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Investing and Economics Blog

Revised GDP Calculations for China

The great fall of China

World Bank, which published updated statistics on the economic output of 146 countries. China’s economy, said the bank, is smaller than it thought. About 40% smaller. China, it turns out, isn’t a $10-trillion economy on the brink of catching up with the United States. It is a $6-trillion economy, less than half our size.
…
Unfortunately, comparing hundreds and even thousands of prices in almost 150 economies all over the world is a difficult thing to do. Concerned that its purchasing-power-parity numbers were out of whack, the World Bank went back to the drawing board and, with help from such countries as India and China, reviewed the data behind its GDP adjustments.

It learned that there is less difference between China’s domestic prices and those in such countries as the United States than previously thought. So the new purchasing-power-parity adjustment is smaller than the old one — and $4 trillion in Chinese GDP melts into air.

Related: China Economy Report by the World Bank – Accuracy of Manufacturing Data – Manufacturing Jobs Data: USA and China – Curious Cat Economics Web Search

December 30th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics

Paul Krugman Speaks at Google

Paul Krugman, who was named Columnist of the Year by Editor and Publisher magazine, writes a twice-weekly column for the op-ed page of the New York Times. He is a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University, and the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 professional journal articles. In recognition of his work, he has received the John Bates Clark Medal from the American Economic Association, an award given every two years to the top economist under the age of 40. The Economist said he is “the most celebrated economist of his generation.”

Related: Google Tech Webcasts – Steven Levitt (Freakonomics author) – Income Inequality in the USA

December 22nd, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics

Bad Practice: .05% Interest From a Stock Broker

Unfortunately it is not uncommon to find companies that choose to line their pockets at the expense of customers. I wish we could find companies that want to provide good value and make some profit by doing so. My stock broker used to allow clients idle cash to be invested and earn a reasonably decent rate (not Vanguard money market fund but you know for a company that doesn’t want to provide the best customer value a least something remotely approaching fair). This year (or last year) they stopped doing so and switched to the following rate structure:

Dollar Range Interest Rate Annual Percentage Yield
$0.01-$4,999 0.04999% 0.05%
$5,000-$24,999 0.04999% 0.05%
$25,000-$99,999 0.29959% 0.30%

You might think they make an error and mean 5% and just put the decimal in the wrong place but you would be wrong. It used to be leaving your money in money market accounts with the broker wasn’t great but the 50+ basis point hit was worth the convenience. Now HSBC pays 4.25% for online savings. So at 100 times what the broker pays they would be slightly higher than HSBC. Sorry paying 1/85 of what HSBC pays is not just talking a bit of your clients money for yourself. That is obscene. You can no longer trust that your stock broker will only talk 50+ basis points of you money market earnings. Take a look at your account and setup an account with HSBC, Vanguard (current yield 4.64%) or something similar that pays a reasonable rate for any short term savings.

If your broker pays less than 2% on a money market account of $5,000 that is a scary sign. What else they might be doing that isn’t so obviously unfair is difficult to know. Getting above 4% for a cash saving account now is pretty good, in my opinion.

Related: Customer Hostility from Discover Card – Frugality Versus Better Returns – Learning About Personal Loans

December 21st, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Financial Literacy, Personal finance, Tips

$8,000 Per Gallon

$8,000-per-gallon printer ink leads to antitrust lawsuit

For most printer companies, ink is the bread and butter of their business. The price of ink for HP ink-jet printers can be as much as $8,000 per gallon, a figure that makes gas-pump price gouging look tame. HP is currently the dominant company in the printing market, and a considerable portion of the company’s profits come from ink.

The printer makers have been waging an all-out war against third-party vendors that sell replacement cartridges at a fraction of the price. The tactics employed by the printer makers to maintain monopoly control over ink distribution for their printing products have become increasingly aggressive. In the past, we have seen HP, Epson, Lenovo and other companies attempt to use patents and even the Digital Millennium Copyright Act in their efforts to crush third-party ink distributors.

The companies have also turned to using the ink equivalent of DRM, the use of microchips embedded in ink cartridges that work with a corresponding technical mechanism in the printer that blocks the use of unauthorized third-party ink.

Tip – by a printer from a company that doesn’t rip you off as much for ink: The Kodak 5300 All-in-One Printer, which uses ultra low-priced ink to help you save up to 50 percent. Kodak has made the strategic decision to compete with the entrenched printing companies by not ripping off customers as much.

