I also close out the interview with some tips I have shared on this blog over the years

I think those that find this blog worthwhile will also enjoy the interview so I hope you read the full interview.

Related: more interviews with John Hunter – Investment Options Are Much Less Comforting Than Normal These Days – How to Protect Your Financial Health

Within the market there is tons of variation those things of course are not nearly that simple, but the idea I think holds. Well if you look back at historical data the returns will include the adjustment of going from a PE of 11 to a PE of 14. Now maybe the new few decades would adjust from PE of 14 to PE of 17 but maybe not. At some point that fundamental re-adjustment will stop.

And therefore future returns would be expected to be lower than historically due to this one factor. Now maybe other factors will increase returns to compensate but if not the historical returns may well provide an overly optimistic view.

And if there is a short term bubble that lets say pushes the PR to 16 while the “fair” long term value is 14, then there will be a negative impact on the returns going forward bringing the PE from 16 to 14. That isn’t necessarily a drop (though it could be) in stock prices, it could just be very slow increases as earning growth slowly pushes PE back to 14.

Monument to the People’s Heroes with the Shanghai skyline in the background. See more photos by John Hunter

Another thing to consider is another long term macro-economic factor may also be giving long term historical returns an extra boost. The type of economic growth from the end of World War I to 1973 (just to pick a specific time, there was a big economic slowdown after OPEC drastically increased the price of oil). While that period includes the great depression and World War II, which massively distorts figures, from the end of WW I through the 1960s Europe and the USA went through an amazing amount of economic growth.

During that period the boom in communications, electricity, industrialization, air conditioning, modern farming practices (which continues booming significantly after 1973) indoor plumbing… increased the economy dramatically. We have had a subsequent period of massive boom related to computerization and software advances and health care drugs and technology. And Japan was a bit offset booming from 1950 to about 1990. And China has been booming from about 1990 to now.

While we may see similar boom, perhaps from robotics and continuing with health care technologies and perhaps India, Africa and South America could boom in massive globally macro-economicly significant ways. But it also is possible these huge macro-economic booms are not repeated. If so, it is natural that the historical stock market return would be reduced.

To a lessor extent financial engineering that was wise and useful, as apposed to just reckless gambling has boosted stock returns significantly. It is likely that won’t be repeated.

I like the idea of paying attention to long term historical data. And that has value for stock investors. But when you look at long term data you have to consider whether that data is not just providing measurements of what stock market performance can be expected to be (as say you would from testing scientific facts such as the boiling point of water). The historical stock data was true for a period of time and informs us about that period. But the next 40 years will be much different and to what extent the past data is relevant is open for debate.

Related: Global Stock Market Capitalization from 2000 to 2012 – Misuse of Statistics, Mania in Financial Markets – Are Stocks Still Overpriced? (2008) – Data Can’t Lie, But People Can Be Mislead – Investing Return Guesses While Planning for Retirement – S&P 500 Dividend Yield Tops Bond Yield: First Time Since 1958 (2008)

If you are not comfortable with the risk of an investment most of the time you shouldn’t make that investment. There is a bit of a conflict, for example, where an investor is scared of any loss from say an investment in a stock market index and trying to save for retirement on a median level income. It is nearly impossible to save for retirement without investing in stocks if you are not already rich, so as with most investment advice there is a bit of difficulty at the extremes but in general investors shouldn’t take on risk they are not comfortable with.

For experienced investors with a high level of financial literacy more speculative options can have a useful role in a portfolio. Though you should realize most people fail with speculation, so you have to be realistic about your prospects. I have used speculative investments including naked short selling, leverage (margin) and options.

Spread betting is another speculative strategy that can play a part in an investment portfolio. Spread betting is not allowed in the USA (with our highly regulated personal investing environment but is available in most other countries). They are somewhat similar to binary options (which are allowed in the USA) and to futures contracts (they are not the same, just those are comparable to get some idea of how you would use them in a portfolio).

