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Investing and Economics Blog

Let the Good Times Roll (using Credit)

Continuation of: USA Manufacturing is Healthy

The real problem with the USA economy is that a country cannot live beyond its means forever. Those living in USA have consumed far more than they have produced for decades. That is not sustainable. The living beyond our means is mainly due to massively increased consumption, not shrinking output (in manufacturing or service). One, of many examples, of the increased consumption is average square footage of single-family homes in the USA: 1950 – 983; 1970 – 1,500; 1990 – 2,080; 2004 – 2,349.

In case it isn’t totally obvious to you. You don’t fix this problem by encouraging more spending and borrowing: either by the government or by consumers. The long term problem for the USA economy is that people have consuming more than they have been producing. Personally, as this continues you reach a point where getting another credit card does not work. The same holds true for the collective health of a country. A country cannot solve the problem of having bills come due from decades of living beyond its means by charging more so that they can continue to live beyond their means.

Where the USA is in the continuum, is hard for me to judge. For the sack of illustration, lets say a consumer can get to 10 cards before they finally fail. If the consumer reaches the limit on 2 credit cards they have the choice to continue to the party by getting another credit card. Or they have the choice of addressing the situation they have gotten themselves into. If they decide to become responsible they have a challenge but one they can endure with some hardships.

If they press on to 5 credit cards and then max them out they come to the same decision. Dig themselves deeper in debt to avoid the problem today or live up their past behavior and become responsible. The work they have ahead of themselves is much more challenging than if they had started working on the problem when they only had 2 cards.

If they press on to 9 cards and now have the decision again. The effort to find a solution may be almost impossible. Borrow more to pay for past mistakes while maintaining some expenditures may be possible (but they will have to live on less than they earn). By the time you are this far down the failed path you have so much going to pay for your past bills you can’t spend even close to what you currently earn on current expenses. Letting yourself get to this point is very bad. And most likely as a person you will go bankrupt.
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December 4th, 2008 by John Hunter | 6 Comments | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy, quote

USA Manufacturing Output Continues to Increase (over the long term)

When looking at the long term data, USA manufacturing output continues to increase. For decades people have been repeating the claim that the manufacturing base is eroding. It has not been true. I realize the economy is on weak ground today, I am not talking about that, I am looking at the long term trends.

The USA manufactures more than anyone else – by far. The percentage of total global manufacturing is the same today it was two decades ago (and further back as well). For decades people have been saying the USA has lost the manufacturing base – it just is not true. No matter how many times they say it does not make it true. It is true since 2000 the USA increase in manufacturing output (note not a decrease) has not kept pace with global grown in manufacturing output (global output in that period is up 47% and the USA is up 19% – Japan is down 10% for that period).

I would guess 20 years from today the USA will have a lower percentage of worldwide manufacturing. But I don’t see any reason believe the USA will see a decline in total manufacturing output. I just think the rest of the world is likely to grow manufacturing output more rapidly.

Looking at a year or even 2 or 3 years of manufacturing output data leaves a great deal of room to see trends where really just random variation exists. Even for longer periods trends are hard to project into the future.

Conventional wisdom is correct about China growing manufacturing output tremendously. China has grown from 4% of the output of the largest manufacturing companies in 1990 to manufacturing 16% of the total output in China today. That 12% had to come from other’s shares. And given all you hear from the general press, financial press, politicians, commentators… you would think the USA must have much less than China today, so may 10% and maybe they had 20% in 1990. When actually in 1990 the USA had 28% and in 2007 they had 27%.

Manufacturing jobs are not moving oversees. Manufacturing jobs are decreasing everywhere.
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December 2nd, 2008 by John Hunter | 3 Comments | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy, Investing, Popular, Saving, quote

Dazzling Diversification

Diversification overrated? Not a chance by Jason Zweig

A diversified portfolio always has, and always will, underperform the hottest investment of the moment.

For anyone with a sustainable ability to identify the hottest investment of the moment, diversification is a mistake. But if you really believe you’ve got that ability, you’re not just mistaken. You need to be hauled off in a straitjacket to the Institute for the Treatment of Investment Insanity.

Exactly right. As we posted previously Warren Buffett’s diversification thoughts are similar

If you are a professional and have confidence, then I would advocate lots of concentration. For everyone else, if it’s not your game, participate in total diversification. The economy will do fine over time. Make sure you don’t buy at the wrong price or the wrong time. That’s what most people should do, buy a cheap index fund and slowly dollar cost average into it.

You have to remember when Warren Buffett says “professional and have confidence” he doesn’t really mean just what those words say. He mean if you are Charlie Munger, George Soros, Jimmy Rodgers and maybe 10 other people alive today (maybe I am too restrictive, maybe he would include 50 more people alive today, but I doubt it).