Related: Kodak Debuts Printers With Inexpensive Cartridges – Price Discrimination in the Internet Age – Zero Ink Printing – Open Source 3-D Printing

December 18th, 2007 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Financial Literacy, Tips

UK Real Estate Prices Decline

London Leads the Biggest U.K. House-Price Drop for Five Years

The average U.K. asking price fell 3.2 percent to 232,396 pounds ($473,437) from November, the largest decline since the survey of real-estate agents’ listings began in 2002, Britain’s most-used property Web site said today. London home costs dropped 6.8 percent, also the most recorded by Rightmove.
…
Prices in the London region fell an average of 28,099 pounds on the month and all 32 areas of the capital in the survey had declines, led by the districts of Hackney, Tower Hamlets and Islington, Rightmove said. Home costs in Kensington and Chelsea, where Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich lives, fell 4.9 percent to 1.65 million pounds.

Related: Fourteen Fold Increase in 31 Years

December 17th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Real Estate

Fed Plans To Curb Mortgage Excesses

Fed Plans To Curb Mortgage Excesses, way late but at least they may do something.

Before Ben S. Bernanke became chairman nearly two years ago, “the Fed racked up a long record of neglect in regards to predatory lending,” said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), who introduced his version of mortgage-lending reform this week

Yes the Fed should have taken more aggressive action. But the legislators should not throw stones at others – what have they done? A recent example – they want to lower the down payment required for FHA loans to 1.5%. I can’t take anyone’s opinion, of how others should have behaved seriously, when they vote for such legislation in the midst of a subprime mortgage loan crisis. What are these people thinking. Ok, everyone now says loan standards were to lax, people stopped putting 20% or even 10% down on home purchase. Ok, lets blame the Fed and then lower the down payment required for federal backed mortgages to 1.5% (from the already very low 3%). Did this crazy legislation just barely squeak by? Nope, passed the senate 93-1! Lets have the politicians explain what they have done right before they just criticize others. Their game of blaming others while doing next to nothing positive themselves is sad.

“If you are too severe or too draconian, you are going to eliminate value in the marketplace,” said Steve O’Connor, senior vice president of government affairs for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Another real voice of reason. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) really expects anyone to pay any attention to their opinions. They have someone managed to create a threat to the economy so large that $90 a barrel oil is not the threat to the economy people are worried about. I think anyone that reads these opinions from the MBA and doesn’t see them as self serving statements and nothing else should be ashamed of themselves. Shouldn’t the Washington Post at least include some follow up question on why the public should listen to that organization. What was there senior vice president saying 5 years ago to ensure the economy wasn’t threatened by the reckless action of their members? We seem to have forgotten that individuals and organization should be held accountable for their actions. Quote some people that are not only concerned with their benefits without regard for what it does to everyone else. If that is not what they are doing, lets see 5 policy recommendations they have made in the last 5 years that are good for America and bad for you and your members. I don’t think the rest of us believe what is good for the MBA is good for America.

Related: Why do we Have a Federal Reserve Board? – Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders – How Not to Convert Equity – Washington Paying Out Money it Doesn’t Have – Legislation to Address the Worst Credit Card Fee Abuse (Maybe) – Lobbyists Keep Tax Off Billion Dollar Private Equities Deals and On For Our Grandchildren

December 15th, 2007 by John Hunter | 1 Comment | Tags: Economics, Real Estate

Randomization in Sports

Here is my comment on, The Sun Devil Suggestion System a few days ago:

My father was a professor at the University of Wisconsin. I remember one time he wanted the football coach to randomly select the play for certain situations. They would have say 4 plays for 3rd and 3. Instead of making the decision of which to run he thought they should just randomly pick from those 4. The idea was that would eliminate the coaches’ bias which the defense could predict and plan for. The theory was being more unpredictable would lead to more success. They didn’t go for it.

Here is a post on the Freakonomics blog today, Why Don’t Sports Teams Use Randomization? by Ian Ayres:

Levitt and others have tested the degree to which professional tennis and soccer players are successful at playing randomized strategies. But it remains a mystery to me why coaches don’t have random number generators (any laptop would do) to help them pick the next pitch in baseball, or the next play they will call in football.

He then goes on to discuss an equally interesting but different topic faulting coaches for failing to take enough risk in football – in going for a first down on fourth down. That supports my gut instincts. The “conventional wisdom” seems mainly about not “seeming stupid” not the best long term results.

