Canada’s banking system kept high and dry by strict regulation: Flaherty
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Some of the fundamentals credited with keeping Canada’s banks in the safe zone were put in place nearly a decade ago by the Liberal government of Jean Chretien, including a refusal to approve any Canadian bank mergers.
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The finance minister said Canada is in a strong position to deal with the global crisis, with a strong banking system, a stable housing market and a federal budget surplus. “Other countries have been increasing their deposit standards, but they’re still for the most part below the high Canadian standard,” he said.
Related: Monopolies and Oligopolies do not a Free Market Make – Too Big to Fail – What Should You Do With Your Government “Stimulus” Check? – The Budget Deficit, the Current Account Deficit and the Saving Deficit – 2nd Largest Bank Failure in USA History
I would say the chance of a depression in the next 5 years is very unlikely. The last 2 years have been full of bad economic news but a depression is still not likely, in my opinion. However, much of the public, seems to think it is likely – Poll: 60% say depression ‘likely’
* 25% unemployment rate
* Widespread bank failures
* Millions of Americans homeless and unable to feed their families
In response, 21% of those polled say that a depression is very likely and another 38% say it is somewhat likely. The poll also found that 29% feel a depression is not very likely, while 13% believe it is not likely at all.
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The economists surveyed by CNNMoney.com said they saw a drop of 2% to 4% in a worst case scenario.
I must say I don’t think those polled don’t really hold their belief very firmly. If you actually see a depression as likely you have to take drastic steps with your finances. I really doubt many of them are and instead think they are casually saying they think it is likely without really thinking about what that would mean.
I don’t see it as likely and don’t see any need to change significantly what made good personal financial sense 2 years ago. The biggest change I see (over the last couple of months) is the importance of taking smart person finance actions has increased dramatically. The smart moves are pretty much the same but the risks to failing to create an emergency fund, abusing your credit card, losing a job… have increased dramatically.
Related: Uncertain Economic Times – Personal Finance Basics: Health Insurance – Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap
Warren Buffett quotes from the interview:
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- “AIG would be doing fine today if they never heard of derivatives… I said they were possibly financial weapons of mass destruction and they have been, I mean they destroyed AIG, they certainly contributed to the destruction of Bear Stearns and Lehman”
- The biggest single cause was that we had an incredible residential real estate bubble.
- [on consuming more than we are producing] I don’t think it is the most pressing problem at all. We are trading away a little bit of our country all the time for the excess consumption that we have, over what we produce. That is not good. I think it is terrible over time.
Related: Warren Buffett related posts – Credit Crisis Continues – Credit Crisis (August 2007)
I give more credence to Warren Buffett’s thoughts on this than anyone else, though, of course, he could be wrong. Buffett: My fix for the economy
Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), called the problems facing world markets “unprecedented” and warned of a “disaster” if Congress does not move faster to shore up the economy.
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Under Buffett’s plan, Treasury would lend hedge funds, Wall Street firms or any other investors 80% of the price for distressed assets. Investors would benefit from borrowing at lower rates available to the Treasury. But the government would get first claim on the sale of those assets, which means it would get its loan back plus interest and possibly turn a profit. Only then would investors see a penny.
“Now you have someone with 20% skin in the game,” explained Buffett. “Believe me, I won’t be overpaying if I’m buying with that kind of leverage. And you have someone [the investors] to manage the assets to the extent they need to be managed.”
Buffett also noted that the presence of the government in the transactions would raise the price of assets above the absolute firesale levels for which they could now be sold. That would benefit the banks trying to unload them.
It is a mess. And politicians should be held accountable for eliminating regulation (through law changes, political appointees that were chosen specifically to not enforce regulations, restricting money for enforcement…) to reward those that paid them a lot of money. But they won’t be, so there you go. I would love to be wrong about that but I don’t think I will.
