Mortgage defaults hit an all-time high in July according to RealtyTrac (the data in this post is from their survey). Last month default notices nationwide were down 8% from the previous month but still up 22% from November 2008, scheduled foreclosure auctions were down 12% from the previous month but still up 32% from November 2008, and bank repossessions were flat from the previous month and down 2% from November 2008. The housing market is currently not getting worse but it is hardly improving rapidly.
“November was the fourth straight month that U.S. foreclosure activity has declined after hitting an all-time high for our report in July, and November foreclosure activity was at the lowest level we’ve seen since February,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.
Four states account for 52% of national foreclosures for the second month in a row: California, Florida, Illinois and Michigan.
Related: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Climb – Over Half of 2008 Foreclosures From Just 35 Counties – Nearly 10% of Mortgages Delinquent or in Foreclosure
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans rose to 9.94% of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter, up 108 basis points from the second quarter of 2009, and up 265 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate breaks the record set last quarter (since 1972).
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.47%, an increase of 17 basis points from the second quarter of 2009 and 150 basis points from one year ago. The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 14.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.
The percentages of loans 90 days or more past due, loans in foreclosure, and foreclosures started all set new record highs. The percentage of loans 30 days past due is still below the record set in the second quarter of 1985.
“Despite the recession ending in mid-summer, the decline in mortgage performance continues. Job losses continue to increase and drive up delinquencies… Over the last year, we have seen the ranks of the unemployed increase by about 5.5 million people, increasing the number of seriously delinquent loans by almost 2 million loans,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist.
“The performance of prime adjustable rate loans, which include pay-option ARMs in the MBA survey, continue to deteriorate with the foreclosure rate on those loans for the first time exceeding the rate for subprime fixed-rate loans. In contrast, both subprime fixed-rate and subprime adjustable rate loans saw decreases in foreclosures.”
This continues the bad news on housing. Though home sales have been picking up, the underlying strength of the housing market remains questionable. Without jobs increasing it is very difficult for the real estate market to recover.
Related: Nearly 10% of Mortgages Delinquent or in Foreclosure (Dec 2008) – Loan Default Rates Increased Dramatically in the 2nd Quarter – Another Wave of Foreclosures Loom (July 2009) – Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record (Sep 2007)
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30 year fixed mortgage rates have declined a bit over the last few months and remain at very low levels.
The poor economy, Unemployment Rate Reached 10.2%, has the Fed continuing massive intervention into the economy. The Fed is keeping the fed funds rate at close to 0% (.12% in October). They also continue to hold massive amounts of long term government and mortgage debt (in order to suppress interest rates on long term bonds – by reducing the supply of such bonds in the market).
I can’t see how lending US dollars, over the long term, at 5%, makes any sense. I would much rather borrow at those rates than lend. If you have not refinanced yet, doing so now may well make sense. And if you are looking at a new real estate purchase, financing a 30 year mortgage sure is attractive at rates close to 5%.
Related: historical comparison of 30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate – Lowest 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates in 37 Years – Jumbo v. Regular Fixed Mortgage Rates: by Credit Score – What are mortgage definitions – Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders
For more data, see graphs of the federal funds rate versus mortgage rates for 1980-1999. Source data: federal funds rates – 30 year mortgage rates
It is a shame that it is no surprise when a bank lies to you. I got a “priority notice” from my mortgage company that my 30 year fixed load could be reduced. They show big huge figures showing current interest rate, new interest rate, potential yearly savings of over $5,000… Complete lies. They are claiming savings with a completely different mortgage, a 5/30 year adjustable rate mortgage (which you have to turn over the paper and note they list “mortgage product: 5/1 ARM” and then know what that means).
Then they go on for a page with all sorts of text seemingly designed to confuse fools. Obviously they try to claim the savings are what is important and the different mortgages, risks of rising interest rates etc. are not important [why don't they just make it a 30 year mortgage at the low rate, if they think the interest rate risk they try to stick the client with is such an unimportant detail that isn't even mentioned on the front page with the "comparison" mortgage rates]).
Anyone that trusts any company that so blatantly tries to fool you is crazy. When they are not shy about using such obviously deceitful tactics you can’t trust them to do much much worse in ways that are very difficult to protect yourself from.
