Do lower oil prices mean the end of the saving glut?:
There is also clearly a savings glut in the oil exporting countries. Lahart – drawing on work by Higgins, Klitgaard and Lerman of the New York Fed – notes that the oil exporters saved about ½ the surge in their oil export revenue over the past few years. The result: the current account surplus of many oil exporters surged to over 30% of their GDP.
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The oil exporters seem to have gotten noticeably less frugal over time. They were very frugal in 2004. A bit less frugal in 2005. And even less frugal in 2006.
As usual a good post by Brad Setser. The details of understanding the “savings glut” get complicated but essentially the idea is that huge savings from China, OPEC countries… create huge sums looking for investments (and fund the huge USA debts – public and private). And to some economists create the market for the debt (for example, without the savings glut their belief is there would not have been money to finance the huge questionable mortgage market over the last few year). As stated in, The Global Savings Glut:
And nearly all economist agree the “savings glut” creates the very low interest rates we have seen the last few years around the world.
Related: The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit by Ben Bernanke – Savings Glut (The self-serving explanation for America’s bad habits) by Daniel Gross – Global Savings Glut Revisited – The Savings Glut