The delinquency rate for mortgage loans rose to 9.94% of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter, up 108 basis points from the second quarter of 2009, and up 265 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate breaks the record set last quarter (since 1972).
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.47%, an increase of 17 basis points from the second quarter of 2009 and 150 basis points from one year ago. The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 14.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.
The percentages of loans 90 days or more past due, loans in foreclosure, and foreclosures started all set new record highs. The percentage of loans 30 days past due is still below the record set in the second quarter of 1985.
“Despite the recession ending in mid-summer, the decline in mortgage performance continues. Job losses continue to increase and drive up delinquencies… Over the last year, we have seen the ranks of the unemployed increase by about 5.5 million people, increasing the number of seriously delinquent loans by almost 2 million loans,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist.
“The performance of prime adjustable rate loans, which include pay-option ARMs in the MBA survey, continue to deteriorate with the foreclosure rate on those loans for the first time exceeding the rate for subprime fixed-rate loans. In contrast, both subprime fixed-rate and subprime adjustable rate loans saw decreases in foreclosures.”
This continues the bad news on housing. Though home sales have been picking up, the underlying strength of the housing market remains questionable. Without jobs increasing it is very difficult for the real estate market to recover.
Related: Nearly 10% of Mortgages Delinquent or in Foreclosure (Dec 2008) – Loan Default Rates Increased Dramatically in the 2nd Quarter – Another Wave of Foreclosures Loom (July 2009) – Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record (Sep 2007)
“The outlook is that delinquency rates and foreclosure rates will continue to worsen before they improve. First, it is unlikely the employment picture will get better until sometime next year and even then jobs will increase at a very slow pace. Perhaps more importantly, there is no reason to expect that when the economy begins to add more jobs, those jobs will be in areas with the biggest excess housing inventory and the highest delinquency rates. Second, the number of loans 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure is now a little over 4 million as compared with 3.9 million new and previously occupied homes currently for sale, although there is likely some overlap between the two numbers. The ultimate resolution of these seriously delinquent loans will put added pressure on the hardest hit sections of the country.”
Change from last year (third quarter of 2008)
The delinquency rate increased 250 basis points for prime loans, 639 basis points for subprime loans, 144 basis points for FHA loans, and 80 basis points for VA loans.
The foreclosure inventory rate increased 162 basis points for prime loans, 280 basis points for subprime loans, 100 basis points for FHA loans, and 83 basis points for VA loans.
The foreclosure starts rate increased 35 basis points overall, 53 basis points for prime loans, 36 basis points for FHA loans, and 28 basis points for VA loans. The starts rate decreased 47 basis points for subprime loans.
The seriously delinquent rate increased 339 basis points for prime loans, 912 basis points for subprime loans, 262 basis points for FHA loans, and 161 basis points for VA loans.