As I have said before, don’t trust your bank. More than any other companies I see, financial institution, treat customers as fools to be fleeced not customers to provide value to. It really is amazing people defend banks paying obscene bonuses to those that are able to fool financial illiterates into stupid decisions. The company trying to deceive in this case, did indeed fail (and was saved by the FDIC). Financial institutions have decided that they will just focus on tricking those that are not financially literate out of as much money as they possibly can. If you don’t educate yourself you are at great risk to be taken advantage of by financial institutions focused on finding people they can take advantage of.
Related: FDIC Study of Bank Overdraft Fees – Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders – Don’t Let the Credit Card Companies Play You for a Fool – Customer Hostility from Discover Card – Legislation to Address the Worst Credit Card Fee Abuse – Maybe
Home prices in the United States rose 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from June to July, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.5% increase in June was revised downward to a 0.1% increase. For the 12 months ending in July, U.S. prices fell 4.2%. The U.S. index is 10.5% below its April 2007 peak.
The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Read the full press release. The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices also have increased (10 and 20 city indices) for June and July.
I am still not convinced we have seen the bottom of the housing price declines nationwide. The economy is still in very fragile territory. But the data does show the declining prices have been stopped in many locations, at least for a while. If job losses continue housing prices may well resume the decline. The commercial real estate market seems to be even weaker than housing.
Related: The Value of Home Ownership – Housing Prices Post Record Declines (April 2008) – posts on economic data – real estate articles
Chart showing loan default rates for real estate, consumer and agricultural loans for 1998 to 2009 by the Curious Cat Investing Economics Blog, Creative Commons Attribution, data from the Federal Reserve.Default rates on commercial (up another 151 basis points) and residential (93 basis points) real estate continued to increase dramatically in the second quarter. Credit card default rates increased but only by 20 basis points.
Real estate default rates exploded in 2008. In the 4th quarter of 2007 residential default rates were 3.02% by the 4th quarter of 2008 they were 6.34% and in the 2nd quarter of this year they were 8.84% (582 basis points above the 4th quarter of 2007). Commercial real estate default rates were at 2.74% in the 4th quarter of 2007, 5.43% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 7.91% in the 2nd quarter of 2009 (a 517 basis point increase).
Credit card default rates were much higher than real estate default rates for the last 10 years (the 4-5% range while real estate hovered above or below 2%). Now they are over 200 and 300 basis points bellow residential and commercial default rates respectively. From 4.8% in the 3rd quarter 2008 to 5.66% in the 4th and 6.5% in the 1st quarter of 2009.
The default rate on other consumer loans and agricultural loan default rates are up but nowhere near the amounts of real estate or credit cards.
As I wrote recently bond yields in the last few months show a dramatic increase in investor confidence for corporate bonds.
Related: Loan Default Rates: 1998-2009 – The Impact of Credit Scores and Jumbo Size on Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Mortgage Rate and Federal Funds Rate Chart
Once again the data shows that the 30 year fixed mortgage rates are not directly related to federal funds rates. In June the fed funds rate increased 3 basis points, 30 year mortgage rates increased 56 basis points. Since January the fed funds rate is up 6 basis points is up while 30 year mortgage rates are up 36 basis points. Home prices have continued to fall even with the very low mortgage rates.
Related: Mortgage Rates: 6 Month and 5 Year Charts – historical comparison of 30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate – posts on financial literacy – GM and Citigroup Replaced by Cisco and Travelers in the Dow – Jumbo v. Regular Fixed Mortgage Rates: by Credit Score
For more data, see graphs of the federal funds rate versus mortgage rates for 1980-1999. Source data: federal funds rates – 30 year mortgage rates
Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike
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Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com estimates that 15.4 million homeowners — or about 1 in 5 of those with first mortgages — owe more on their homes than they are worth.
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Government and company reports show that the number of completed foreclosures nationwide slowed sharply late last year and into early this year, largely because of various moratoriums in effect during much of the first quarter.
But anecdotal reports indicate that foreclosure sales have started to climb again in the second quarter. And the pipeline is clearly getting fuller. In the first quarter, some 1.8 million homeowners nationwide fell behind on their loans by 60 to 90 days, a 15% increase from the prior quarter, according to Moody’s Economy.com. The research firm said that loan defaults rose sharply as well, to 844,000 in the first three months of this year.
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Even as defaults among subprime borrowers have trended lower this year, newly initiated foreclosures involving prime mortgage loans saw a significant increase in the first quarter, jumping 21.5% from the fourth quarter, according to a government report of loan data from national banks and federally regulated thrifts.