Related: 2005 annual meeting with Buffett and Munger – Misuse of Statistics, Mania in Financial Markets – General Air Travel Taxes Subsidizing Private Plane Airports – Central Bank Intervention Unprecedented in scale and Scope (March 2008)
The updated data from the United Nations on manufacturing output by country clearly shows the USA remains by far the largest manufacturer in the world. UN Data, in billions of current US dollars:
| Country | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,041 | 1,289 | 1,543 | 1,663 | 1,700 | 1,831 |
| China | 143 | 299 | 484 | 734 | 891 | 1,106 |
| Japan | 804 | 1,209 | 1.034 | 954 | 934 | 926 |
| Germany | 438 | 517 | 392 | 566 | 595 | 670 |
| Russian Federation | 211 | 104 | 73 | 222 | 281 | 362 |
| Italy | 240 | 226 | 206 | 289 | 299 | 345 |
| United Kingdom | 207 | 219 | 228 | 269 | 303 | 342 |
| France | 224 | 259 | 190 | 249 | 248 | 296 |
| Korea | 65 | 129 | 134 | 200 | 220 | 241 |
| Canada | 92 | 100 | 129 | 177 | 195 | 218 |
| Spain | 101 | 103 | 98 | 164 | 176 | 208 |
| Brazil | 120 | 125 | 96 | 137 | 170 | 206 |
| Additional countries of interest – not the next largest | ||||||
| India | 50 | 59 | 67 | 118 | 135 | 167 |
| Mexico | 50 | 55 | 107 | 122 | 136 | 144 |
| Indonesia | 29 | 60 | 46 | 80 | 102 | 121 |
| Turkey | 33 | 38 | 38 | 75 | 85 | 101 |
The USA’s share of the manufacturing output of the countries that manufactured over $200 billion in 2007 (the 12 countries on the top of the chart above) in 1990 was 28%, 1995 28%, 2000 33%, 2005 30%, 2006 28%, 2007 27%. China’s share has grown from 4% in 1990, 1995 7%, 2000 11%, 2005 13%, 2006 15%, 2007 16%.
Total manufacturing output in the USA was up 76% in 2007 from the 1990 level. Japan, the second largest manufacturer in 1990, and third today, has increased output 15% (the lowest of the top 12, France is next lowest at 32%) while China is up an amazing 673% (Korea is next at an increase of 271%).
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Short selling is when you sell something before you buy it (you try to sell high and then buy low later, instead of buying low and then selling high later). In order to sell short, you are required to borrow the shares that you then sell. So if I own 1,000 shares of Google (I wish), I could lend them to someone to sell. Nothing happens to my position, it is just that those shares are now allocated to that short sale. If I sell them then the short seller has to go borrow them elsewhere or buy the stock to close their position. In general the borrowing is either from brokers that hold shares for individuals or from large institution (mutual funds, insurance companies…).
However from everything that I read it appears the SEC hasn’t bothered to actually enforce this law much. There was a bunch of excitement recently when the SEC announced it would bother to enforce the law to protect a few large banks, many of whom are said to practice naked short selling but didn’t like it when that was done to their stock. As you can see, this does make the SEC look pretty bad, when they chose to enforce a law, not in all circumstances, but only to protect a few of those who actually take advantage of the SEC’s failure to enforce the law to make money.
CEOs Launch Web Site To Protect Short Sellers
Some people find the whole concept of short selling bad since it is based on making money on stock price declines. I don’t feel that way and believe it can help the market. But it requires regulators that actually do their jobs and enforce laws. A favorite tacit of those who seek to keep open special ways for themselves to benefit from abusing the system is to try and make things seem complex. The recent SEC order saying they would enforce the intent of the law to protect a few powerful banks from the behavior many (or most) practice themselves for years shows that it isn’t that complicated.
Adding the decision not to enforce the requirement to borrow shares to their recent decision to eliminate the requirement that short sales take place on down ticks in price (a measure put in after the 1929 stock market crash to not have short sellers accelerate market declines and insight panic seems like a really bad combination).
Related: Shorting Using Inverse Funds – Monopolies and Oligopolies do not a Free Market Make – Fed Continues Wall Street Welfare – SEC data on “failures to deliver”
There are ways to get more vacation time
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According to Robinson, mentioning to your boss that you are willing to go on vacation without any pay can often be a very effective way to get some time off.
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Take what you get: It may seem obvious, but many people don’t check how much time they are entitled to take off. Many others are reluctant to take the average nine days of paid vacation to which they are entitled, often because they are afraid it will show weakness or lack of loyalty.
Joe Robinson said there may be “ongoing subtle discouragement” in the work force, but employees should remember that they are entitled to their vacation and should not be afraid to take it. In 2005, U.S. workers collectively turned down a staggering 1.6 million years of vacation time that was offered to them.
