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Investing and Economics Blog

Exurbs Hardest Hit in Recent Housing Slump

Exurbs hardest hit in recent housing slump:

While the U.S. housing downturn has depressed once-thriving real estate markets around the nation, far-flung suburbs of major cities have suffered the most abrupt market correction. Home construction in these distant exurbs has slowed and prices and sales have fallen more than those of close-in suburban neighbors since a five-year U.S. housing boom ended in the summer of 2005.

Average home prices in Loudon County, Virginia, 35 miles outside of Washington, D.C., fell roughly 11 percent in 2006, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. By contrast, Virginia’s Arlington County, which hugs the nation’s capital, saw a price decline of only about 2 percent.

And, so far there has been no “bust.” As I mentioned previously I did not, and do not, see a “bursting of the real estate bubble” overall.

Related: Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? – real estate investing articles

February 7th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Real Estate

Kodak Debuts Printers With Inexpensive Cartridges

Kodak Debuts Printers With Inexpensive Cartridges. I don’t know anything about the printers but normally companies charge exorbitant amounts for ink cartridges. They rely on the tendency of consumers to only look at the purchase price and ignore the much larger operating expenses.

In rolling out its new Easyshare All-in-One Printers, Kodak said it will “save consumers up to 50 percent on everything they print.” The new Kodak cartridges will cost about US$10 for black ink and $15 for a five-color unit.

Kodak 4-in-1 Printer with Wi-Fi

Related: Price Discrimination in the Internet Age

February 6th, 2007 by John Hunter | 1 Comment | Tags: Financial Literacy, Tips, quote

Roth IRAs a Smart bet for Younger Set

There are few investment opportunities as valuable as IRAs (tax sheltered retirement accounts) – nor many more critical to successful personal financial success (for younger or older really). Roth IRAs a smart bet for younger set by Tami Luhby.

Roth IRAs, as well as the newer Roth 401(k)s, are a smart bet for many people in their 20s and 30s, experts say. Younger workers are more likely to be in a lower tax bracket now than when they retire, making any current tax deductions less valuable, and they have enough years to save to make the tax-free withdrawals very beneficial.

The beauty of the Roth IRA and 401(k) is that there’s no tax on the capital gains in the accounts, so the longer you have to accumulate those gains, the better.

Mathematically, if the tax rate in the year of the contribution and the tax rate at the year of withdrawal are equal a Roth IRA and regular IRA provide the same value. However, in addition to earning less money in while young and therefor being in a lower tax bracket there is also the benefit from a Roth IRA of eliminating the risk of an increasing tax rate structure. Since money withdrawn from a Roth IRA is not taxable. This is a huge benefit.

So add to your IRA for last year if you have not already and add to your IRA for this year now. Also add to any employer matched 401(k) for your long term retirement savings. Few investments will have the long term impact of adding to retirement accounts early and often.

Related: Saving for Retirement

February 5th, 2007 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Financial Literacy, Retirement, Saving

Credit Card Currency Conversion Costs

Currency conversion costs from bankrate.com:

Visa and MasterCard have a standard 1-percent charge on foreign purchases; in exchange, Visa or MasterCard converts your foreign currency purchase to U.S. dollars. All Visa or MasterCard cards will carry that 1-percent charge.

However, your credit issuer or bank often charges an additional fee, usually 2 percent, which adds up to a 3-percent total charge on foreign purchases. Bankrate contacted several credit card issuers, and all refused to explain the reason for the charge.

Follow the link for a list of how much each company charges. Until the credit card companies compete on trying to serve customers well instead of trying to trick customers well such articles are extremely important. The companies have more resources to invest in tricking you than you have to try and find all of the tricks they use.

Related: Don’t Let the Credit Card Companies Play You for a Fool – Hidden Credit Card Fees – Too Much Personal Debt

February 3rd, 2007 by John Hunter | 1 Comment | Tags: Credit Cards, Financial Literacy, Tips

Nicolas Darvas

Nicolas Darvas wrote a classic investment book – How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market. In it he provides an honest and open look at his experience from his naive start to his eventual success. He lays out, in great detail, exactly what he did and how foolish some of his actions were. Then he explains how he came to find success by focusing on the price and volume action of stocks. While honing his investment strategy, in the 1950’s, he traveled the world working as a world class ballroom dancer and placed order via cable.

As with other classic investing books age does not detract from this books value. The book is very similar in form to another classic: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre (about his experience in the early 1900s).

Darvas’ method was a forerunner of the many technical analysis schemes used today. He is extensively referenced by William O’Neil (of Investor’s Business Daily fame) and other leading technicians. An extremely simplified overview of Darvas’ method: determine “boxes” (trading ranges) for a stock and buy on the breakout, to the upside, of the box. He used very close trailing stop loss orders to minimize losses. He sought to make large gains (let his winners run) and take losses quickly.

