korea and China are two exceptions) have raised taxes on the future (by default – spending more than you have necessarily increases taxes later) to consume today. The strong emerging markets are another exception, many having learned their lessons and stopped spending money they didn’t have in the 1990′s.
However the richest countries have been spending money they don’t have for decades and the increase in government debt as a portion of GDP is an increasingly serious problem. It would be nice if the government of the rich countries could behave responsibly but it does not look like many of them have citizens who will elect honest and competent leaders. As long as they elect leaders that insist on raising taxes on the future (and lying to the populace by claiming they cut taxes – because they eliminate taxes today) those countries will pay severely for the irresponsible spending.
Saying you cut taxes when you just delay them is equivalent to saying I paid off my credit card bill when all I did was get 2 new credit cards, borrow all the money I owed on my original card, pay that one off, and then borrow more to increase my debt even more. Yes it is true I did pay off my original credit card, but that is hardly the salient point. My credit card debt increase. All that has happened in the USA since the Clinton administration had a balanced budget is politicians used a credit card thinking to lower taxes while necessarily increasing them in the future. You don’t reduce debt by spending money you don’t have.
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Economic data don’t point to boom times just yet
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By contrast, that ratio of household debt to economic output was 70 percent in 2000. To get back to that level, Americans would need to pay down $3.4 trillion in debt
And it isn’t like the 2000 level was one of great consumer discipline. The economy needs to improve in several ways to be approaching a state that could be called a healthy economy. The 2 biggest, in my mind are 1) decreasing debt (consumer and government) and 2) increasing jobs. My next most important would probably be increasing the number of “good” jobs. Many other data points are important, such as: decreasing income inequality; increasing the age at retirement (because of all the systemic problems caused by extremely long retirements financed not by savings but taxes on existing workers); low inflation (luckily that is continuing to look good); value added economic activity (real GDP); decrease in the cost of the health care system as a % of GDP; decrease in financial leverage; economic strength worldwide (economic weakness of Japan, Europe… can severely hamper economic success in the USA). I do not see a bubble hyped economy as a healthy economy – even if lots of measures look good.
Related: Americans are Drowning in Debt – Dollar Decline Due to Government Debt or Total Debt? – Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap – Consumer Debt Down Over $100 Billion So Far in 2009 (Nov 2009)
Half of Commercial Mortgages to Be Underwater
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We now have 2,988 banks – mostly midsized, that have these dangerous concentrations in commercial real estate lending.” As a result, the economy will face another “very serious problem” that will have to be resolved over the next three years, she said, adding that things are unlikely to return to normalcy in 2010.
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Warren said it’s time for the government to “pull the plug” on mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “I’m one of those people who never liked public-private partnership to begin with. I think what they did was use public when public was useful and private when private was useful,” she said. “And I think we’ve got to rethink that whole thing.”
“There is no implicit guarantee anymore,” she added. “I don’t care how big you are, if you make serious enough mistakes, then your business can be entirely wiped out.”
Financially literate people should know that the current commercial real estate market is in serious trouble. I still figure it will rebound well. I just want to wait and see how far prices fall and then try to buy when people are so frustrated they will sell at very low prices.
Related: Commercial Real Estate Market Prospects Remain Dim – Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures Data Indicates 2010 Could Show Improvement – Jumbo Loan Defaults Rise at Fast Pace (Feb 2009)
One of the few good recent results of the economy has been a continuous decline in consumer debt. Consumer debt fell for the 8th consecutive month, for the first time, in September, declining by $15 billion.
Consumer debt grew by about $100 each year from 2004 through 2007. In 2008 it increased $40 billion. In 2009 it has fallen over $100 billion so far: from $2,559 billion to $2,456 billion. This still leaves over $8,000 in consumer debt for every person in the USA and $20,000 per family.
The huge amount of outstanding consumer and government debt remains a burden for the economy. At least some progress is being made to decrease consumer debt.
Those living in USA have consumed far more than they have produced for decades. That is not sustainable. You don’t fix this problem by encouraging more spending and borrowing: either by the government or by consumers. The long term problem for the USA economy is that people have consuming more than they have been producing.
The solution to this problem is to stop spending beyond your means by even increasing levels of personal and government debt. Thankfully over the last year at least consumer debt has been declining. Government debt has been exploding so unfortunately that problem has continued to get worse.
As we know, interest rates have fallen a great deal over the last few years. the federal funds rate sits at essentially 0% and money market funds now yield under 1%. However, credit card accounts that are charging interest increase to an interest rate of 14.9% from 13.6% in the 3rd quarter of 2008. In 2004 the credit card interest rate was 13.2%, 2005 – 14.6%, 2006 – 14.7%, 2007 – 14.7%, 2008 – 13.6%. All credit card balances should be paid off every month to avoid these excessive interest rates.
Data from the federal reserve and census bureau.
