How to thrive when this bear dies by Jim Jubak

Jim Jubak is one of my favorite investing writers. He can of course be wrong but he provides worthwhile insight, backed with research, and specific suggestions. I am also positive on the outlook for stocks (though what the next year or so hold I am less certain) and on emerging markets.

Related: Why Investing is Safer Overseas – Rodgers on the US and Chinese Economies – Beating the Market – The Growing Size of non-USA Economies – Warren Buffett’s 2004Annual Report

With the recent turmoil in the financial market this is a good time to look at Dollar cost averaging. The strategy is one that helps you actually benefit from market volatility simply.

You actually are better off with wild swings in stock prices, when you dollar cost average, than if they just went up .8% every single month (if both ended with stocks at the same price 20 years later). Really the wilder the better (the limit is essentially the limit at which the economy was harmed by the wild swings and people decided they didn’t want to take risk and make investments.

Here are two examples, if you invest $1,000 in a mutual fund and the price goes up every year (for this example the prices I used over 20 years: 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 33, 36,39) you would end up with $40,800 and you would have invested $20,000. The mutual fund went from $10 a share to $39 over that period (which is a 7% return compounded annually for the share price). If you have the same final value but instead of the price going up every year the price was volatile (for example: 10, 11, 7, 12, 16, 18, 20, 13, 10, 16, 20, 15, 24,29, 36, 27, 24, 34, 39) you end up with more most often (in this example: $45,900).

You could actually end up with less if the price shot up well above the final price very early on and then stayed there and then dropped in the last few years. As you get close to retirement (10 years to start paying close attention) you need to adopt a strategy that is very focused on reducing risk of investment declines for your entire portfolio.

The reason you end up with more money is that when the price is lower you buy more shares. Dollar cost averaging does not guaranty a good return. If the investment does poorly over the entire period you will still suffer. But if the investment does well over the long term the added volatility will add to your return. By buying a consistent amount each year (or month…) you will buy more share when prices are low, you will buy fewer shares when prices are high and the effect will be to add to your total return.

Now if you could time the market and sell all your shares when prices peaked and buy again when prices were low you could have fantastic returns. The problem is essentially no-one has been able to do so over the long term. Trying to time the market fails over and over for huge numbers of investors. Dollar cost averaging is simple and boring but effective as long as you chose a good long term investment vehicle.

Investing to your IRA every year is one great way to take advantage of dollar cost averaging. Adding to your 401(k) retirement plan at work is another (and normally this will automatically dollar cost average for you).

Related: Does a Declining Stock Market Worry You? – Save Some of Each Raise – Starting Retirement Account Allocations for Someone Under 40 – Save an Emergency Fund

Long term care insurance is an important part of a personal financial portfolio. It provides insurance for for expenses beyond medical and nursing care for chronic illnesses (assisted living expenses). So while looking at your personal finance insurance needs (health insurance, disability insurance, automobile insurance, homeowners [or rental] insurance [with personal liability insurance - or separate personal liability insurance] and life insurance don’t forget to consider long term care insurance.

Can You Afford Long-Term-Care Insurance?

“About 70 percent of individuals over age 65 will require at least some type of long-term care services during their lifetime. Over 40 percent will need care in a nursing home for some period of time.” – National Clearinghouse for Long-Term Care Information

Advice on buying long term care insurance from AARP, the Department of Health and Human Services and Consumer Reports.
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Americans need to save much more money. This is true for people’s personal financial health. And it is true for the long term health of the economy. Of course the credit card immediate gratification culture doesn’t put much weight on those factors. And if Americans actually do reduce their consumption to save more that will harm the economy in the short term. But since those reading this are people (the economy can’t read) the smart thing for most readers is to save more to create a stronger financial future for themselves.