Spread betting really is a bet on what will happen. You don’t buy a financial instrument. You place a bet with a company and if the prices move for you and you close the position with a gain they pay out a gain to you and if you close out the position with a loss your capital held with them is reduced by your loss amount.

Since the price to control a position is much less than the notional position size there is a large degree of leverage which increases the affect of gains and loses. Since positions can move against you and must be settled if the loss exceed your deposit with the company you are trading with having a substantial cash cushion is the way I would use such a speculative account. If I decided I could afford to risk losing $5,000 I would deposit that amount.

My purchases would about 10% of the capital in the account (so $500 at first). If that is leveraged at 20 to 1 (just requiring 5% down on margin), that would make my effective leverage just 2 to 1. But if I added other positions that would increase my leverage, say 2 more purchases and my leverage would be 6 to 1.

The way I have managed the speculative portion of my portfolio is to fund it and then pull off part of the gains to my long term portfolio and retain part of the gains to build my speculative account. It isn’t really quite that clear as I have different level of speculation in my portfolio. Options are speculative but have a limit of 100% loss. Selling stocks short (naked shorting) is speculative but has theoretically unlimited losses. Using margin on regular stocks has the potential to lose more than you have invested though most of the time you should be stopped out before the losses are too much beyond your entire account value.

So I don’t really have a clear cut speculative portfolio but I roughly follow that procedure. I have added to the speculative portion when I have had very large gains in a particular portion of my main portfolio.

Another factor with spread betting, shorting and options is that they can actually be used to reduce the risk of your overall portfolio using certain strategies. If you believe there is a risk for a market downturn but don’t want to sell any of your stock holdings you can use spread betting to create a position that will gain if the market declines. That gain then will offset the likely loss on your stock positions thus reducing you risk in a market decline.

Of course, if you do that and the market moves up you will create a loss on you spread betting position that offsets your gains on your stock positions. You could also bet against specific stocks that you think will decline more in a market decline and seek to increase your return of course that has risks (including the market declining along with your stocks but that stocks you bet against could move against you anyway). I have used this strategy with selling stocks short occasionally.

See this site for a bit more on the details of spread betting. An additional risk to consider with spread betting is you need to find a company you trust to be around to pay off your gains. You would want to examine the safety of your funds and that (in the UK) the account is covered by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and complies with the FCA’s Client Assets provisions (and in other countries they have similar coverage). To be safe you should consider whether holding more than the covered amount is wise in your account. The last 10 years have provided examples of the riskiness of financial companies going out of business; that your funds wouldn’t be accessible is a risk that must be considered.

Related: Shorting Using Inverse Funds – Books on Trading and Speculating in Financial Markets – Selling Covered Call Options

• Top 10 Countries for Manufacturing Production in 2010: China, USA, Japan, Germany… (posted in 2011)
• Manufacturing Output as Percent of GDP from 1980 to 2010 by Country (2012)
• Government Debt as Percentage of GDP 1990-2009: USA, Japan, Germany, China… (2010)
• Nuclear Power Generation by Country from 1985-2010 (2012)
• Manufacturing Output by Country 1999-2011: China, USA, Japan, Germany (2013)
• Monopolies and Oligopolies do not a Free Market Make (2008)
• USA Individual Earnings Levels: Top 1% $343,000, 5% $154,000, 10% $112,000, 25% $66,000 (2012)
• The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Apple, Exxon, Microsoft, Google… (2014) (
• House of Cards – Mortgage Crisis Documentary (2009)
• Iskandar Malaysia Economic Development Zone
• Oil Consumption by Country 1990-2009 (2010)
• Stock Market Capitalization by Country from 1990 to 2010 (2012)
• Cockroach Portfolio (2014)
• Global Stock Market Capitalization from 2000 to 2012 (2013)
• 11 Stocks for 10 Years – November 2014 Update
• Oil Production by Country 1999-2009 (2011)
• Chart of Largest Petroleum Consuming Countries from 1980 to 2010 (2011)
• Delaying the Start of Social Security Payments Can Pay Off (2014)
• Chart of Global Wind Energy Capacity by Country 2005 to 2013 (2014)
• USA Health Expenditures Reached $2.8 trillion in 2012: $8,915 per person and 17.2% of GDP (2014)

Related: 20 Most Popular Post on Curious Cat Science and Engineering Blog in 2014 – 10 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Management Blog in 2014 – Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Management Comments Blog –

Based on the Federal Reserve’s 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances the Center updated the NRRI results (the entire article is a very good read).

from the NRRI report.

