Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival: we highlight recent personal finance, investing and economics blog posts I found interesting.

• “New Normal” math: How your investing plans must change – “I don’t think the implications of changing stocks’ rate of return from 10% to 5% have sunk in. We acknowledge that stock returns will be poor, and yet all of our retirement advice – save 10% of your income… withdraw 4% in retirement – stays the same.”
• Manufacturing Output as a Percent of GDP by Country by John Hunter – “For the 14 biggest manufacturing countries in 2008, the overall manufacturing GDP percentage was 23.7% of GDP in 1980 and dropped to 17% in 2008… USA economy dropped from 21% in 1980 to 18% in 1990, 16% in 2000 and 13% in 2008.”
• Masters of Earning More – “Ben actually loves his full-time job, but still freelances on the side. Earning more isn’t just for people who hate their job or are in severe credit-card debt. He freelances because he enjoys it.”
• Five plays on the China Middle Class Explosion by Cody Willard – “The middle class in China now stands at nearly 25% of the population (which is 50 million new members a year!).”
• Who Educates The Investors? by Bill Waddell – “Who would want to listen to the insights of someone concerning a manufacturing investment who knows so little about the current state of manufacturing that he thinks Toyota introduced lean to reduce working capital over a five year period?”
• Refinance Now, If You Can by David Weliver – “If you currently owe $200,000 on your mortgage at 5.75%, refinancing could save you more than $100 a month on your payment and reduce the interest you pay over the life of the loan.” (rates are down a bit more since this example was posted – John)
• A Cheap Internet Stock With High Dividend Yield – “stock offers an impressive 6.8% dividend yield and yet the stock only trades at 5x consensus 2011 earnings estimates.”
• Personal Finance Basics: Avoid Debt by John Hunter – “Debt is often toxic to personal financial success. The simple step you can take to avoid the problems many face is to just not buy things until you save up for them. If you want some new shoes or new Droid Incredible or to go see a football game (American or World Cup style) that is fine. Just save up the money and then spend it.”

Related: Curious Cat investing articles – Curious Cat Investing and Economics Custom Search Engine – Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival #5

The Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival highlight recent interesting personal finance, investing and economics blog posts.

• The money made by Microsoft, Apple and Google, 1985 until today – “In terms of profit Apple was ahead of Microsoft in the 1980s, but was then passed and left behind. This chart actually reveals that Apple’s upswing the last few years is the first time the company’s profits have really taken off in a big way. Another interesting observation is how closely the profits of Apple and Google match, even though Apple’s revenues are significantly higher.”
• Real Estate and Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates 1998-2009 by John Hunter – “That last half of 2009 saw residential real estate delinquencies increased 143 basis points to 10.14% and commercial real estate delinquencies increase 98 basis points to 8.81%. Consumer loan delinquencies decreased with credit card delinquencies down 18 basis points to 6.4% and other consumer loan delinquencies down 19 basis points to 3.49%.”
• The Principle That Can Make You Rich or Keep You Broke by David Weliver – “Unfortunately, inertia can also keep us at rest; the same principle that helps us achieve positive goals can make it increasingly difficult to escape bad habits.” (John: Very true, see my post on habits).
• Why do we work so much? – “The countries that consistently rank as having the world’s “happiest people” also tend to work fewer hours than people in the U.S… Most corporate ladders are designed to reward employees with money instead of time. Assuming we only want money to use as a tool for happiness, this makes no sense.”
• How Does Apple Become a $300 Billion Company? by Eric Bleeker – “The more Apple can look like the Microsoft of the mobile world, the more it will be worth. Commanding a market with even half the dominance Microsoft did with operating systems is a once-in-a-generation opportunity, but I’m not so sure the mobile world is built in a way that’ll allow that.”
• Top Fed Official Wants To Break Up Megabanks, Stop The Fed From Guaranteeing Wall Street’s Profits by Shahien Nasiripour – “I don’t think we have any business guaranteeing Wall Street spreads,” Hoenig said. “We need to recognize that and address it by removing these guaranteed extremely low rates. I think it’s extremely important that we do that, and not create the conditions for speculative activity and a new crisis down the road.”
• Evaluating Microfinance by Michael Frank – “I decided to use a variation on the “waiting list-control group” method regularly used in medical studies. My evaluation design requires a call for loan applicants in the most similar nearby community that does not have a similar microfinance program already present.”

Read more

Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival: we highlight interesting recent personal finance, investing and economics blog posts.

