Charlie Munger’s Thoughts on Just About Everything by Morgan Housel
Benjamin Graham used to say, “It’s not the bad investment ideas that fail; it’s the good ideas that get pushed into excess.” And that’s a lot of what happened here.
Some economic distortions come from the masses believing that other people are right. Others come from the need to make a living through behavior that may be less than socially desirable. I’ve always been skeptical of conventional wisdom. You have to be able to keep your head on when everyone else is losing theirs.
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Take soccer as an example. It’s a tremendously competitive sport, and often times one team tries to work mayhem on the other team’s best player. The referee’s job is to limit this mayhem and rein in extreme forms of competition.
Regulation is similar. Most ambitious young men will be more aggressive than they should. That’s what happened with investment banking. I mean, look at Lehman Brothers. Everyone did what they damn well wanted until the whole place was pathological about its extremeness.
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A lot of this [financial collapse] can be blamed on accountants. Accountants as a whole have been trained with too much math and not enough horse sense. If some of these insane accounting practices were never allowed, huge messes could have been avoided. Bankers have become quite good at manipulating accountants
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Learning has never been work for me. It’s play. I was born innately curious. If that doesn’t work for you, figure out your own damn system.
More good thoughts from Warren Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway.
Related: Buffett and Munger’s 2009 Q&A With Shareholders – Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2008 – Misuse of Statistics, Mania in Financial Markets – Leverage, Complex Deals and Mania
The Formula That Killed Wall Street
His method was adopted by everybody from bond investors and Wall Street banks to ratings agencies and regulators. And it became so deeply entrenched—and was making people so much money—that warnings about its limitations were largely ignored.
Then the model fell apart. Cracks started appearing early on, when financial markets began behaving in ways that users of Li’s formula hadn’t expected. The cracks became full-fledged canyons in 2008—when ruptures in the financial system’s foundation swallowed up trillions of dollars and put the survival of the global banking system in serious peril.
Very nice article on the dangers of financial markets to those that believe that math can provide all the answers. Math can help find opportunities. However markets have physical, psychological and regulatory limitations. And markets frequently experience huge panics or manias. People continue to fail to model that properly.
Related: All Models Are Wrong But Some Are Useful – Leverage, Complex Deals and Mania – Financial Markets with Robert Shiller – Financial Market Meltdown – Failure to Regulate Financial Markets Leads to Predictable Consequences
The Society for Actuaries has published a good resource: Managing post-retirement risks.
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Many investors try to own some assets whose value may grow in times of inflation. However, this sometimes will trade inflation risk for investment risk.
• Common stocks have outperformed inflation in the long run, but are
poor short-term hedges. The historically higher returns from stocks
are not guaranteed and may vary greatly during retirement years.
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Retirement planning should not rely heavily on income from a bridge job. Many retirees welcome the chance to change careers and move into an area with less pay but more job satisfaction, or with fewer demands on their time and energy.
Terminating employment before age 65 may make it difficult to find a source of affordable health insurance before Medicare is available.
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Insurance for long-term care covers disabilities so severe that assistance is needed with daily activities such as bathing, dressing and eating. Some policies require a nursing home stay; others do not. The cost of long-term care insurance is much less if purchased at younger ages, well before anticipated need.
The full document is well worth reading.
Related: Many Retirees Face Prospect of Outliving Savings – How to Protect Your Financial Health – Financial Planning Made Easy – personal finance tips
Madoff ‘victims’ do math, realize they profited
The issue came to the forefront this week as about 8,000 former Madoff clients began to receive letters inviting them to apply for up to $500,000 in aid from the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Lawyers for investors have been warning clients to do some tough math before they apply for any funds set aside for the victims, and figure out whether they were a winner or loser in the scheme.
Hundreds and maybe thousands of investors in Madoff’s funds have been withdrawing money from their accounts for many years. In many cases, those investors have withdrawn far more than their principal investment.
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Jonathan Levitt, a New Jersey attorney who represents several former Madoff clients, said more than half of the victims who called his office looking for help have turned out to be people whose long-term profits exceeded their principal investment.
