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Investing and Economics Blog

Bangalore’s Boomtown Blues

Bangalore’s Boomtown Blues:

The hi-tech industry has also introduced a new phenomenon in Indian life for those who are on-the-up – the weekend break. Previously, everyone spent six days a week in the office, but the high-paid IT workers only do five.
…
Bangalore’s public infrastructure has lagged woefully behind the pace of private sector investment. Every Bangalore IT company has to have a private generator and uninterruptible power supply to cope with the daily power failures of the grid.
January 28th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics

Charity Telemarketers

Give to charity, but do so directly not on calls from telemarketers. Find some good charities. Charity navigator provides statistics and ratings of charities based on how much of the funds raised go to doing the work of the charity versus paying fundraisers, etc.. Telemarketers profit doing charities’ work:

Brigham’s group is one of many state and national charitable organizations that rely on telemarketing companies for fundraising, and those companies keep the vast majority of the money they raise.
…
Then he asked the caller how much money goes to the charity and the caller replied that all of it goes to the charity’s fund, which is technically true. The money is required to be deposited in charity’s bank account – which is how states track charity fundraising – then the charity pays the company’s share back to them. “It’s so deceptive,” he said. “People aren’t going to know that.”
…
Borochoff said that nationally, groups that hire telemarketers keep about a third of the money they solicit. The rest goes to the telemarketers, which incur the expense of compiling caller lists, hiring employees, maintaining calling facilities…

If you want to pay people to call you at home while you are eating dinner, feel free to do so, but if you want to give to charity you should give directly to the charity.

Related: What To Do When A Charity Calls – Stop Dishonest Telemarketers

January 27th, 2007 by John Hunter | 1 Comment | Tags: Financial Literacy, Tips

State of the nation? Broke

State of the nation? Broke:

If you want to correct for the $185 billion collected by Social Security as surplus cash flow in 2006 — that is, the taxes came in today to pay for benefits promised in future years — then you have to look at the on-budget deficit, which Walker calls the “operating deficit.” The on-budget deficit came to $434 billion in 2006. The on-budget deficit shrank from 2005 to 2006, just as the unified budget deficit did, but the drop was much smaller: to $434 billion in fiscal 2006 from $494 in fiscal 2005.

Both of these still understate the size of the deficit. The Bush administration has been adamant about keeping certain costs out of the budget figures. Spending on the war in Iraq, for example, has been included not in budget resolutions but in special emergency spending bills. They are “off budget” in the language of Washington. That spending, estimated by the Congressional Budget Office at $360 billion overall and $95 billion in the fiscal year that ended in October 2006, aren’t in either of these two budget figures. And Iraq funding for fiscal 2007 won’t be included in the budget the president will introduce next month, either.

January 26th, 2007 by John Hunter | 4 Comments | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy, Taxes

Stop Picking Stocks?

Stop Picking Stocks—Immediately! by Henry Blodget. I don’t agree totally with his conclusion but the article is a good read. Definitely the kind of information investors need to know. I do agree that most of the time for 90%+ of the population stock picking doesn’t turn out to be the best financial move. Three counterpoints for why it can make sense: 1) tax smart investing (for buy and hold) 2) investor education (if you pay more attention by buying some individual stocks as part of an entire investment strategy) 3) the Peter Lynch buy what you know small cap strategy (buying companies that you understand better than “wall street” – as a part of an investment portfolio). From the article:

The problem for investors is that even though stock-picking usually hurts returns, it’s extremely interesting and fun. If you are ever to wean yourself of this bad habit, therefore, the first step is to understand why it’s so rarely successful. The short answer is that the overall market provides most investment returns, not particular stock picks, so most stock pickers get credit for gains that came merely from being invested in stocks generally. Second, competition among stock pickers is so intense that it is extraordinarily difficult for any one competitor to get a consistent edge.

Related: Curious Cat Investment Bookstore including: The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham with forward by Warren Buffett and Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

January 23rd, 2007 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Financial Literacy, Investing, Stocks

World Saving Glut – Effect of Oil Price Declines

Do lower oil prices mean the end of the saving glut?:

I am not sure whether there is a global savings glut or a global drought in non-residential investment or a bit of both. But I am quite confident that there is a savings glut in China. Savings seems to be above 50% of China’s GDP – which is nuts. And most of that isn’t household savings. There is no investment drought in China.

There is also clearly a savings glut in the oil exporting countries. Lahart – drawing on work by Higgins, Klitgaard and Lerman of the New York Fed – notes that the oil exporters saved about ½ the surge in their oil export revenue over the past few years. The result: the current account surplus of many oil exporters surged to over 30% of their GDP.
…
The oil exporters seem to have gotten noticeably less frugal over time. They were very frugal in 2004. A bit less frugal in 2005. And even less frugal in 2006.