• The 4% rule and other fallacies of retirement planning – “I might try a 5% withdrawal rate, which according to the Trinity study, would give me an 80% chance of not outliving my money. As time goes on, I’ll adjust up or down depending on what life and the market throws at me.”
• The lesson of the Greek crisis: Every government cheats and no one wants to know by James Jubak – “The IMF projects that U.S. net debt as a percentage of GDP will be 66.8% in 2010, more than twice that for Canada, and gross debt will be 93.6% of GDP, still almost 14 percentage points above Canada’s.”
• Renting 101: What You Should Know Before You Sign by Austin Morgan – “Renter’s insurance helps protect the items in your apartment in case of theft or damage. The renter’s insurance will also cover you in case a visitor in your apartment gets injured or their items get damaged.”
• In the USA 43% Have Less Than $10,000 in Retirement Savings by John Hunter – “if you plan ahead you have a long time for compounding to work in your favor. Unfortunately most people continue to fail to make even the most minimal efforts to save for retirement”
• The US Has A Spending Problem, China Has A Savings Problem – “Back in 2005 the savings rate in the US dropped to below 1%. That’s sad considering up until the mid 80s we were always above 5% and crested 10% a few times… Our savings rate is currently just under 5%… The savings rate in China is something like 30%; and this number has grown in recent years, “
• When will the Fed raise interest rates? by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko – “given current information and barring political or populist pressures, one can reasonably expect the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates toward the end of this year in its attempt to balance the risks of higher inflation against prolonging the current economic downturn.”

Read more

Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival: we highlight recent personal finance, investing and economics blog posts we found interesting.

• 5 Financial Milestones to Aim for By Age 30 – 1. Contribute to a Roth and a Traditional IRA… 2. Build Six Months Worth of Expenses in your Emergency Fund… 3. Make the Credit Card Companies Hate You…
• USA again the leading manufacturing country, data of the Largest Manufacturing Countries in 2008 by John Hunter – The USA’s share of the manufacturing output, of the countries that manufactured over $185 billion in 2008, 28% in 1990, 28% in 1995, 32% in 2000, 28% in 2005… 24% in 2008. China’s share has grown from 4% in 1990… 10% in 2000… to 18% in 2008.
• Afraid to stay in but scared to get out? Join the club by James Jubak – “If you have to keep $60,000 in cash so that you can sleep at night knowing that you’ve got your financial bases cover, then the loss of a potential gain on that money is, in my book, worth it. I’ve sold into this rally to sock away my kids’ tuition for 2010 and my 2010 tax payment.”
• Invented, Completely New Meaning of the “Invisible Hand” by Gavin Kennedy – “In fact, Stigler explicitly criticises ‘legends’ of the ‘naïve doctrine’ that Smith should be associated with notions that ‘whenever a person seeks to serve his own ends, he invariably serves the ends of society’.”
• The Quiet Danger of Non-Inflation-Adjusted Stock Returns by Stephen Dubner – “the ‘real-real’ value of stocks does make you appreciate how so many people got so jazzed about the spike in housing prices over the last decade: it’’ exciting to see inflation working in your favor day after day…”
• Think You Don’t Need Health Insurance? Think Again – “Very bad medical problems can and do happen to many of us – maybe even you. Those very bad medical problems can be very expensive and potentially ruin one’s financial future if they do not have adequate health insurance.”
• Don’t Be Suckered By Stock Market Rally In 2010 – “For those who do not want to invest, it is best to save up your money and wait for better opportunities since valuations are high right now… I suggest fixed deposits as the best option to preserve your principal.”
• Resolving U.S. Indebtedness: Various Scenarios by Arnold Kling – “Some major technologies, probably either wet or dry nanotech, produce so much economic growth that the ratio of debt to GDP stays under control. I give this a 20 percent chance… Inflate away the debt with moderate inflation… I gives this a 15 percent chance….”

Related: Curious Cat Investing and Economics Custom Search Engine – Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival #2

Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival: we highlight recent blog posts we found interesting.

• Dividend stocks that beat the market by Jim Jubak – “A hefty dividend isn’t enough to prevent major capital damage when a sector takes that kind of punishment. Another lesson is that a dividend income portfolio needs more frequent care and feeding than I gave this one.”
• Get Real On The Economic Recovery And Stock Market Rally – “Another rapid slump in global economy is far from impossible. Double dip recession could arise from sky-high public debts or another financial crisis sparked by delinquency in prime mortgage loans, risky commercial sector or derivatives.”
• Don’t Miss Out on a Good Investment Today Because You Missed a Better Investment Earlier by John Hunter – Instead of just missing out because I made a mistake and didn’t buy a stock at a lower price earlier, I have learned to accept that buying at the higher price available today can be the best option…
• How much should be in your emergency fund? by Patrick – “Some people recommend at least 3-6 months living expenses, some recommend 6 months to a year, and some recommend a few thousand dollars. In my opinion, this is a very personal decision and should be based on your individual circumstances.”
• Weakon 238: Stock Beta by Philip – ” If the beta comes back 1 or higher then you are relying on the market for your returns and are not protected against a down market. That isn’t a bad thing if you’re tolerant to risk, the beta on my 401(k) is 1.3.”
• Government Debt Around the World as Percentage of GDP 1990-2007 by John Hunter – The overall OECD debt to GDP ratio decreased from 77% in 2005 to 75% in 2007. The USA moved in the opposite direction increasing from 62% to 63%

