Questions You Should Ask About Your Investments from the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC). They offer questions relating to: general investments, mutual funds, investment advisers, performance of your investments. Questions such as:
What are the total fees to purchase, maintain, and sell this investment? Are there ways that I can reduce or avoid some of the fees that I’ll pay, such as purchasing the investment directly? After all the fees are paid, how much does this investment have to increase in value before I break even?
How liquid is this investment? How easy would it be to sell if I needed my money right away?
Pretty basic stuff but it provides some questions that you should be able to answer. If you can’t then continue on your path to increase your financial literacy. We hope I site can help with that. In addition we link (on the left) to some good sites including fool.com and Marketplace that are useful in educating yourself.
Britain becomes ‘never, never land’ as personal debt runs out of control
Britain seems to be taking after the USA. Debt is not necessarily bad for the economy or individual. Too much debt is. When it becomes “too much” is one of the issues we will discuss, and link to articles discussing, in this blog.
People will benefit from understanding how debt effects their future economic life. To do this they need to gain financial literacy. To help people gain financial literacy is one of the aims of this blog. We believe that gaining financial literacy will lead people to make better economic decisions. Such as not taking on too much debt.
Originally posted on our Management Blog.
Manufacturing Productivity and the Shifting US, China, and Global Job Scenes-1990 to 2005 (working paper – July 2005) by William Ward, Clemson University:
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I find that 100% of the (3.0 million) manufacturing jobs lost since 2000 were lost to manufacturing productivity growth and that 100% of the (1.8 million) jobs that should have been added back by GDP growth in the US after 2000 were shifted to other sectors of the US economy than manufacturing.
In this paper he is examines the factors leading to a reduction in manufacturing job worldwide. He concludes that job losses are mainly due to increased manufacturing productivity (worldwide, manufacturing productivity is increasing and jobs are decreasing – including China). Read more
Our Financial Failings by Neil Irwin, Washington Post:
It has about $3,800 in the bank. No one has a retirement account, and the neighbors who do only have about $35,000 in theirs. Mutual funds? Stocks? Bonds? Nope. The house is worth $160,000, but the family owes $95,000 on it to the bank. The breadwinners make more than $43,000 a year but can’t manage to pay off a $2,200 credit card balance.
That is the portrait of the median American household as painted by the Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances.
Saving for retirement is not complicated, it is just a matter of priorities. Most people care more about a Starbucks coffee each day (or season tickets, or new shoes, or a new car every couple of years or…) today than saving money for retirement. In a capitalist society we believe in letting people make their economic choices. The choices most of us make (in the USA) lead to the results above.
Read more
CNNMoney is not exactly intellectual discussion of economic and investing issues but normally it offers fairly good material for the large number of people. Especially those who really don’t want to read Warren Buffett or Brad Setser. Still the following quote in their article, Cashing in on hot real estate is just wrong:
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San Diego-based certified financial planners Christopher Van Slyke and Terry Green recommend an unconventional plan: taking out a new $500,000 ARM.
Handel and Laport can pay off their existing mortgage before the rate rises and retire their other debts. They can put the remaining $200,000 into stock and bond funds.
To be sure, borrowing against a house to put the proceeds into the market rarely makes sense. But in Handel and Laport’s case it does because so much of their net worth is tied up in their home, and the super-hot L.A. real estate market looks primed for a fall…
They can convert equity that might melt away.
They can what? In no way does increasing their leverage convert equity that might melt away. Any amount of “melting away” will still happen after this increase in leverage – no conversion has happened. They still have a full ownership interest in the real estate. If the value of their house fell $300,000 before or after this supposed “conversion” they would “lose” (on paper) the same amount: $300,000. The investment risk for the house has not changed (for the whole portfolio you could argue it has but that gets complicated and subject to debate).
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In April of last year I posted on 10 stocks for 10 years. At that time I also setup an fund through Marketocracy, which allows for 3rd party tracking of investing results. See the results so far on Marketocracy’s site. Thusfar the portfolio is up 20%, in under 9 months (versus 13% for the S&P 500 for the same period of time.