The lower the risk number in the chart the better, so things have not been going well since the 1990s for those in the USA saving for retirement.

As the report discusses their are significant issues with retirement planning that defy easy prediction; this makes things even more challenging for those saving for retirement. The report discusses the difficulty placed on retirees by the Fed’s extremely low interest rate policy (a policy that provides billions each year to too-big-too-fail banks – hardly the reward that should be provided for bringing the world to economic calamity but never-the-less that transfer of wealth from retirees to too-big-to-fail banks is the policy the Fed has chosen).

That exacerbates the problems of too little savings during the working career for those in the USA. The continued evidence is that those in the USA continue to spend too much today and save too little. Also you have to expect the Fed and politicians will continue to make policy that favors their friends at too-big-fail banks and hedge funds and the like. You can’t expect them to behave differently than they have been the last 50 years. That means the likely actions by the government to take from median income people to aid the richest 1% (such as bailing out the bankers with super low interest rate policies and continue to subsidize losses and privatize their winning bets) will continue. You need to have extra savings to support those policies. Of course we could change to do things differently but there is no realistic evidence of any move to do so. Retirement planning needs to be based on evidence, not hopes about how things should be.

Related: How Much of Current Income to Save for Retirement – Save What You Can, Increase Savings as You Can Do So – Don’t Expect to Spend Over 4% of Your Retirement Investment Assets Annually – Retirement Planning: Looking at Assets (2012) – How Much Will I Need to Save for Retirement? (2009)

Alibaba makes the top ten, just weeks after becoming a publicly traded company. The next ten most valuable companies:

Petro China reached to top spot in 2010. I think NTT (Japan) also made the top spot (in 1999); NTT’s current market cap is $66 billion.

Market capitalization shown are of the close of business today, as shown on Yahoo Finance.

According to this March 2014 report the USA is home to 47 of the top 100 companies by market capitalization. From 2009 to 2014 that total has ranged from 37 to 47.

The range (during 2009 to 2014) of top 100 companies by country: China and Hong Kong (8 to 11), UK (8 to 11), Germany (2 to 6), France (4 to 7), Japan (2 to 6), Switzerland (3 to 5).

Related: Stock Market Capitalization by Country from 1990 to 2010 – Global Stock Market Capitalization from 2000 to 2012 – Investing in Stocks That Have Raised Dividends Consistently – The Economy is Weak and Prospects May be Grim, But Many Companies Have Rosy Prospects (2011)

A few other companies of interest:
Facebook, USA, current market cap is $210 billion.
Pfizer, USA, $184 billion.
Toyota, Japan, $182 billion.

China Construction Bank Corporation, China, $182 billion**.
Merck, USA, $161 billion.
BHP, Australia, $159 billion.
Walt Disney, USA, $154 billion.
Samsung, Korea, $152 billion.
Tencent, China, $143 billion**.
Bank of China, China, $133 billion**.

* China Mobile market cap taken from their website and converted to USD.
** calculation by taking cap from Yahoo Finance and converting to USD – even though it doesn’t say I am guessing they are quoting the cap in HK$ – which Google Finance also does.
*** from Google finance (the market cap varies depending on which symbol you use)

This is potentially a real risk to Google. The odds of such a huge success it decreases Google’s profits are tiny (I think). But there is a real risk that the increase in Google’s profits going forward are materially affected by a well done competitor to Adsense.

Adwords is Google’s platform for buying ads. Those ads are then displayed on Google’s websites and on millions of other websites. Other websites can host ads via the Adsense program. It seems to me what is really at risk is better seen as Adsense business. The business on Google’s own websites is not at risk (Google’s profit from its sites are double I think all the other sites [via Adsense] combined).

