When I last looked (about 2 years ago) the number needed to maintain was between 100,000-125,000. The USA still has lots of immigration and those immigrants are young, overall (which is one reason the USA doesn’t have as significant demographic problems as Europe and Japan do). My guess is the retirements are not going to reduce the job market needs below an average of 75,000.

The largest reason for the drop in the unemployment rate is the drop in labor force participation of those between 20-65. It isn’t people retiring over 65 that is dropping the number of jobs needed to drop the unemployment rate it is those stil under 65 that have dropped out of the labor force (likely many will rejoin once jobs are available).

There is also a big increase in those receiving disability benefits from the SSA that directly correlates with the bad job market. Obviously there are many legitimately disabled people. The data seems pretty clear that currently part of the labor force decline is in those claiming disability pay that would not be doing so in a better economy. We will likely see these numbers decline and those people rejoin the labor force once jobs are more plentiful.

These additions to the labor force will require additional jobs (even though the population won’t increase). My guess is 125,000 is still a good long term estimate of the number of jobs we should add to sustain the labor market. The population is growing (largely due to immigration – both directly and then the immigrants having kids once they are here). Part of that growth is in the increase in those over 65. I’ll have to take a look at the 20-65 population growth projections – I believe it will be increasing but it will be interesting to check and see.