More on Darvas’ investing ideas – other leading investors

February 2nd, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Investing, Stocks, quote

Bangalore’s Boomtown Blues

Bangalore’s Boomtown Blues:

The hi-tech industry has also introduced a new phenomenon in Indian life for those who are on-the-up – the weekend break. Previously, everyone spent six days a week in the office, but the high-paid IT workers only do five.
…
Bangalore’s public infrastructure has lagged woefully behind the pace of private sector investment. Every Bangalore IT company has to have a private generator and uninterruptible power supply to cope with the daily power failures of the grid.
January 28th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics

Charity Telemarketers

Give to charity, but do so directly not on calls from telemarketers. Find some good charities. Charity navigator provides statistics and ratings of charities based on how much of the funds raised go to doing the work of the charity versus paying fundraisers, etc.. Telemarketers profit doing charities’ work:

Brigham’s group is one of many state and national charitable organizations that rely on telemarketing companies for fundraising, and those companies keep the vast majority of the money they raise.
…
Then he asked the caller how much money goes to the charity and the caller replied that all of it goes to the charity’s fund, which is technically true. The money is required to be deposited in charity’s bank account – which is how states track charity fundraising – then the charity pays the company’s share back to them. “It’s so deceptive,” he said. “People aren’t going to know that.”
…
Borochoff said that nationally, groups that hire telemarketers keep about a third of the money they solicit. The rest goes to the telemarketers, which incur the expense of compiling caller lists, hiring employees, maintaining calling facilities…

If you want to pay people to call you at home while you are eating dinner, feel free to do so, but if you want to give to charity you should give directly to the charity.

Related: What To Do When A Charity Calls – Stop Dishonest Telemarketers

January 27th, 2007 by John Hunter | 1 Comment | Tags: Financial Literacy, Tips

State of the nation? Broke

State of the nation? Broke:

If you want to correct for the $185 billion collected by Social Security as surplus cash flow in 2006 — that is, the taxes came in today to pay for benefits promised in future years — then you have to look at the on-budget deficit, which Walker calls the “operating deficit.” The on-budget deficit came to $434 billion in 2006. The on-budget deficit shrank from 2005 to 2006, just as the unified budget deficit did, but the drop was much smaller: to $434 billion in fiscal 2006 from $494 in fiscal 2005.

Both of these still understate the size of the deficit. The Bush administration has been adamant about keeping certain costs out of the budget figures. Spending on the war in Iraq, for example, has been included not in budget resolutions but in special emergency spending bills. They are “off budget” in the language of Washington. That spending, estimated by the Congressional Budget Office at $360 billion overall and $95 billion in the fiscal year that ended in October 2006, aren’t in either of these two budget figures. And Iraq funding for fiscal 2007 won’t be included in the budget the president will introduce next month, either.

January 26th, 2007 by John Hunter | 4 Comments | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy, Taxes

Stop Picking Stocks?

Stop Picking Stocks—Immediately! by Henry Blodget. I don’t agree totally with his conclusion but the article is a good read. Definitely the kind of information investors need to know. I do agree that most of the time for 90%+ of the population stock picking doesn’t turn out to be the best financial move. Three counterpoints for why it can make sense: 1) tax smart investing (for buy and hold) 2) investor education (if you pay more attention by buying some individual stocks as part of an entire investment strategy) 3) the Peter Lynch buy what you know small cap strategy (buying companies that you understand better than “wall street” – as a part of an investment portfolio). From the article:

The problem for investors is that even though stock-picking usually hurts returns, it’s extremely interesting and fun. If you are ever to wean yourself of this bad habit, therefore, the first step is to understand why it’s so rarely successful. The short answer is that the overall market provides most investment returns, not particular stock picks, so most stock pickers get credit for gains that came merely from being invested in stocks generally. Second, competition among stock pickers is so intense that it is extraordinarily difficult for any one competitor to get a consistent edge.

Related: Curious Cat Investment Bookstore including: The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham with forward by Warren Buffett and Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd

January 23rd, 2007 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Financial Literacy, Investing, Stocks

World Saving Glut – Effect of Oil Price Declines

Do lower oil prices mean the end of the saving glut?:

I am not sure whether there is a global savings glut or a global drought in non-residential investment or a bit of both. But I am quite confident that there is a savings glut in China. Savings seems to be above 50% of China’s GDP – which is nuts. And most of that isn’t household savings. There is no investment drought in China.

There is also clearly a savings glut in the oil exporting countries. Lahart – drawing on work by Higgins, Klitgaard and Lerman of the New York Fed – notes that the oil exporters saved about ½ the surge in their oil export revenue over the past few years. The result: the current account surplus of many oil exporters surged to over 30% of their GDP.
…
The oil exporters seem to have gotten noticeably less frugal over time. They were very frugal in 2004. A bit less frugal in 2005. And even less frugal in 2006.

As usual a good post by Brad Setser. The details of understanding the “savings glut” get complicated but essentially the idea is that huge savings from China, OPEC countries… create huge sums looking for investments (and fund the huge USA debts – public and private). And to some economists create the market for the debt (for example, without the savings glut their belief is there would not have been money to finance the huge questionable mortgage market over the last few year). As stated in, The Global Savings Glut:

Generally, the flow of surplus global savings to the United States has caused Americans to spend more and save less. In recent speeches, Bernanke — a member of the Federal Reserve Board and nominated as head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers — has shown how. In the 1990s, some of the savings surplus went into the hot U.S. stock market, boosting prices further. Feeling wealthier — because their stock portfolios had fattened — Americans decided they could save less and shop more.

And nearly all economist agree the “savings glut” creates the very low interest rates we have seen the last few years around the world.

Related: The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit by Ben Bernanke – Savings Glut (The self-serving explanation for America’s bad habits) by Daniel Gross – Global Savings Glut Revisited – The Savings Glut

January 20th, 2007 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics, Saving

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