If Amazon took away 10% of what Google’s Adsense business 4 years would have been that is likely material to Google’s earning. Not huge but real.

Even losing the ads on Amazon’s web site is likely noticeable (though not a huge deal, for Google, for many companies it would be significant, I would guess).

There is even the potential Google has to reduce their profitability, on Adsense, to compete – giving web sites a better cut of revenue.

Google paid out $9 billion to Adsense sites in 2013. That means they kept over $14 I think (I am just going from memory about what the split of revenue Google provides is). Google has expenses some marginal expenses for this revenue but the profit margin is enormous (the fixed costs are significant but the marginal costs are really small and Google is very profitable on this business).

That said, I think Amazon has plenty of challenges to making it an effective competitor to Google. But they have a chance. And there is even a small chance (very small I think) that Amazon could create a competitor that actually results in noticeably (say over 15%) declining revenue to Google via Adsense. Likely even in this case Google continues to grow profit.

Google revenue from ads from their own websites are the most important earnings and likely to continue to be so. Also new business (non web-ad-income) is growing and I think will continue to do so (this is likely an area some might find more questionable).

Another question is if Amazon will actually try to make such a system as profitable as it could be. It will likely take a fair amount of energy and cash to get the program to be successful. Will Jeff Bezos then use the profits to make Amazon profitable? Or will he keep fairly small profit margins and go for growth?

I admire Bezos’ willingness to invest for the long term. But I think he has gone too far and should aim for more near term profitability. I do believe this is a bit less of a concern than many make of it as the cash flow from operations is actually significantly positive. It isn’t as though the business is not profitable. He is just investing tons in growth (and new ventures), which I support.

I wish he would seek to increase the profit margins a bit though and use that to be profitable. I think this would offer the chance for a huge amount of profit that could be a path to such results. However, it will not be easy and the likelihood of pulling that off is fairly small. I think it is a good gamble for Amazon to take though.

Related: Is Google Overpriced? (my answer in 2007? No) – Click Fraud = Friction for Google – Is Amazon Using a Costco Strategy? – Buy Google – The Economy is Weak and Prospects May be Grim, But Many Companies Have Rosy Prospects

As I have written before: Avoiding Hedge Fund Investments is One of the Benefits of Being in the 99%.

This is pretty well understood by most knowledgeable investors, financial planners and investing experts. But funds that charge huge fees continue to get away with it. If you are smart you will avoid them. A few simple investing rules get you well into the top 10% of investors

• seek low fees
• diversify – pay attention to risk of portfolio overall
• limit trading (low turnover)
• use tax advantage accounts wisely (in the USA 401(k)s and IRAs)

From a personal finance perspective, saving money is a key. Most people fail at being decent investors before they even get a chance to invest by spending more than they can afford and failing to save, and even worse going into debt (other than to some extent for college education and house). Consistently putting aside 10-20% of your income and investing wisely will put you in good shape over the long term.

Warren Buffett put his money (a tiny bit for him, just $1 million) on the idea that hedge funds can’t outperform the market given the huge fees they charge. After 6 years he is well up on his bet with his pick (Vanguard S&P 500 index soundly beating a portfolio of hedge funds selected by the opponent in the bet).

I do wonder at what point the huge amount of index investing creates opportunities that can be exploited profitably. I actually think that point has been passed. The question now is can you profitably and reliably find active investing managers that are wise and charge relatively low fees? Passive investing may now account for over 60% of investments in the market.

Also in certain market environments where the market is likely to ignore useful data (bubbles or fads) or where data is questionable and smart digging can provide useful and profitable insight (China may fit this idea now – I pay for actively managed Templeton developing market funds and have for 20 years, I also have Vanguard developing market index type fund – VWO). I think most investors should primarily use index funds (REITs, etc.) but I think the prospects for investors picking their own stocks may be better as more investing is based solely on index funds mass buying and selling.