Read more

Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival, we hope you enjoy the following posts we share here.

• Does Earning More Trump Frugality? – “Which way is better? I think there’s a different answer for each person, actually. For some people, the bird in the hand is better – if you have a career that isn’t helped by such networking, for example. For others, building your presence might be more valuable than a frugality task.”
• Existing Home Sales Far Worse Than Advertised by Barry Ritholtz – “While the very worst of housing trouble may be behind us, we are still looking at falling prices and increasing foreclosures. The Housing getting worse more slowly camp is ignoring the massive Federal subsidies required to get worse more slowly.”
• Loan Delinquency Rates Increased Dramatically in the 2nd Quarter by John Hunter – “Default rates on commercial (up another 151 basis points) and residential (up 93 basis points) real estate continued to increase dramatically in the second quarter. Credit card default rates increased but only by 20 basis points.”
• Don’t Bet On A V-shaped Economy Recovery – “Banks’ restrictive lending, unemployment, stagnant wages and falling home values resulted in reluctance of households to borrow money for spending. With debt weary US consumers (which accounts for 70% US GDP), the US economy and export markets will not be in a hurry to rush into a V-shaped recovery even as the recession eases.”
• Tips for Managing Your 401k Plan by Patrick – “Max out company match. If your company offers matching contributions, then you should contribute at least the amount of the full company match if you can afford it. The company match is part of your benefits package and is essentially free money.”
• Deciphering the GDP Numbers by Philip – “Federal Spending: Federal Spending grew 10.9%, as compared with a drop of 3% in the previous quarter. This number tells you what a big cushion the economy got from the various stimulus programs that the government ran. Without the stimulus, the numbers would have been much worse than they were”

Read more

Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival, we hope you enjoy the following posts we share here.

• Warren Buffet On An Investment News Channel by Robin Bal – “I could see that the mere mention of a time scale like three to five years had derailed the interviewer’s thought process. Coming as she did from a world where three to five hours or at most three to five days is the standard unit of time, the idea of an investor talking in years seemed to have thrown a spanner in her works.”
• Loan Default Rates: 1998-2009 by John Hunter – “In the 4th quarter of 2007 residential real estate default rates were 3.02% by the 4th quarter of 2008 they were 6.34% and in the 1st quarter of this year they were 7.91%”
• Key Factors Affecting Long-Term Growth in Federal Spending by Douglas Elmendorf – “Two factors underlie the projected increase in federal spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security as a share of GDP: rapid growth in health care costs and an aging population.”
• Will the Chinese Keep Saving? by Rachel Ziemba – “Should export-oriented ‘surplus’ countries like China keep saving and keep trying to export demand, the reduction in imbalances could actually exacerbate the global economic contraction or contribute to a more sluggish recovery. “
• Use Your Health Insurance! by David Weliver – “So if you’re worried about losing your job (and insurance) or anticipate making a life change that will leave you uninsured, get in to see a doctor while you are still covered.”
• Where is the externality here? by Matt Nolan – “They are paid less because their marginal product is lower, and they are willing to be paid less because the benefit they receive from consuming alcohol is sufficient compensation – this is a completely internalised decision for the drinker isn’t it, so where is the social cost.”
• Quibbles With Quants – “What the models failed to capture was that humans don’t behave in simple, predictable and uncorrelated ways. It’s impossible to overstate the importance of the way these models cope with correlation of peoples’ psychology. To sum it up: they don’t. Let me know if that’s too complex an analysis for the mathematical masters of the universe.”
• Goldman’s Back, and Why We Should Be Worried by Robert Reich – “The decision to bail out AIG resulted in a $13 billion giveaway to Goldman because Goldman was an AIG counterparty. Indeed, Goldman executives and alumni have played crucial roles in guiding the Wall Street bailout from the start. So the fact that Goldman has reverted to its old ways in the market suggests it has every reason to believe it can revert to its old ways in politics, should its market strategies backfire once again — leaving the rest of us once again to pick up the pieces.”