Related: Consumer Debt Declined a Record $21.5 Billion in July – The USA Economy Needs to Reduce Personal and Government Debt – Let the Good Times Roll (using Credit)
It is a shame that it is no surprise when a bank lies to you. I got a “priority notice” from my mortgage company that my 30 year fixed load could be reduced. They show big huge figures showing current interest rate, new interest rate, potential yearly savings of over $5,000… Complete lies. They are claiming savings with a completely different mortgage, a 5/30 year adjustable rate mortgage (which you have to turn over the paper and note they list “mortgage product: 5/1 ARM” and then know what that means).
Then they go on for a page with all sorts of text seemingly designed to confuse fools. Obviously they try to claim the savings are what is important and the different mortgages, risks of rising interest rates etc. are not important [why don't they just make it a 30 year mortgage at the low rate, if they think the interest rate risk they try to stick the client with is such an unimportant detail that isn't even mentioned on the front page with the "comparison" mortgage rates]).
Anyone that trusts any company that so blatantly tries to fool you is crazy. When they are not shy about using such obviously deceitful tactics you can’t trust them to do much much worse in ways that are very difficult to protect yourself from.
As I have said before, don’t trust your bank. More than any other companies I see, financial institution, treat customers as fools to be fleeced not customers to provide value to. It really is amazing people defend banks paying obscene bonuses to those that are able to fool financial illiterates into stupid decisions. The company trying to deceive in this case, did indeed fail (and was saved by the FDIC). Financial institutions have decided that they will just focus on tricking those that are not financially literate out of as much money as they possibly can. If you don’t educate yourself you are at great risk to be taken advantage of by financial institutions focused on finding people they can take advantage of.
Related: FDIC Study of Bank Overdraft Fees – Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders – Don’t Let the Credit Card Companies Play You for a Fool – Customer Hostility from Discover Card – Legislation to Address the Worst Credit Card Fee Abuse – Maybe
This hardly constitutes an outright collapse, nor is it necessarily cause for concern. American exporters, whose goods have become more competitive abroad, are happy with their weaker currency. Similarly domestic producers may be cheered that rival, imported goods are more expensive. And European tourists, who can buy more for their euros during weekend shopping excursions to America, may cheer too. However, the continued decline of the dollar does come against a backdrop of ominous murmurs from the likes of China and Russia, who hold much of their reserves in dollars, about the need to shift their reserves out of the greenback. Brazil’s imposition of a 2% levy on portfolio inflows is also a sign that other countries are getting nervous about seeing their currencies rise against the dollar.
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But it is hard, also, to think of a parallel in history. A country heavily in debt to foreigners, with a government deficit it is making little headway at controlling, is creating vast amounts of additional currency. Yet it is allowed to get away with very low interest rates. Eventually such an arrangement must surely break down, bringing a new currency system into being, just as Bretton Woods emerged in the 1940s.
The absence of a credible alternative to the dollar means that, despite its declining value, its status as the world’s reserve currency is not seriously under threat. But the system could change in other ways. A world where currencies traded within bands, or where foreign creditors insist on America issuing some debt in other currencies, are all real possibilities as the world adjusts to a declining dollar.
The issuance of USA government debt of any significant size in other currencies would be an amazing event, to me. However, that does not mean it won’t happen. In my opinion it is hard to justify the non-collapse of the dollar, and has been for quite some time.
The huge future tax liability imposed over the last few decades along with the failure to save by those in the country creates a hollow economy. Granted the USA had a huge surplus of wealth built up since the end of World War II. The USA has to a great extent sold off that wealth to finance living beyond the productive capacity of the country the last 20-30 years. But that can only go on so long.
The only thing saving the dollar is that other countries do not want the dollar to decline because they don’t want the competition of American goods (either being sold to their country or for the goods they hope to export). So they intervene to stop the fall of the dollar (and buy USA government debt). That can serve to artificially inflate the dollar for some time. However, eventually I think that will collapse. And when it does it will likely be very quick. The idea of the USA issuing debt in other currencies seems crazy now. It could then go from possibility to necessity within months.
You cannot print money forever to live beyond your means and have people accept it as valuable. The government can runs deficits if the citizen’s finance that debt with savings: and still maintain a sound currency. But the recent period, given the macro-economic conditions, don’t justify the value of the dollar. It should have fallen much further a long time ago. The other saving grace for the dollar is few large economies have untarnished economies. The Euro has strengths but is hardly perfect. The Chinese Renminbi is possibly the strongest contender but the economy is still very controlled, financial data is untrustworthy, political freedom is not sufficient… The Japanese Yen does have some strengths but really their long term macro-economic conditions is far from sound.
In the current economic environment investing in currencies is one way to look for higher returns and even to diversify and hedge your portfolio using forex trading strategies.
Related: The USA Economy Needs to Reduce Personal and Government Debt – Let the Good Times Roll (using Credit) – Federal Reserve to Buy $1.2T in Bonds, Mortgage-Backed Securities – Who Will Buy All the USA’s Debt?
How a Family Shed $106,000 in Debt
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Several steps were key to making the plan work. Kandy and Russell eliminated discretionary spending. Kandy began buying generic food and frequenting thrift stores for clothing purchases. They stopped exchanging Christmas and birthday gifts with each other and their relatives.