I am worried about the price level of the overall market now. I am less worried about some stocks; this means I am more comfortable holding Apple, Google, Toyota, Abbie etc. (not so much – Amazon) than I am the S&P 500 right now.

Related: Trying to Beat the Stock Market – Lazy Golfer Portfolio Allocation

This is another interesting portfolio choice. I have discussed my thoughts on portfolio choices several times. This one is again a bit bond heavy for my tastes. I like the global nature of this one. I like real estate focus – though as mentioned in previous articles how people factor in their personal real estate (home and investments) needs to be considered.

Related: Cockroach Portfolio – Lazy Golfer Portfolio – Investment Risk Matters Most as Part of a Portfolio, Rather than in Isolation – Looking for Dividend Stocks in the Current Extremely Low Interest Rate Environment

The correct decision depends on your personal financial situation and your life expectancy. The social security payment increases are based on life expectancy for the entire population but if your life expectancy is significantly different that can change what option makes sense for you. If you live a short time you won’t make up for missing payments (the time while you delayed taking payments) with the increased monthly payment amount.

The “normal social security retirement age” is set in law and depends on when you were born. If you were born prior to 1938 it is 65 and if you are born after 1959 it is 67 (in between those dates it slowly increases. Those born in 1959 will reach the normal social security retirement age of 67 in 2026.

The social security retirement age has fallen far behind demographic trends – which is why social security deductions are so large today (it used to be social security payments for the vast majority of people did not last long at all – they died fairly quickly, that is no longer the case). The way to cope with this is either delay the retirement ago or increase the deductions. The USA has primarily increased the deductions, with a tiny adjustment of the retirement age (increasing it only 2 years over several decades). We would be better off if they moved back the normal retirement age at least another 3 to 5 years (for the payment portion – given the broken health care system in the USA retaining medicare ages as they are is wise).

In the case of early retirement, a benefit is reduced 5/9 of one percent for each month (6.7% annually) before normal retirement age, up to 36 months. If the number of months exceeds 36, then the benefit is further reduced 5/12 of one percent per month (5% annually).

For delaying your payments after you have reached normal social security retirement age increases payments by 8% annually (there were lower amounts earlier but for people deciding today that is the figure to use).

Lets take a quick look at a simple example:

Social security increases the monthly payment each year by the calculated inflation rate – I am going to ignore that in the example (to make my life easier).

Lets say your normal retirement age is 65 and your calculated monthly payment was $1,000. If you start collecting at age 65, after 13 years you have received $156,000. If you delayed for 2 years and started collecting when you were 67 after 11 years of payments (so to the same age of 78) you have received $153,965 (and your monthly payment each month is 16% higher than under the original scenario – so the longer you live the more you make).

So in this example it takes a bit over 13 years to break even for delaying by 2 years (while in reality thing are a bit more complicated this is a decent estimate). The life expectancy of for a man in the USA at age 65 is 19 years and for a woman is 21 years. So on average people will make a great deal more by delaying the start of social security payments, given the current rules (Congress can change the rules so this may change in the future). If someone is sickly and unlikely to live to the standard life expectancy that may mean delaying the start of payments is not a wise move.

One of the great benefits of delaying the payments is that the higher payments until death addresses a big risk in retirement planning – outliving your savings. Since you may have hundreds of more dollars every month for decades that decreases the amount you have to dip into your retirement principle. Since we don’t know how long we will live, a higher monthly annuity payment will provide the most benefit at the time when you face the largest risk for retirement planning, that of outliving your savings. It provides a bit of insurance against outliving your savings – or at least pushes the date at which that happens further into the future.

Can you pass a Social Security test?

Related: How Much of Current Income to Save for Retirement – Top Nations for Retirement Security of Their Citizens (USA is 19th) – Save What You Can, Increase Savings as You Can Do So – 401(k)s are a Great Way to Save for Retirement – Social Security (USA) Disability Insurance – Our Only Hope: Retiring Later

Take this 8 question social security quiz to test out your knowledge.