Welcome to the second edition of our investing and economics carnival.

• How Does the Current Crisis Compare to the Great Depression? by Price Fishback – “How does this compare to the Great Depression? We won’t know the final outcome of this recession for a while, but I can safely say that the current situation is nowhere near as bad as the situation during the 1930′s.”
• US GDP and imports by Matt Nolan – “Now, this doesn’t actually make sense as a measure to look at. Why? Well when we measure GDP we are interested in ‘domestic production’…”
• 100th Entrepreneur Loan by John Hunter – “Participating with Kiva is a great antidote to reading about the unethical ‘leaders’ taking huge sums to run their companies into the ground (or even just taking obscene sums to maintain their company). The opportunity to give real capitalists an chance at a better life is wonderful.”
• The Best 15 Financial iPhone Apps by David Weliver – “More than a dozen great financial apps for the iPhone make tracking and managing your personal finances on the go as easy as texting. Want to enlist your iPhone to help you get richer?”
• Bolster Your Emergency Fund In A Prolonged Crisis – “To prepare for the worst, we should picture an unemployed scenario and get serious about bulking up our emergency fund to meet at least six to eight months of expenses.”
• How to make money without a job and why you should – “There are two more advantages to alternative income besides diversification of income sources. First of all is the expansion of skills… You are learning something new, and making it that much more likely that you’ll be able to add further income streams…
• Five Low-Risk Stocks For Gen Y – “There are much better alternatives for the ultra-conservative Gen Y investors than money market accounts, Treasuries and CDs. A conservative strategy focusing on high quality, low risk dividend stocks should significantly out-perform the above investments, with very little incremental long-term risk.”
• 5 easy ways to save money and the environment – “Bottled water is a huge drain on our resources and are grossly overpriced. Reusable water bottles use fewer resources, save you money… Compact fluorescent light bulbs use 25% of the energy of standard incandescent bulbs and usually last 5 years or more…”
• Text Messaging is the Biggest Scam of the 21st Century – “The cost per GB of cable internet is $0.75… the cost per GB of cell phone data $6.00… the cost per GB of text messaging data is $800…”

I decided to add this investing and economics carnival after running the Curious Cat Management Management Improvement Carnival for several years. If you like these posts you may also be interested in the Invest Reddit where a community of those interested in investing submit and rate articles and blog posts.

I have been running the Curious Cat Management Management Improvement Carnival for several years and decided to start one on the investing and economics theme. I hope you enjoy the inaugural edition. If you like these posts you may also be interested in the Invest Reddit where a community of those interested in investing submit and rate articles and blog posts.

• Case-Shiller: Is it Really THAT Bad? by Stan Humphries – “Unfortunately, in combining both foreclosures and non-foreclosures into a single metric, you’re not really getting a good insight into either market. In the current climate, you’re underestimating the decline in value of foreclosed homes and overestimating the decline in value of non-foreclosure homes.”
• This is unquestionably the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s by Brad Setser – “Both the IMF and World Bank are now forecasting an outright fall in global output in 2009… Anything below 2% [growth] is generally considered a global recession.”
• Value Added Tax (VAT): The Pros and Cons by Eric Stinson – “The VAT is also a consumption tax, so there is incentive for you to limit your spending. Like the Fair Tax, if you spend less than you make, you’ll pay less in taxes (all else equal).”
• Face To Face With The Deficit by Scott Bittle – “The public simply will not permit Washington to raise their taxes, change their health insurance, or cut programs without their consent. Nor should they. But the public should understand the rules, too. It’s not enough to complain about red ink and then reject any possible solution.”
• Confusing price discrimination – “Any way I think about it, the discount should either be to all consumers or to students for the entire day. Why would it be only to students in the afternoon?”
• Leave Your Money in Your Retirement Accounts by Patrick – “At this point, the best thing you can do is stick to your retirement savings and investment plans. Continue contributing to your retirement accounts, make sure your asset allocation is set at your desired level, and don’t withdraw your retirement savings.”
• Invisible Hands Explain Nothing: a response to a critic by Gavin Kennedy – “Indeed, Smith gives over 60 instances in Books I and II of Wealth Of Nations where the actions of individuals for their own ‘gain’ have less than beneficial consequences on those around them”

A couple of my posts have appeared in other carnivals recently: California Unemployment Rate Climbs to 10.5 Percent in the Money Hacks Carnival and Add to Your 401(k) and IRA in the Carnival of Personal Finance.

Related: Money Hacks Carnival #50 – Curious Cat Investing and Economics Search