The 10 stocks didn’t meet the diversification requirements for marketocracy, at the time, so I modified the portion of the portfolio for each stock when I setup the fund. The portfolio as of Jan 2006 (17% cash):
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Stock | % of fund | Current Return |
| Google – GOOG | 16 | 114% | |
| Templeton Dragon Fund – TDF | 12 | 25% | |
| Toyota – TM | 10 | 48% | |
| Dell – DELL | 8 | -13% | |
| Petro China – PTR | 5 | 36% | |
| Cisco – CSCO | 5 | 8% | |
| Amazon – AMZN | 4 | 39% | |
| Pfizer – PFE | 4 | -9% | |
| First Data – FDC | 4 | 11% | |
| Yahoo – YHOO | 4 | 25% | |
| Intel – INTC | 3 | 13% | |
| BP – BP | 3 | 5% | |
| Walmart – WMT | 3 | -5% | |
| Templeton Emerging Markets Fund – EMF | 2 | 43% | |
| Microsoft | 1 | 6% |
Obviously Google is doing quite well, up 114%. The second largest gain is for Toyota, which is up 48%, I’m sure a surprising result to many.
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Fairly frequently I am asked, by friends, for investing advice. One topic I am asked about frequently is mortgages (locking in rates, etc.). Often they are concerned about what a Federal Reserve decision to raise or lower rates will effect the 30 year fixed mortgage rate. Essentially the decision by the Fed won’t have any predictable impact (this is not the complete truth but close enough for the question being asked – this article has more, though it still just provides a cursory view of the situation).
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China to Raise Tariffs On Clothing Exports, from the Washington Post:
If the Chinese government must reduce the amount of the world textile trade that their country is taking, or face retaliation from other countries, this is a very smart move. Essentially China gets to tax the United States, Europe, etc. and be thanked for doing so by the governments of those countries. Such is the odd nature of international trade these days.
The Chinese government is going to tax textiles being exported by China. Therefore when an American picks up a shirt at the mall it will include a new tax to the Chinese government and this is seen as a good thing by the American government. An alternative would be for the American government to tax imports. Then the tax paid by the American consumer would go to the United States government instead. It seems odd that the American government thinks it is better to pay a tax to the Chinese government than to the American government but that seems to be what their policy and statements support.
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I decided to look at selecting a portfolio of stocks I would be comfortable putting into an IRA for 10 years. My main criteria was companies with a history of large positive cash flow (that seemed likely to continue that trend).
The 10 stocks I came up with are (closing price on 22 April 2005 – % of portfolio invested):
- Templeton Dragon Fund (TDF – 16.40 – 16%) – a closed end mutual fund investing in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore… This one doesn’t fit the criteria but does a great job of filling out the portfolio in my opinion.
- Dell (DELL – 36.43 – 12%)
- Toyota (TM – 72.42 – 12%)
- Google (GOOG – 215.81 – 12%)
- Pfizer (PFE – 27.22 – 8%)
- Amazon (AMZN – 33.04 – 8%) They are only just starting to generate cash but I like their prospects.
- Intel (INTC – 23.24 – 8%)
- Petro China (PTR – 61.68 – 8%) Investing in PTR is based on the potential for China, the prospects for oil over the next 10-20 years and Warren Buffet’s ownership of the stock.
- Cisco (CSCO – 17.43 – 8%)
- First Data (FDC – 37.48 – 8%)
re: Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? – Dan Gilmor blog post
I doubt we are at the end of the bubble. However, financial bubbles are very difficult to time. My guess is the bubble will continue for over a year for most, if not all locations in the USA. And unless the bubble continues and prices reach levels much higher than they are now, the end of the bubble will not be dramatic decline of prices (say an drop in prices of over 25%) in most locations.
Manhattan (with historically very volatile prices) and certain other locations will likely have dramatic declines. But overall the real estate market will slow down (fewer sales) greatly and may experience say a 5 year period where prices decline slightly (or increase slightly). Real Estate normally does not behave the same way the stock market does when a bubble breaks, but we will see what actually happens.
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