While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January, current job losses still average more than the per month rate of 150,000 during the last recession.
Also, remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession.
So we can expect that job losses will continue until the end of 2010 at the earliest.
There’s really just one hope for our leaders to turn things around: a bold prescription that increases the fiscal stimulus with another round of labor-intensive, shovel-ready infrastructure projects, helps fiscally strapped state and local governments and provides a temporary tax credit to the private sector to hire more workers.
Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.
Roubini has predicted negative economic results and been right for the last few years. I am uncertain about with the short term economic outlook. I can certainly imagine the slow job recovery he predicts will happen. I am hopeful we will see jobs increasing before that but the news in the last few months has not made that prospect seem more likely. And the long term outlook is getting worse with the huge government debt being added as a burden for the future economy.