Next Stop, Tysons – good article on urban planning and real estate development in Northern Virginia. Urban planning can create excellent real estate development opportunities but it is not easy. It is easy to look around the country and see how poorly planned development has been resulting in huge wastes of time through long commutes. But it is not surprising, smart planning requires long term thinking which is often lacking. Arlington made excellent decisions in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s (and I am sure plenty of less than perfect ones too). The wrong decisions could have been made during that process that would have greatly reduced the benefits. Arlington now seems pretty well set and now the path toward smart development is the default position. Still they have challenges.
Fairfax, which borders Arlington, made poorer decisions in the past. Now they have difficult decisions. It will be interesting to see how they can do. Both counties have a huge incentive to push for more subway capacity but we will see if they do it. They can’t wait until the need is urgent. Any plans will likely take decades to bring online. Plans have been floated for many years but still nothing has been decided.
“If we don’t change the old pattern of growth and development, we will continue to get what we have always gotten,” said Gerald E. Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors.
It is not going to be a simple process and many years of tough decisions, good management, good planning will need to follow any decisions made now. But the options of clustering high density development seems like the best bet for success to me. One strategy of a real estate investor can be to find a good long term (say 10+ years) play (like Arlington) and invest before the prices skyrocket. Then just sit back as the likely takes place and watch your investment grow.
Arlington now has fairly high housing prices, the question is likely whether they have skyrocketed yet (many say they have – I am not so sure, they are not cheap but for what the potential for the area is they could go much higher). It certainly is not as great an opportunity as it was in 1995. The government sure feels flush – spending over $80 million each for 2 high school in the next couple of years (replacing schools build a few decades ago – school population is actually shrinking not growing)! Real estate taxes have been increasing dramatically each year to pay for more and more spending.
Housing sales drop in 40 states:
While there is no agreed upon definition of bubble bursting, a almost 3% decline certainly can’t be seen as a “bursting bubble” can it?
Again hardly data of bubble bursting proportions.
Related: Coming Collapse in Housing? – Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? – Colored Bubbles
The main point of this article is the increasing evidence of problems due to loose underwriting for mortgages of the last few years. Mortgage defaults: Latest woe for housing:
The overall mortgage delinquency rate was 4.7 percent in the third quarter, just slightly above the 4.4 percent rate of a year earlier, when it was a historic low.
The problem of loose credit is real and important. But isn’t it really amazing how 4.4% is the historic low for mortgages over a month late? That seems really high too me. Obviously 13.2% for sub-prime loans shows how risky it is to take out such a loan. In my opinion, the delinquency rate for over 90 days late is a more important figure (but these numbers can serve as a leading indicator).
Related: articles on investing – investment dictionary – How Not to Convert Equity
Exurbs hardest hit in recent housing slump:
Average home prices in Loudon County, Virginia, 35 miles outside of Washington, D.C., fell roughly 11 percent in 2006, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. By contrast, Virginia’s Arlington County, which hugs the nation’s capital, saw a price decline of only about 2 percent.
And, so far there has been no “bust.” As I mentioned previously I did not, and do not, see a “bursting of the real estate bubble” overall.
Related: Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? – real estate investing articles
There are few investment opportunities as valuable as IRAs (tax sheltered retirement accounts) – nor many more critical to successful personal financial success (for younger or older really). Roth IRAs a smart bet for younger set by Tami Luhby.
The beauty of the Roth IRA and 401(k) is that there’s no tax on the capital gains in the accounts, so the longer you have to accumulate those gains, the better.
Mathematically, if the tax rate in the year of the contribution and the tax rate at the year of withdrawal are equal a Roth IRA and regular IRA provide the same value. However, in addition to earning less money in while young and therefor being in a lower tax bracket there is also the benefit from a Roth IRA of eliminating the risk of an increasing tax rate structure. Since money withdrawn from a Roth IRA is not taxable. This is a huge benefit.
So add to your IRA for last year if you have not already and add to your IRA for this year now. Also add to any employer matched 401(k) for your long term retirement savings. Few investments will have the long term impact of adding to retirement accounts early and often.
Related: Saving for Retirement
Nicolas Darvas wrote a classic investment book – How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market. In it he provides an honest and open look at his experience from his naive start to his eventual success. He lays out, in great detail, exactly what he did and how foolish some of his actions were. Then he explains how he came to find success by focusing on the price and volume action of stocks. While honing his investment strategy, in the 1950’s, he traveled the world working as a world class ballroom dancer and placed order via cable.
As with other classic investing books age does not detract from this books value. The book is very similar in form to another classic: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre (about his experience in the early 1900s).
Darvas’ method was a forerunner of the many technical analysis schemes used today. He is extensively referenced by William O’Neil (of Investor’s Business Daily fame) and other leading technicians. An extremely simplified overview of Darvas’ method: determine “boxes” (trading ranges) for a stock and buy on the breakout, to the upside, of the box. He used very close trailing stop loss orders to minimize losses. He sought to make large gains (let his winners run) and take losses quickly.
Stop Picking Stocks—Immediately! by Henry Blodget. I don’t agree totally with his conclusion but the article is a good read. Definitely the kind of information investors need to know. I do agree that most of the time for 90%+ of the population stock picking doesn’t turn out to be the best financial move. Three counterpoints for why it can make sense: 1) tax smart investing (for buy and hold) 2) investor education (if you pay more attention by buying some individual stocks as part of an entire investment strategy) 3) the Peter Lynch buy what you know small cap strategy (buying companies that you understand better than “wall street” – as a part of an investment portfolio). From the article:
Related: Curious Cat Investment Bookstore including: The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham with forward by Warren Buffett and Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd
Do lower oil prices mean the end of the saving glut?:
There is also clearly a savings glut in the oil exporting countries. Lahart – drawing on work by Higgins, Klitgaard and Lerman of the New York Fed – notes that the oil exporters saved about ½ the surge in their oil export revenue over the past few years. The result: the current account surplus of many oil exporters surged to over 30% of their GDP.
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The oil exporters seem to have gotten noticeably less frugal over time. They were very frugal in 2004. A bit less frugal in 2005. And even less frugal in 2006.
As usual a good post by Brad Setser. The details of understanding the “savings glut” get complicated but essentially the idea is that huge savings from China, OPEC countries… create huge sums looking for investments (and fund the huge USA debts – public and private). And to some economists create the market for the debt (for example, without the savings glut their belief is there would not have been money to finance the huge questionable mortgage market over the last few year). As stated in, The Global Savings Glut:
And nearly all economist agree the “savings glut” creates the very low interest rates we have seen the last few years around the world.
Related: The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit by Ben Bernanke – Savings Glut (The self-serving explanation for America’s bad habits) by Daniel Gross – Global Savings Glut Revisited – The Savings Glut
Earn more, spend more, want more:
It does seem many people lose focus on happiness and instead focus on buying more things. This is something that I believe is a problem.
The Washington Post really doesn’t like Social Security … by Brad Setser
This is not the way the story is normally told. Social Security is actually in good shape for at least 30 years. That doesn’t mean it is not a big problem after that but Brad Setser makes a good point that the huge increase in the rest of the debt has really made that problem seem minor. The main point? We need to fix the rest of the budget mess, and while I still think Social Security needs adjustment really that is not as important as fixing the rest of the spending money the government doesn’t have.
Related: Estate Tax Repeal