Related: Dilbert on Investing – investment risks – Curious Cat Investing and Economics Search Engine

December 1st, 2008 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Financial Literacy, Investing, Personal finance, Real Estate, Stocks, Tips

S&P 500 Dividend Yield Tops Bond Yield: First Time Since 1958

S&P 500 Payout Tops Bond Yield, a First Since 1958 (site broke the link, so I removed it):

U.S. stocks’ dividend yields were lower than the yield on 10-year Treasury notes for half a century. Not any more. Dividends paid by Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies in the past 12 months amounted to 3.51 percent of the benchmark’s closing value yesterday. In early trading today, the 10-year yield fell as low as 3.42 percent.
…
Treasuries routinely had higher yields than stocks before 1958, according to Bernstein. When this relationship came to an end, yields were near their current levels. The S&P 500 dividend yield fell 0.58 percentage point, to 3.24 percent, in the third quarter of 1958. The 10-year yield rose about the same amount, 0.6 point, to 3.80 percent.

Two explanations later emerged for the reversal, he wrote. One held that the economy’s recovery from the 1957-58 recession showed “investors could finally put to rest the widely held expectation of an imminent return to the Great Depression.” The second was the increasing popularity of investing in growth stocks, or shares of companies whose sales and earnings rose at a relatively fast pace. Because of their expansion, the companies often paid below-average dividends.

Reversal of Fortunes Between Stocks and Bonds

Even more telling was the relative movements in stock and bond yields over the years. Bernstein calculates that from 1954 to 1969 — while inflation was relatively low and stable — bond and stock yields moved mostly in tandem. But from 1970 to 1999 — the Great Inflation — bond and stock yields moved inversely. From 2000 on, bond and stock yields have been back in sync.

Arnott takes it a step further. “In a world of deleveraging, both for the financial services arena and for the economy at large, growth is less certain,” he says. “And with the economy eroding sharply, so is inflation. If stocks don’t deliver nominal growth in dividends and earnings, then their yield ‘must’ exceed the Treasury yield, in order to give us any sort of risk premium.”

Related: Corporate and Government Bond Rates Graph – Highest Possible Returns – posts on interest rates – investing strategy

November 21st, 2008 by John Hunter | 4 Comments | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy, Investing, Stocks, quote

Financial Markets with Robert Shiller

Financial Markets with Professor Robert Shiller (spring 2008) is a fantastic resource from Open Yale courses: 26 webcast (also available as mp3) lectures on topics including: The Universal Principle of Risk Management, Stocks, Real Estate Finance and Its Vulnerability to Crisis, Stock Index, Oil and Other Futures Markets and Learning from and Responding to Financial Crisis (Guest Lecture by Lawrence Summers).

Robert Shiller created the repeat-sales home price index with Karl Case that is known as the Case-Shiller home price index.

Related: Berkeley and MIT courses online – Open Access Education Materials – Curious Cat Science and Engineering Blog open access posts – Paul Krugman Speaks at Google

November 19th, 2008 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy, Investing, Real Estate, Stocks, quote

Personal Finance Basics: Dollar Cost Averaging

With the recent turmoil in the financial market this is a good time to look at Dollar cost averaging. The strategy is one that helps you actually benefit from market volatility simply.

You actually are better off with wild swings in stock prices, when you dollar cost average, than if they just went up .8% every single month (if both ended with stocks at the same price 20 years later). Really the wilder the better (the limit is essentially the limit at which the economy was harmed by the wild swings and people decided they didn’t want to take risk and make investments.

Here are two examples, if you invest $1,000 in a mutual fund and the price goes up every year (for this example the prices I used over 20 years: 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 33, 36,39) you would end up with $40,800 and you would have invested $20,000. The mutual fund went from $10 a share to $39 over that period (which is a 7% return compounded annually for the share price). If you have the same final value but instead of the price going up every year the price was volatile (for example: 10, 11, 7, 12, 16, 18, 20, 13, 10, 16, 20, 15, 24,29, 36, 27, 24, 34, 39) you end up with more most often (in this example: $45,900).

You could actually end up with less if the price shot up well above the final price very early on and then stayed there and then dropped in the last few years. As you get close to retirement (10 years to start paying close attention) you need to adopt a strategy that is very focused on reducing risk of investment declines for your entire portfolio.

The reason you end up with more money is that when the price is lower you buy more shares. Dollar cost averaging does not guaranty a good return. If the investment does poorly over the entire period you will still suffer. But if the investment does well over the long term the added volatility will add to your return. By buying a consistent amount each year (or month…) you will buy more share when prices are low, you will buy fewer shares when prices are high and the effect will be to add to your total return.

Now if you could time the market and sell all your shares when prices peaked and buy again when prices were low you could have fantastic returns. The problem is essentially no-one has been able to do so over the long term. Trying to time the market fails over and over for huge numbers of investors. Dollar cost averaging is simple and boring but effective as long as you chose a good long term investment vehicle.

Investing to your IRA every year is one great way to take advantage of dollar cost averaging. Adding to your 401(k) retirement plan at work is another (and normally this will automatically dollar cost average for you).

