Fairly frequently I am asked, by friends, for investing advice. One topic I am asked about frequently is mortgages (locking in rates, etc.). Often they are concerned about what a Federal Reserve decision to raise or lower rates will effect the 30 year fixed mortgage rate. Essentially the decision by the Fed won’t have any predictable impact (this is not the complete truth but close enough for the question being asked – this article has more, though it still just provides a cursory view of the situation).
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Our only hope: retiring later by Jim Jubak
Jim Jubak is definitely worth reading for anyone interested in investing. This column touches on the economic problem of the aging population.
That pretty much has to be part of the solution. While the United States is rich even we are not rich enough to have people work for 40 years and not work for 40 years. Retirement at 65 was set when most people died before or soon after that date. It just is not realistic to think we can live at the standards of living we expect and only work from 25-65.
If people want to cut the standard of living during the 80 years they live that would be one tradeoff they could make. I don’t believe his contention that savings is not a reasonable significant part of the solution (if that is what he means by “The whole world is getting old pretty much all at once, so saving more and investing at higher returns won’t do the trick.”
- The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey by Barry P. Bosworth, Ralph C. Bryant and Gary Burtless. The Brookings Institution, July 2004
- Aging population makes this deficit scarier, Sue Kirchhoff, USA Today.
The issue of how to deal with the economic consequences of aging population is an important issue to consider today. It is something I need to continue to study. But we also need to be taking action now on things like increasing the full retirement age for Social Security, increasing the saving rate, decreasing the current yearly federal deficit (and private pension liabilities), providing ways for those in their 60’s and 70’s to participate in the economy that work well (probably part time, more flexible work arrangements, etc.).
China to Raise Tariffs On Clothing Exports, from the Washington Post:
If the Chinese government must reduce the amount of the world textile trade that their country is taking, or face retaliation from other countries, this is a very smart move. Essentially China gets to tax the United States, Europe, etc. and be thanked for doing so by the governments of those countries. Such is the odd nature of international trade these days.
The Chinese government is going to tax textiles being exported by China. Therefore when an American picks up a shirt at the mall it will include a new tax to the Chinese government and this is seen as a good thing by the American government. An alternative would be for the American government to tax imports. Then the tax paid by the American consumer would go to the United States government instead. It seems odd that the American government thinks it is better to pay a tax to the Chinese government than to the American government but that seems to be what their policy and statements support.
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The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway is being held this weekend in Omaha (cnn article). Recently the 2004 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report (by Warren Buffett) was published. The report is excellent reading for anyone interested in investing. Some quotes from the annual report:
- In one respect, 2004 was a remarkable year for the stock market, a fact buried in the maze of numbers on page 2. If you examine the 35 years since the 1960s ended, you will find that an investor’s return, including dividends, from owning the S&P has averaged 11.2% annually (well above what we expect future returns to be – [bold added]). But if you look for years with returns anywhere close to that 11.2% – say, between 8% and 14% – you will find only one before 2004. – page 3
I decided to look at selecting a portfolio of stocks I would be comfortable putting into an IRA for 10 years. My main criteria was companies with a history of large positive cash flow (that seemed likely to continue that trend).
The 10 stocks I came up with are (closing price on 22 April 2005 – % of portfolio invested):
- Templeton Dragon Fund (TDF – 16.40 – 16%) – a closed end mutual fund investing in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore… This one doesn’t fit the criteria but does a great job of filling out the portfolio in my opinion.
- Dell (DELL – 36.43 – 12%)
- Toyota (TM – 72.42 – 12%)
- Google (GOOG – 215.81 – 12%)
- Pfizer (PFE – 27.22 – 8%)
- Amazon (AMZN – 33.04 – 8%) They are only just starting to generate cash but I like their prospects.
- Intel (INTC – 23.24 – 8%)
- Petro China (PTR – 61.68 – 8%) Investing in PTR is based on the potential for China, the prospects for oil over the next 10-20 years and Warren Buffet’s ownership of the stock.
- Cisco (CSCO – 17.43 – 8%)
- First Data (FDC – 37.48 – 8%)
re: Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? – Dan Gilmor blog post
I doubt we are at the end of the bubble. However, financial bubbles are very difficult to time. My guess is the bubble will continue for over a year for most, if not all locations in the USA. And unless the bubble continues and prices reach levels much higher than they are now, the end of the bubble will not be dramatic decline of prices (say an drop in prices of over 25%) in most locations.
Manhattan (with historically very volatile prices) and certain other locations will likely have dramatic declines. But overall the real estate market will slow down (fewer sales) greatly and may experience say a 5 year period where prices decline slightly (or increase slightly). Real Estate normally does not behave the same way the stock market does when a bubble breaks, but we will see what actually happens.
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