Related: Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer – Minimax Play at Wimbledon

December 12th, 2007 by John Hunter | 4 Comments | Tags: Cool, Economics

Capital Crescent Trail Photos – Washington DC

I have posted some photos from my walk last year on the Capital Crescent Trail in Washington DC.

3 Vultures on the Potomac River photo of Blue Flower

The Capital Crescent Trail goes along the Potomac River in Washington DC (on the C&O towpath). I hiked first along the Arlington, Virginia side of the Potomac (starting at the north end of the Teddy Roosevelt Island Parking lot) then crossing over at Chain Bridge and heading back down the Capital Crescent trail and over the Key Bridge to and making a loop hike out of it.

More photos: Shaker Village of Pleasant Hill, Kentucky – Paris, France – Glacier National Park – The Cloisters Museum and the Museum of Modern Art – Great Falls National Park

December 10th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Cool

Freezing Mortgage Rates

“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” J. Paul Getty

Individual mortgage holders are in the first situation; together they are in the second.

I want to look into this whole situation of freezing some adjustable rates (that are scheduled to increase for adjustable rate mortgages) more – because I don’t really understand what is actually involved in the “agreement.” But my impression is that the government is paying nothing, giving no other incentives (like reducing taxes owed). With that being the case I can’t see why some people think it is bad. some people are saying it is unfair to people that were careful They don’t get this benefit. That makes little sense to me. One of the things you have to learn about investing and personal finance is there are no guaranties. You enter into mortgages with your best guess about what will happen (as the lender or the one receiving the loan).

From my very surface understanding of what is involved is that the government used some moral suasion to try and get lenders to step up and provide more favorable terms than originally agreed to. I not that confident such a think we end up happening in practice but I don’t have a problem with the attempt. It is an interesting case where no single mortgage holder owes enough to harm the lenders but together the class does hold enough to harm them. So the lenders have gotten themselves into a situation where the problem is not just one for the mortgage holders but one that could harm them (because they have too much lent to the class – risky residential mortgages).

The risk of a cascading bad impact. One waive of foreclosures triggers another and another… Thus creating huge losses for lenders. For that reason it makes sense to me that if (which is a huge if) they class of lenders can all agree to sacrifice some to avoid starting the runaway cascade of foreclosures they may benefit. Of course each individual lender would likely benefit if just everyone but them sacrificed.

It seems to me if there really is some significant amount of freezing of loan rates that will have a significant impact on how much harm the foreclosures do to real estate prices and the economy. And so I can see how such an agreement could benefit everyone. But as I say I really need to read more about all this. And I am skeptical that individual lenders will try to limit there sacrifices and as each cuts back there sacrifice the risk of the cascade increases.

An actually bailout – government money paying off those that took bad financial risks I would be very reluctant to support.

Related: How Not to Convert Equity – Housing Inventory Glut – mortgage terms explained – 30 year fixed Mortgage Rates – Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record – Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders – Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? (April 2004)
Read more

December 8th, 2007 by John Hunter | 1 Comment | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy, Personal finance

Add to Your Roth IRA

If you haven’t added money to your Roth Individual Retirement Account for this year yet – go ahead and do so now. Given the state of retirement planning for the vast majority of those in the USA there is a good chance your retirement is the area of your financial life that will most benefit from more resources. The other action that is likely worthwhile is to cut your spending but we will leave that for other posts.

If your employer offers matching on your 401(k) or 403(b) that may well be an even higher priority. There is almost never a decent reason not to add at least 5% of your income to a retirement account matched by your employer. Make sure, as the amount grows above $100,000 that it is invested in a diversified manor (not all in the stock of your employer or…).

For 2007 the most you can add to your Roth IRA or just IRA is $4,000 ($5,000 for those 50 years old or older). Next year that maximum increases to $5,000 ($6,000 for those 50 and up). If you have already added the maximum that is matched to your 401k and have added the maximum to your IRA for this year get ready to add the $5,000 to your IRA for 2008 in January (you do have to make sure you don’t earn too much to be eligible to add funds – pretty much you have to be over $100,000 in income, $150,000 on a joint return, before you have to worry but look up the details yourself). By adding the money to your IRA early in the year you will get another year or tax free growth (for the Roth or tax deferred growth from the regular IRA).

For more details on the rules on IRAs see the links we provide on the Curious Cat Investment Dictionary IRA page.

Related: Saving for Retirement – Roth IRAs a Smart bet for Younger Set – Our Only Hope: Retiring Later

December 5th, 2007 by John Hunter | 3 Comments | Tags: Personal finance, Retirement, Saving, Tips

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