Turmoil May Make Americans Savers, Worsening ‘Nasty’ Recession

Related: Americans are Drowning in Debt – Too Much Stuff – Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap

Dream More, Work Less:

I like this post. For me personal finance is a subset of life. Like health and education, personal finance, can hamper or provide options to your life. You need to keep track of your finances and manage them but that is in order to provide yourself options to live the life you want. Don’t forget to decide what you want out of life. Then see how you can help make that happen based on finances or what steps you need to take to live your dreams in the future.

comic: Wanna play work? – also see: Joy in Work

Related: Medieval Peasants had More Vacation Time – Signs You Have a Great Job … or Not – How to Protect Your Financial Health – Credit Card Tips – Provide a Helping Hand – 1,000 True Fans

401(k)s are a great way to save. Yes, today those that have been saving money have the disappointment of bad recent results. But that is a minor factor compared to the major problem: Americans not saving what they need to for retirement in 401(k)s, IRAs, even just emergency funds… Do not use the scary financial market performance recently as an excuse to avoid retirement savings (if you have actually been doing well).

The importance of saving enough for retirement is actually increased by the recent results. You might have to re-evaluate your expectations and see whether you have been saving enough. I am actually considering increasing my contributions, mainly to take advantage of lower prices. But another benefit of doing so would be to add more to retirement savings, given me more safety in case long term results are not what I was hoping for.

Now there can be some 401(k) plans that are less ideal. Limited investing options can make them less valuable. Those limited options could include the lack of good diverse choices, index funds, international, money market, real estate, short term bond funds… My real estate fund is down about 2% in the last year (unlike what some might think based on the media coverage of declining housing prices). And poor investing options could include diverse but not good options (options with high expenses… [ the article, see blow, mentions some with a 2% expense rate - that is horrible]).

But those poor implementations of 401(K)s are not equivalent to making 401(k)s un-viable for saving. It might reduce the value of 401(k)s to some people (those will less good 401(k) plans). Or it might even make it so for people with bad 401(k) options that they should not save using it (or that they limit the amount in their 401k). I don’t know of such poor options, but it is theoretically possible.

The tax deferral is a huge benefit. That benefit will only increase as tax rates rise (given the huge debt we have built up it is logical to believe taxes will go up to pay off spending today with the tax increases passed to the future to pay for our current spending).

And if you get matching of 410(k) contributions that can often more than make up for other less than ideal aspects of a particular 401(k) option.

Also once you leave a job you can roll the 401(k) assets into an IRA and invest in a huge variety of assets. So even if the 401k options are not great, it is normally wise to add to them and then just roll them into an IRA when you leave. If the plan is bad, also you can use an IRA for your first $5,000 in annual retirement savings and then add additional amounts in the 401k (if they are matching funds normally adding enough to get the matching is best).

401(k)s, 403(b), IRAs… are still great tools for saving. The performance of financial markets recently have been poor. Accepting periods of poor performance is hard psychologically. But retirement accounts are still a excellent tool for saving for retirement. Using them correctly is important: allocating resources correctly, moving into safer asset allocations as one approaches and reaches retirement…
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The panic driven declines in worldwide stock markets have been remarkable. Deciding whether to join the panic and sell, or hold firm, or buy in now is very difficult. In general trying to time the stock market is difficult and not something many have succeeded trying to do. When I look at the long term values of individual stocks I see plenty that seem like bargains to me. Of course I have no idea if they will be greater bargains in a week, a month or a year. And I could easily be wrong that they are bargains at all.

Still I have bought some Google (GOOG), Templeton Dragon Fund (TDF), Toyota (TM) and ATP Oil (ATPG). The first three I am happy to buy and hold for 10 years (and actually there is a greater than 90% chance I will hold the shares I have now own 10 years from now). The fourth one is fairly speculative, we will see how it goes. I did sell one stock, not because I think it is overvalued but because I liked what I could buy if I sold it (the price had held up well so relatively I could trade it for more shares of what I wanted today than I could have a month or 6 months… ago) – Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL). Often those stocks that hold up well in declines are very strong and do very well once the market corrects, so this could well turn out to be a mistake.