Even with the drastic cutbacks, the Hildebrandts couldn’t cover the $2,000 they were sending to CCCS each month to be distributed to their creditors. At that time, the sum amounted to about half of Russell’s take-home pay. So Russell took on a second job cleaning a local grocery store several nights a week from midnight to 4:30 a.m. He would arrive home from his day job, eat dinner, catch a few hours of sleep and head to work. After his shift, he would go back home, sleep a few more hours and then get up for his day job.
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By the fall of 2008, the Hildebrandts had one year to go on the payment plan. Russell even started daydreaming about a new home when he saw a three-bedroom rambler for sale in New Richmond. It had all that they were looking for, including a large yard and a separate bedroom for Joey. Russell let a real estate agent know that they liked the house, but added that the family would have to pay off their debts before taking on a mortgage.
Several months later the agent called and asked if the Hildebrandts would be interested in a rent-to-own agreement. The current owner of the house had some health concerns and was eager to move. The monthly rent would be $1,000, which included $200 to be escrowed for closing costs. They could manage it.
Earlier this year, the owner wanted to accelerate the sale process. In April, using the tax credit for first-time home buyers, the Hildebrandts were able to swing the purchase and pay off the remaining balances on their credit cards about six months ahead of schedule.
It is certainly a daunting task to dig out off such a crushing debt load. It is much easier to avoiding getting in that situation in the first place (how not to get into trouble with credit cards). It is easy to get yourself in trouble by borrowing money. In many cases all it takes to not get into that trouble is just don’t buy what you can’t pay for.
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Last November USA consumer debt fell, by a then record of $8 billion. In July, 2009, consumer debt was reduced another $21 billion, which is a good sign.
April of 2008 USA consumer debt stood at $2.54 trillion. Based on a population of 300 million people that would mean $8,467 for every person in just personal debt. Living beyond your means is not a good thing. After the July decrease of $21.55 billion, the total consumer debt stood at $2.47 trillion, a decline of $70 billion over the last 15 months.
Decreasing this debt level was (and is) necessary. If that means we have some suffering today to pay for living beyond our means for years the ‘fix’ is not to continue to live beyond our means. The ‘fix’ is to accept the consequences of past behavior and build a more sustainable economy now for the future.
Consumer credit down record amount in July
Consumers have retrenched since the financial crisis hit in full force last September. Credit has fallen in every month except January. In percentage terms, the drop in credit is the biggest since June 1975.
And on a year-on-year basis, credit is down 4.3%, the biggest drop since June 1944. The retrenchment was much more than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected consumer credit to decline by $4.3 billion. There were also sharp downward revisions to June data.
Economists said shrinking credit might strangle the recovery. “There is no real way to put a positive spin on these data. Credit is still shrinking and that is going to have an impact on consumption,” wrote Charmaine Buskas, senior economics strategist at TD Securities, in a note to clients.
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credit-card debt fell $6.11 billion, or 8.5%, in July to $905.58 billion. This is the record 11th straight monthly drop in credit card debt. Non-revolving credit, such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans fell a record $15.44 billion or 11.7% to $1.57 trillion.
Here is a positive spin on it. We owe $21.5 billion less than we did last month. How lost are we that there is no positive way to spin owing less money than you used to owe?
Related: Personal Saving and Personal Debt in the USA – Americans are Drowning in Debt
Chart showing loan delinquency rates for real estate, consumer and agricultural loans for 1998 to 2009 by the Curious Cat Investing Economics Blog, Creative Commons Attribution, data from the Federal Reserve.Delinquency rates on commercial (up another 151 basis points) and residential (93 basis points) real estate continued to increase dramatically in the second quarter. Credit card delinquency rates increased but only by 20 basis points.
Real estate delinquency rates exploded in 2008. In the 4th quarter of 2007 residential delinquency rates were 3.02% by the 4th quarter of 2008 they were 6.34% and in the 2nd quarter of this year they were 8.84% (582 basis points above the 4th quarter of 2007). Commercial real estate delinquency rates were at 2.74% in the 4th quarter of 2007, 5.43% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 7.91% in the 2nd quarter of 2009 (a 517 basis point increase).
Credit card delinquency rates were much higher than real estate default rates for the last 10 years (the 4-5% range while real estate hovered above or below 2%). Now they are over 200 and 300 basis points bellow residential and commercial delinquency rates respectively. From 4.8% in the 3rd quarter 2008 to 5.66% in the 4th and 6.5% in the 1st quarter of 2009.
The delinquency rate on other consumer loans and agricultural loan delinquency rates are up but nowhere near the amounts of real estate or credit cards.
As I wrote recently bond yields in the last few months show a dramatic increase in investor confidence for corporate bonds.
Related: Loan Delinquency Rates: 1998-2009 – The Impact of Credit Scores and Jumbo Size on Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Mortgage Rate and Federal Funds Rate Chart