I discussed this aspect last month, the SPIC covers actual losses, not losses based upon false gains you didn’t have, I don’t think. So if you invested $100,000 and were told (falsely) it was worth $300,000 after years of gains you are not covered for $300,000. And I certainly hope the SPIC fund doesn’t payoff people who already had gains based on false accounting from Madoff.
This whole situation also points out the value of diversification. Diversification is important not just in asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash, real estate…) but in the accounts and companies with which you are dealing (I have always been a bit paranoid in this feeling, compared to others that think this level of diversification is not really needed but this is an example of the risks investments face that diversification can help manage). This is a very difficult situation for investors that had counted on assess they believed they had earned but in fact they had not.
Related: Bail us Out, say Madoff Victims – How to Protect Your Financial Health – Real Free Credit Report – identity theft links
The Securities Investor Protection Corporation restores funds to investors with assets in the hands of bankrupt and otherwise financially troubled brokerage firms. The Securities Investor Protection Corporation was not chartered by Congress to combat fraud, but to return funds (with a $500,000 limit for securities and under that a $100,000 cap on cash) that you held in a covered account.
With the recent Madoff fraud case some may wonder about SIPC coverage. What SIPC would cover is cash fraudulently withdrawn from covered account (if I owned 100 shares of Google and they took my shares that is covered – as I understand it). What SIPC does not cover is investment losses. From my understanding Madoff funds suffered both these types of losses.
And I am not sure how the Ponzi scheme aspects would be seen. For example, I can’t imagine false claims from Mandoff about returns that never existed are covered. Therefore if you put in $100,000 10 years ago and were told it was now worth $400,000, I can’t image you would be covered for the $400,000 they told you it was worth – if that had just been a lie. And if your $100,000 from strictly a investing perspective (not counting money they fraudulently took to pay off other investors) was only worth $50,000 (it had actually lost value) then I think that would be the limit of your coverage. So if they had paid your $50,000 to someone else fraudulently you would be owed that. Figuring out what is covered seems like it could be very messy.
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Diversification overrated? Not a chance by Jason Zweig
For anyone with a sustainable ability to identify the hottest investment of the moment, diversification is a mistake. But if you really believe you’ve got that ability, you’re not just mistaken. You need to be hauled off in a straitjacket to the Institute for the Treatment of Investment Insanity.
Exactly right. As we posted previously Warren Buffett’s diversification thoughts are similar
You have to remember when Warren Buffett says “professional and have confidence” he doesn’t really mean just what those words say. He mean if you are Charlie Munger, George Soros, Jimmy Rodgers and maybe 10 other people alive today (maybe I am too restrictive, maybe he would include 50 more people alive today, but I doubt it).
Related: Dilbert on Investing – investment risks – Curious Cat Investing and Economics Search Engine
The challenges are difficult. I am not confident the current leadership (if their is leadership globally) is capable of making the difficult decisions. There are not easy answers though their are some pretty basic principles people should agree on (excessive leverage is dangerous, massive positions that endanger entire economies are dangerous…). But how to deal with those issues is not easy.
Related: Leverage, Complex Deals and Mania – Treasury Now (1987) Favors Creation of Huge Banks – Monopolies and Oligopolies do not a Free Market Make – Negligent Watchmen
401(k)s are a great way to save. Yes, today those that have been saving money have the disappointment of bad recent results. But that is a minor factor compared to the major problem: Americans not saving what they need to for retirement in 401(k)s, IRAs, even just emergency funds… Do not use the scary financial market performance recently as an excuse to avoid retirement savings (if you have actually been doing well).
The importance of saving enough for retirement is actually increased by the recent results. You might have to re-evaluate your expectations and see whether you have been saving enough. I am actually considering increasing my contributions, mainly to take advantage of lower prices. But another benefit of doing so would be to add more to retirement savings, given me more safety in case long term results are not what I was hoping for.