Trying to time when things have hit bottom is very difficult. So I am not trying to do that. I did not invest all my cash now, and will be adding to my positions over the next year (most likely). I have been fortunately that I have been saving up cash and not buying into the market much (I wasn’t smart enough to sell though, and my retirement accounts were still going into stock funds primarily). I am guessing the declining prospects (due to the worsening economy) on the stocks I am buying have been more than offset by the declining stock prices. Only time will tell whether that was a profitable move or not.

Related: Does a Declining Stock Market Worry You? – 12 Stocks for 10 Years June 2008 Update – Beating the Market – Another Great Quarter for Amazon

I would say the chance of a depression in the next 5 years is very unlikely. The last 2 years have been full of bad economic news but a depression is still not likely, in my opinion. However, much of the public, seems to think it is likely – Poll: 60% say depression ‘likely’

I must say I don’t think those polled don’t really hold their belief very firmly. If you actually see a depression as likely you have to take drastic steps with your finances. I really doubt many of them are and instead think they are casually saying they think it is likely without really thinking about what that would mean.

I don’t see it as likely and don’t see any need to change significantly what made good personal financial sense 2 years ago. The biggest change I see (over the last couple of months) is the importance of taking smart person finance actions has increased dramatically. The smart moves are pretty much the same but the risks to failing to create an emergency fund, abusing your credit card, losing a job… have increased dramatically.

Related: Uncertain Economic Times – Personal Finance Basics: Health Insurance – Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap

The FDIC limit has been raised to $250,000 which is a good thing. The increased limit is only a temporary measure (through Dec 31, 2009) but hopefully it will be extended before it expires. I don’t see anything magical about $250,000 but something like $200,000 (or more) seems reasonable to me. The coverage level was increased to $100,000 in 1980.

What does federal deposit insurance cover?
FDIC insurance covers funds in deposit accounts, including checking and savings accounts, money market deposit accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). FDIC insurance does not, however, cover other financial products and services that insured banks may offer, such as stocks, bonds, mutual fund shares, life insurance policies, annuities or municipal securities.

Joint accounts are covered for $250,000 per co-owner. The limit is per person, per institution, so all your accounts at one institution are added together. If you have $200,000 in CDs and $100,000 in savings you would have $50,000 that is not covered.

FDIC is an excellent example of good government in action. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was created in 1933 and serves to stabilize banking by eliminating the need to get ahead of any panic about whether the bank you have funds in is in trouble (which then leads to people creating a run on the bank…)

From an FDIC September 25 2008 news release: the current FDIC balance is $45 billion (that is after a decrease of $7.6 billion in the second quarter). The FDIC is 100% paid for by fees on banks. The FDIC can raise the fees charged banks if the insurance fund needs to get increased funds.
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Since the S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city home price index peaked in June 2006 it has fallen 19.5%. In the year ending July 2008 the decline was 16.3%. That is a record drop. In that year Las Vegas declined 29.9%, Phoenix 29.3% and Miami 28.2%. For the largest cities: New York City declined 7.4%, Los Angeles 26.2%, Chicago 10% and Dallas 2.5% (the second lowest decline – Charlotte declined 1.8%); Houston and Philadelphia, the 4th and 5th largest cities are not included in the 20 city index.

Only one city shows a decline in housing values since January, 2000: Detroit is down nearly 7%. Washington is up 95% since January, 2000 (even with a 15.8% decline in the last year), Los Angels and New York are tied for second at 93% increases. The 20 city index is up 66% from January 2000 to July 2008.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices for single family homes.

Source: Record Home Price Declines (pdf)

Related: Housing Prices Post Record Declines – Home Price Declines Exceeding 10% Seen for 20% of Housing Markets – Fourteen Fold Increase in 31 Years – The Ever Expanding House – Coming Collapse in Housing?