This is more bad news for the economy. As I have been saying the economy is still in serious trouble. Cleaning up the damage caused by living beyond our means for decades does not get cleaned up quickly. This are actually going as well as could be hoped for, I think. We need to hope the remainder of this year sees the economy stabilize and then hope 2010 brings some good news.
Related: Nearly 10% of Mortgages Delinquent or in Foreclosure – Over Half of 2008 Foreclosures From Just 35 Counties – How Much Worse Can the Mortgage Crisis Get? (March 2008) – Mortgage Rates Falling on Fed Housing Focus
Showing mortgage rates over the last 6 months. Red: 30 year fixed rate. Blue: 15 year fixed rate. Tan: 1 year adjustable rate.
Showing mortgage rates over the last 5 years. Red: 30 year fixed rate. Blue: 15 year fixed rate. Tan: 1 year adjustable rate. From Yahoo Finance, for conventional loans in Virginia.
The 6 month chart shows that mortgage rates have been declining ever so slightly. Rates on a 1 year adjustable mortgage fell from 5.5 to 4% and have stayed near 4% for all of 2009. 30 and 15 year rates (15 year rates staying about 25 basis points cheaper) have declined from 6.5%, 6 months ago to about 5% at the start of the year and have moved around slightly since. This is while the yield 10 year government treasuries have been rising (normally 30 year fixed rate mortgages track moves in the 10 year government bond). The federal reserve has been buying bonds in order to push down the yield (and stimulate mortgage financing and other borrowing).
Mortgage rates certainly could fall further but the current rates are extremely attractive and I just locked in a mortgage refinance for myself. I am getting a 20 year fixed rate mortgage; I didn’t want to extend the mortgage period by getting another 30 year fixed rate mortgage. For me, the risk of increasing rates outweigh the benefits of picking up a bit lower rate given the current economic conditions. But I can certainly understand the decision to hold out a bit longer in the hopes of getting a better rate. If I had to guess I would say rates will be lower during the next 3 months, but I am not confident enough to hold off, and so I decided to move now.
Related: Mortgage Rates Falling on Fed Housing Focus – posts on mortgages – 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates and the Fed Funds Rate – Continued Large Spreads Between Corporate and Government Bond Yields – Lowest 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates in 37 Years –
Mortgages Falling to 4% Become Bernanke Housing Focus by Brian Louis and Kathleen M. Howley
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Conventional mortgages averaged 4.61 percent in 1951, 4 percent when backed by the Veterans Administration, and 4.25 percent by the Federal Housing Administration, according to The Postwar Residential Mortgage Market, a 1961 book written by Saul Klaman and published by Princeton University Press. Rates during the 1930s were as high as 7 percent.
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Mortgages were cheaper through most of the 1940s, ranging from about 4 percent to 5.7 percent, depending on whether the lender was a life insurer, a commercial bank or a savings and loan. In that era, most loans were for 14 years and less.
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The central bank has purchased more than $300 billion of mortgage-backed securities in 2009 through the week ended April 8, helping to cut home-loan rates to 4.82 percent last week from 5.1 percent at the start of the year, according to Freddie Mac data.
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The difference between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields has narrowed to about 2.2 percent from 3.1 percent in December, which was the widest since 1986. The spread remains almost 0.7 percentage point above the average of the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Rates for 15-year mortgages are about 1.8 percent above 10-year Treasury yields, compared with an average 1.4 percent since 1999.
Excellent article with interesting historical information. I don’t believe mortgage rates will fall to 4% but differences of opinion about the future is one function of markets. Those that predict correctly can make a profit. I am thinking of refinancing a mortgage and I think I am getting close to pulling the trigger. If I was confident they would keep falling I would wait. It just seems to me the huge increase in federal debt and huge outstanding consumer debt along with very low USA saving will not keep interest rates so low. However, as I have mentioned previously, it is interesting that the Fed is directly targeting mortgage rates and possible they can push them lower. The 10 year bond yield has been increasing lately so the slight fall in mortgage rates over the last month are due to the reduced spread (that I can see decreasing – the biggest question for me is how much that spread can decrease).
Related: Fed to Start Buying Treasury Bonds Today – Federal Reserve to Buy $1.2T in Bonds, Mortgage-Backed Securities – Low Mortgage Rates Not Available to Everyone – what do mortgage terms mean?