Today, the market capitalization of Apple exceeded Google for the first time since Google went public. Both Companies are now valued at $185 billion. In 2007 Google had revenue of $16.6 billion and net profit of $4.2 billion. Apple had revenue of $24 billion and net profit of $3.5 billion. Since Google went public on 27 August 2004 their stock price is up 367% and Apple is up 1064% – both pretty good. I own Google and have it as the largest holding in the 12 stocks for 10 years portfolio.
Related: Buy Google – Stop Picking Stocks – Lazy Portfolio Results – Great Google Earnings
The USA stock market has not been doing so well recently (the S&P 500 index is down over 9% so far this year). And I own S&P 500 indexes in my retirement account (in addition to other index funds). So I am losing money on those investments but I am not worried. It is possible the market will do very poorly over the next few months, year… if the economy struggles (and with the huge credit card like spending Washington much of the last 30 years and huge increases in gas prices that is certainly possible). But I am not worried.
I don’t plan on using that money for decades. Therefore the short term declines really have no impact on my life. Sure if I was able to move all that money into a money market fund for the decline and then move it back into stock funds for the increase that would be wonderful. But I can’t and no-one has proven to be able to time the market effectively over the long term. It is unlikely you or I will be the ones that do it right. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market was lower at the end of the year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was higher either.
Dollar cost averaging is the best long term strategy (not trying to time the market). And using that strategy, if you assume stocks reach whatever level they do say 20 years from now, I am actually better off will prices falling now – so I can buy more shares now that will reach that final price. You actually are better off with wild swings in stock prices, when you dollar cost average, than if they just went up .8% every single month (if both ended with stocks at the same price 20 years later). Really the wilder the better (the limit is essentially the limit at which the economy was harmed by the wild swings (people deciding they didn’t want to take risk, make investments…) to the point that the final value 20 years later is deflated.
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I originally setup the 10 stocks for 10 years portfolio in April of 2005.
At this time the stocks in the sleep well portfolio in order of returns:
| Stock | Current Return | % of sleep well portfolio now | % of the portfolio if I were buying today | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google – GOOG | 163% | 17% | 14% | |
| Amazon – AMZN | 124% | 7% | 7% | |
| PetroChina – PTR | 114% | 7% | 7% | |
| Templeton Dragon Fund – TDF | 90% | 10% | 10% | |
| Templeton Emerging Market Fund – EMF | 47% | 4% | 4% | |
| Cisco – CSCO | 42% | 7% | 8% | |
| Toyota – TM | 38% | 10% | 11% | |
| Tesco – TSCDY | 9% | 0% | 10% | |
| Intel – INTC | 3% | 5% | 6% | |
| Danaher – DHR | 1% | 5% | 8% | |
| Pfizer – PFE | -29% | 4% | 6% | |
| Dell | -30% | 7% | 6% |
At this point I am most positive on Google, Toyota, Templeton Dragon Fund and Tesco. I am wary of Dell – they seem to be moving in the wrong direction, but I am willing to give them longer to improve. I am even more wary of Prizer but again willing to stick with them for the long term. I will be looking for a suitable replacement.
In order to track performance I setup a marketocracy portfolio but had to make some minor adjustments. The current marketocracy calculated annualized rate or return (which excludes Tesco) is 9.8% (the S&P 500 annualized return for the period is 7.9%) – marketocracy subtracts the equivalent of 2% of assets annually to simulate management fees – as though the portfolio were a mutual fund – so without that the return is about 10.8%). View the current marketocracy Sleep Well portfolio page.
Related: 12 Stocks for 10 Years Update (Feb 2008) – Retirement Account Allocations for Someone Under 40 – Lazy Portfolio Results
For those that don’t find picking stocks fun it is nice to know that just investing in indexes is likely the best option for almost everyone. I have much of my retirement assets invested in index funds. I still think I can beat the market (though the results of the last few months have not been kind) but the amount I invest in individual stocks is not a huge percentage of my portfolio. I still like Google, for example, and in fact might well be buying more this week (it is down over 10% since I added to my position a couple weeks ago). Can You Beat the Market? It’s a $100 Billion Question
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From 1986 to 2006, according to his calculations, the proportion of the aggregate market cap that is invested in index funds more than doubled, to 17.9 percent. As a result, the negative-sum game played by active investors has grown ever more negative.