Related: Does a Declining Stock Market Worry You? – Save Some of Each Raise – Starting Retirement Account Allocations for Someone Under 40 – Save an Emergency Fund

November 17th, 2008 by John Hunter | Leave a Comment | Tags: Financial Literacy, Investing, Personal finance, Stocks, Tips, quote

Personal Finance Basics: Long-term Care Insurance

Long term care insurance is an important part of a personal financial portfolio. It provides insurance for for expenses beyond medical and nursing care for chronic illnesses (assisted living expenses). So while looking at your personal finance insurance needs (health insurance, disability insurance, automobile insurance, homeowners [or rental] insurance [with personal liability insurance - or separate personal liability insurance] and life insurance don’t forget to consider long term care insurance.

Can You Afford Long-Term-Care Insurance?

Long-term care is likely to be most Americans’ greatest expense of all in retirement. A private room in a nursing home costs $76,460 annually on average, or $209 a day, and Medicare typically won’t cover it.
…
AARP estimates that a 65-year-old in good health can expect to pay between $2,000 and $3,000 a year for a policy that covers nursing-home and home care.

“About 70 percent of individuals over age 65 will require at least some type of long-term care services during their lifetime. Over 40 percent will need care in a nursing home for some period of time.” – National Clearinghouse for Long-Term Care Information

Advice on buying long term care insurance from AARP, the Department of Health and Human Services and Consumer Reports.
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October 27th, 2008 by John Hunter | 3 Comments | Tags: Financial Literacy, Personal finance, Retirement

Will Americans Actually Save and Worsen the Recession?

Americans need to save much more money. This is true for people’s personal financial health. And it is true for the long term health of the economy. Of course the credit card immediate gratification culture doesn’t put much weight on those factors. And if Americans actually do reduce their consumption to save more that will harm the economy in the short term. But since those reading this are people (the economy can’t read) the smart thing for most readers is to save more to create a stronger financial future for themselves.

Turmoil May Make Americans Savers, Worsening ‘Nasty’ Recession

U.S. retail sales fell in September for the third straight month, the longest slump since the government began keeping records in 1992.
…
From 1960 until 1990, households socked away an average of about 9 percent of their after-tax income, Commerce Department figures show. But Americans got out of the saving habit starting in the 1990s
…
“Consumers are starting to realize that they’ve been living in a fantasy world,” says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who is now senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington. “They will have to begin salting away money for retirement, their children’s education and other reasons.”

Americans have a way to go to catch up with their counterparts in other countries. The 0.4 percent of disposable income that U.S. households saved last year compares with 10.9 percent for Germany and 3.1 percent for Japan

Related: Americans are Drowning in Debt – Too Much Stuff – Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap

October 21st, 2008 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Economics, Financial Literacy, Investing, Personal finance, Saving

MicroFinance Currency Risk

I have been curious how Kiva deals with currency risk. Kiva is a great resource for providing micro-lending and the opportunity to engage in choosing who you will lend to. But my transactions are all in US$ and the loans in the field are in the local currency. This creates an issue of what happens when currency values fluctuate. I asked a question on the Kiva LinkedIn group (an excerpt is shown here):

A lender takes out a loan of $100 with 10 months to repay. If the loan is in the local currency, what if the value of that currency during the 10 months declines by 20%? Then the bank has received all their money back but they owe Kiva $100 but they only have $80 worth of the local currency (again ignore that the payments are made monthly – since it doesn’t effect the issue at hand – currency rates). Hows does Kiva deal with this currency risk? Do the local partner banks take the risk…?

I was directed to a great slideshow showing Kiva’s lending policies. It turns out Kiva does have the local banks take the currency risk. So they have to pay back $100, if the local currency value is now $80, they would have a loss, of course the local currency value could also have risen, then the local bank has a gain.

They have a chart showing the cost of capital to local Kiva lenders at 0-1% plus currency exchange risk (which they say some banks choose to hedge and others just take the risk), which is about the lowest cost of capital around. Kiva charges no interest on the loans to the local banks. The costs come from the requirements (the cost of adding a profile – the time of staff of the bank to add the information…) of using the Kiva website.

Curious Cat Kiva connections: Curious Cats Kiva lending team – Curious Cat Kivans - Funding Entrepreneurs in Nicaragua, Ghana, Viet Nam, Togo and Tanzania – Kiva Fellows Blog: Nepalese Entrepreneur Success – Kiva related blog posts

October 18th, 2008 by John Hunter | 6 Comments | Tags: Cool, Economics, Financial Literacy

Buy American Stocks. Buffett Is.

Buy American. I Am. by Warren Buffett:

The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
…
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense.
…
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up.
…
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree.

Yet more great advice from Warren Buffett. I must admit I think buying stocks from the USA and elsewhere is wise, but there isn’t any reason to listen to me instead of him.

Related: Financial Markets Continue Panicky Behavior – Great Advice from Warren Buffett – Stock Market Decline – Warren Buffett’s 2004 Annual Report – Does a Declining Stock Market Worry You?

October 17th, 2008 by John Hunter | 2 Comments | Tags: Financial Literacy, Investing, Stocks, Tips, quote

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