Now there can be some 401(k) plans that are less ideal. Limited investing options can make them less valuable. Those limited options could include the lack of good diverse choices, index funds, international, money market, real estate, short term bond funds… My real estate fund is down about 2% in the last year (unlike what some might think based on the media coverage of declining housing prices). And poor investing options could include diverse but not good options (options with high expenses… [ the article, see blow, mentions some with a 2% expense rate - that is horrible]).
But those poor implementations of 401(K)s are not equivalent to making 401(k)s un-viable for saving. It might reduce the value of 401(k)s to some people (those will less good 401(k) plans). Or it might even make it so for people with bad 401(k) options that they should not save using it (or that they limit the amount in their 401k). I don’t know of such poor options, but it is theoretically possible.
The tax deferral is a huge benefit. That benefit will only increase as tax rates rise (given the huge debt we have built up it is logical to believe taxes will go up to pay off spending today with the tax increases passed to the future to pay for our current spending).
And if you get matching of 410(k) contributions that can often more than make up for other less than ideal aspects of a particular 401(k) option.
Also once you leave a job you can roll the 401(k) assets into an IRA and invest in a huge variety of assets. So even if the 401k options are not great, it is normally wise to add to them and then just roll them into an IRA when you leave. If the plan is bad, also you can use an IRA for your first $5,000 in annual retirement savings and then add additional amounts in the 401k (if they are matching funds normally adding enough to get the matching is best).
401(k)s, 403(b), IRAs… are still great tools for saving. The performance of financial markets recently have been poor. Accepting periods of poor performance is hard psychologically. But retirement accounts are still a excellent tool for saving for retirement. Using them correctly is important: allocating resources correctly, moving into safer asset allocations as one approaches and reaches retirement…
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The FDIC limit has been raised to $250,000 which is a good thing. The increased limit is only a temporary measure (through Dec 31, 2009) but hopefully it will be extended before it expires. I don’t see anything magical about $250,000 but something like $200,000 (or more) seems reasonable to me. The coverage level was increased to $100,000 in 1980.
What does federal deposit insurance cover?
FDIC insurance covers funds in deposit accounts, including checking and savings accounts, money market deposit accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). FDIC insurance does not, however, cover other financial products and services that insured banks may offer, such as stocks, bonds, mutual fund shares, life insurance policies, annuities or municipal securities.
Joint accounts are covered for $250,000 per co-owner. The limit is per person, per institution, so all your accounts at one institution are added together. If you have $200,000 in CDs and $100,000 in savings you would have $50,000 that is not covered.
FDIC is an excellent example of good government in action. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was created in 1933 and serves to stabilize banking by eliminating the need to get ahead of any panic about whether the bank you have funds in is in trouble (which then leads to people creating a run on the bank…)
From an FDIC September 25 2008 news release: the current FDIC balance is $45 billion (that is after a decrease of $7.6 billion in the second quarter). The FDIC is 100% paid for by fees on banks. The FDIC can raise the fees charged banks if the insurance fund needs to get increased funds.
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Great advice from Warren Buffett. He spoke to students at UTexas at Austin business school and one of the students, Dang Le, posted notes of the discussion online. The internet is great.
On diversification:
Great advice. Warren Buffett uses great concentration (little diversification) but you are not Warren Buffett.
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Getting turned down by HBS [Harvard Business School] was one of the best things that could have happened to me, bad luck can turn out to be good.
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We did an informal office survey by looking at the total tax footprint versus the total income. I earned 46 million and paid a tax rate of 17.5%. My rate was the lowest, the average was 33%, and my cleaning lady paid 40%. The system is tilted towards the rich. The Forbes 400 total net worth has gone from 220 billion to 1.54 trillion, an increase of 7-to-1. You see in legislature that there is lobbying carried on by the powerful over issues such as the estate tax and carried interest for private equity investments. We need to flatten income and payroll taxes, and those making under $30,000 shouldn’t be bothered.
It is hard to beat reading Warren Buffet’s ideas on investing and economics.
Related: Buffett on Taxes – The Berkshire Hathaway Meeting 2007 – Buffett’s 2006 Letter to Shareholders – Warren Buffett’s 2004 Annual Report – books on investing