The bottom line is this: The best course for the average investor is to buy and hold an index fund for the long term. Even if you think you have compelling reasons to believe a particular trade could beat the market, the odds are still probably against you.
Interesting. I am surprised by the rapid increase in the total expense of trying to beat the market. I guess all those wall street bonuses add up. In my opinion the article does not provide adequate support the claims made, but I think overall the claim are sensible (based on numerous studies of results). The odds of beating the market yourself are very low. And the odds of paying the right people to beat the market for you are likely not worth the cost (in the market today).
Related: Advice from Warren Buffett – Stop Picking Stocks? – 12 Stocks for 10 Years Update – Feb 2008
Great advice from Warren Buffett. He spoke to students at UTexas at Austin business school and one of the students, Dang Le, posted notes of the discussion online. The internet is great.
On diversification:
Great advice. Warren Buffett uses great concentration (little diversification) but you are not Warren Buffett.
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Getting turned down by HBS [Harvard Business School] was one of the best things that could have happened to me, bad luck can turn out to be good.
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We did an informal office survey by looking at the total tax footprint versus the total income. I earned 46 million and paid a tax rate of 17.5%. My rate was the lowest, the average was 33%, and my cleaning lady paid 40%. The system is tilted towards the rich. The Forbes 400 total net worth has gone from 220 billion to 1.54 trillion, an increase of 7-to-1. You see in legislature that there is lobbying carried on by the powerful over issues such as the estate tax and carried interest for private equity investments. We need to flatten income and payroll taxes, and those making under $30,000 shouldn’t be bothered.
It is hard to beat reading Warren Buffet’s ideas on investing and economics.
Related: Buffett on Taxes – The Berkshire Hathaway Meeting 2007 – Buffett’s 2006 Letter to Shareholders – Warren Buffett’s 2004 Annual Report – books on investing
I originally setup the 10 stocks for 10 years portfolio in April of 2005. At this time the stocks in the sleep well portfolio in order of returns -
| Stock | Current Return | % of sleep well portfolio now | % of the portfolio if I were buying today | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina – PTR | 298% | 11% | 7% | |
| Google – GOOG | 210% | 17% | 13% | |
| Amazon – AMZN | 173% | 7.5% | 7% | |
| Templeton Dragon Fund – TDF | 116% | 17% | 13% | |
| Cisco – CSCO | 67% | 6.5% | 8% | |
| Templeton Emerging Market Fund – EMF | 67% | 3.5% | 5% | |
| Toyota – TM | 48% | 7% | 10% | |
| Tesco – TSCDY | 25% | 0% | 10% | |
| Intel – INTC | 18% | 4% | 8% | |
| Yahoo – YHOO | -2% | 4% | 5% | |
| Pfizer – PFE | -9% | 5% | 8% | |
| Dell | -16% | 7% | 10% |
In order to track performance I setup a marketocracy portfolio but had to make some adjustment to comply with the diversification rules. In December of 2006 I announced a new 11 stocks for the next 10 years (9 are the same, I dropped First Data Corporation, which had split into 2 companies and added Tesco and Yahoo). Earlier this year I added Templeton Emerging Market Fund (EMF) and reduced the TDF portion. Tesco also pays a dividend which I am not including in the calculation – that is one reason marketocracy is so nice it keeps track of all those details for you.
I have orders in to sell some of the PTR and TDF if the prices rises a bit more. In the marketocracy portfolio I have several smaller positions. I do this to comply with marketocracy’s diversity rules – I also have about 8% in cash (they still won’t let me buy Tesco). Google, PetroChina and Amazon have had an incredible few months. I am getting a little tired of Yahoo’s failure to deliver. I also think Amazon’s price has gotten a bit ahead of the performance but I think the performance is great and the long term looks strong.
The current marketocracy calculated annualized rate or return (which excludes Tesco – reducing the return, and has a significant cash position reducing the return) is 20% (the S&P 500 annualized return for the period is 13.4% – in addition to the other reductions in the return, marketocracy subtracts the equivalent of 2% of assets annually to simulate management fees – as though the portfolio were a mutual fund). View the current marketocracy Sleep Well portfolio page.
Related: 12 Stocks for 10 Years Update (Jun 2007) – 10 Stocks for 10 Years Update (Feb 2007) – 10 Stocks for 10 Years Update (Dec 2005)