As usual a good post by Brad Setser. The details of understanding the “savings glut” get complicated but essentially the idea is that huge savings from China, OPEC countries… create huge sums looking for investments (and fund the huge USA debts – public and private). And to some economists create the market for the debt (for example, without the savings glut their belief is there would not have been money to finance the huge questionable mortgage market over the last few year). As stated in, The Global Savings Glut:

Generally, the flow of surplus global savings to the United States has caused Americans to spend more and save less. In recent speeches, Bernanke — a member of the Federal Reserve Board and nominated as head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers — has shown how. In the 1990s, some of the savings surplus went into the hot U.S. stock market, boosting prices further. Feeling wealthier — because their stock portfolios had fattened — Americans decided they could save less and shop more.

And nearly all economist agree the “savings glut” creates the very low interest rates we have seen the last few years around the world.

Related: The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit by Ben Bernanke – Savings Glut (The self-serving explanation for America’s bad habits) by Daniel Gross – Global Savings Glut Revisited – The Savings Glut

January 20th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics, Saving

Earn more, spend more, want more

Earn more, spend more, want more:

It results in an obsessive, envious keeping-up-with-the-Joneses state of mind that increases our vulnerability to emotional disorders, and is responsible for rising levels of depression, addiction, violence and anxiety in the developed world. It is, I believe, a contagious disease of the middle classes.

It does seem many people lose focus on happiness and instead focus on buying more things. This is something that I believe is a problem.

January 18th, 2007 by John Hunter | 1 Comment | Tags: Financial Literacy, Saving

Social Security Trust Fund

The Washington Post really doesn’t like Social Security … by Brad Setser

Best I can tell, Social Security is in the best financial shape of any federal program. It is in far better future shape than Medicare. And it is in way better shape than the portion of the government that isn’t financed by the payroll tax. That part of the government has a $434 billion deficit. Social Security, by contrast, has a $185b cash flow surplus. Social Security’s revenues exceed its expenditures – and will continue to do so for several years. Its financial assets are growing – they will top $2 trillion at the end of this year.

This is not the way the story is normally told. Social Security is actually in good shape for at least 30 years. That doesn’t mean it is not a big problem after that but Brad Setser makes a good point that the huge increase in the rest of the debt has really made that problem seem minor. The main point? We need to fix the rest of the budget mess, and while I still think Social Security needs adjustment really that is not as important as fixing the rest of the spending money the government doesn’t have.

Related: Estate Tax Repeal

January 16th, 2007 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Economics, quote, Retirement

Minimum Wage Example

For $7.93 an Hour, It’s Worth a Trip Across a State Line

Just eight miles separate this town on the Washington side of the state border from Post Falls on the Idaho side. But the towns are nearly $3 an hour apart in the required minimum wage. Washington pays the highest in the nation, just under $8 an hour, and Idaho has among the lowest, matching 21 states that have not raised the hourly wage beyond the federal minimum of $5.15
…
the state’s major business lobby, the Association of Washington Business, is no longer fighting the minimum-wage law, which is adjusted every year in line with the consumer price index. “You don’t see us screaming out loud about this,” said Don Brunell, president of the trade group, which represents 6,300 members. “It’s almost a no-brainer,” Mr. Brunell said, that the federal minimum should go higher. Association officials say they would like to see some flexibility for rural and small-town businesses, however.
January 11th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics

When the lowest pay rises, what happens?

When the lowest pay rises, what happens?

Still, when all the effects are tallied up, economists say that the lowest-wage workers do get a real pay raise.

No kidding. Other effects are a bit trickier but that one is not tough to figure out.

His model suggests some of the complex ripple effects – and the possible magnitude of changes. The study predicts that, two years after the minimum of $7.25 goes into effect, total employment in the US would fall by 0.17 percent. That’s roughly the loss of one job in every 600. The pay gain for workers affected by the wage hike might approach 8 percent.

It is true jobs can be lost but at low rates that effect is very small. As the unemployment rate rises the job losses would increase with similar raises in the minimum wage. Raising the minimum wage to $7.25 now is a good idea – it should have been raised earlier.

January 10th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy

Living on Less

I make $6.50 an hour. Am I poor? by Karen Datko:

In a matter of months, I went from a comfortable life with decent pay and health insurance to a $6.50-an-hour job with no insurance, no furniture and just enough resources to keep the wolf from the door. I no longer buy anything unless it’s absolutely essential. I spend $40 at the supermarket and make it last for more than two weeks. I never turn down a free meal. I’ve learned to graciously accept money, furniture, elk meat and encouragement from worried friends.

I am no longer proud.

Pride should not be tied to how much money you have. It is, often, but it shouldn’t be. If you act foolishly or you waste money or you act irresponsibly being ashamed is possibly reasonable. When you have extra money, you can waste some and not feel ashamed because you have some to waste. But when you are doing your best you should be proud no matter how much money you have. Buying more pairs of shoes, or fancy coffee or a new video game or the full cable TV package… is not what you should take pride in.
Read more

January 7th, 2007 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Financial Literacy, Saving

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