I find these discussions of how little time off we have interesting. Similar studies look further back, at hunter gathers and find similar patterns. Still they are a bit misleading. What about total hours worked during the year (for peasants). What about the conditions of work and life. What about life expectancy… Still I agree with the thought that more vacation is more important than more work to fund more spending. I would rather reduce my spending and have more free time. I have taken unpaid vacation myself, and have worked part time, at times, to buy myself more freedom to spend my time as I wished.
Related: Vacation: Systems Thinking – Workplace Experiments
Retirement planning is a huge financial need and one of the areas where financial literacy can pay off very well. Understanding the incredible power of compound interest can be used to start your retirement savings early and provide you with a huge benefit. Understanding the risks of inflation can guide your investment decisions. The recent Business Week Retirement Guide is very good. In Spending Safely, they explore how to spend while preserving your capital in retirement.
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Bengen now suggests that the 4% figure – actually 4.1% for a 60/40 portfolio of large caps and bonds and 4.5% if you toss in small caps – merely seems impressive when plugged into Excel (MSFT) spreadsheets. In practice, the strategy, which Bengen stopped using with his own clients about three years ago, is inflexible and unrealistic he says – and the formula is too stingy.
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Flexibility is factored into Bengen’s revised approach, which permits withdrawals to fluctuate within guidelines. His “floor-and-ceiling strategy” suggests that an initial withdrawal rate of 5.16% would be appropriate if a retiree pares back subsequent withdrawals by as much as 10% of the initial withdrawal during hard times (the floor). On the other hand, a retiree could withdraw extra cash equaling up to 25% of the first-year withdrawal (the ceiling) when the market is strong.
This adjusted thinking is correct I believe. People want simpler answers but some things just require a more complex understanding.
Related: How Much Retirement Income? – Add to Your Roth IRA – Retirement Tips from TIAA CREF – Our Only Hope: Retiring Later
Are You Financially Literate? Do this Simple Test to Find Out by Annamaria Lusardi.
a) More than $102
b) Exactly $102
c) Less than $102
d) Do not know
2) Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1% per year and inflation was 2% per year. After 1 year, would you be able to buy more than, exactly the same as, or less than today with the money in this account?
a) More than today
b) Exactly the same as today
c) Less than today
d) Do not know
3) Do you think that the following statement is true or false? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”
a) True
b) False
c) Do not know
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To be “financially literate” you need to answer correctly to all three questions.
And I would add, just answering those 3 simple questions does not mean you are. But if you don’t answer all 3 correctly you are not financially literate. We provide several resources to help people improve their literacy, including: our blog posts on financial literacy, Curious Cat Investing Dictionary and Curious Cat Investing Books.
Related: Questions You Should Ask About Your Investments – Annual Percentage Rate (APR) – Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders
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In response to: Fair Use Rights by David Bradley
Copyright is a taking of a public benefit for a private entity. This was put into law in order to increase the total public benefit. The idea was that taking from the public to provide the creator a limited-term, exclusive, government-granted, right to their work would encourage individuals to invest their time in creating works that would benefit society.
So the debate is properly about how great the taking from the public should be. It seem to me the current situation is completely corrupt. Many of the actions are taking public benefit to provide to the private entity where no possible public benefit exists. Extending copyright periods of long ago created works, where obviously the public is harmed purely for private benefit. No possible argument can be made that their is a payoff to the public for this taking.
If you wanted to take such an action and made it only for new work then their could be an argument that now a creator knows they have 100 years of government provided rights and therefore investing more time and effort in their work creates new and better work. I don’t believe this argument but at least it is possible. The current actions though are mainly about large companies using government to take from the public to provide themselves private benefit with no corresponding public benefit.
Lawrence Lessig is the person who has the best insight in this area, in my opinion: The Value of the Public Domain.
Dr. Deming published his seven deadly diseases of western management a couple decades ago. I would add 2 new diseases: Excessive executive compensation and a broken intellectual property system.
Fair use is the right to reference (and quote limited portions of) works that have been granted government copyright protection. This is integral to the whole idea of creating the greatest public benefit (even while providing some government imposed limits on public rights to the creator). The large companies now are using lawyers to greatly increase the harm to society by expanding the taking of public benefit. They threaten and scare many into paying fees (or completely avoiding works that have been granted limited government granted copyright rights) where none are are rightly due (see Lawrence Lessig for examples). This causes great harm to society for the private benefit of a few. This is an obvious failure of government. Those countries that are successful at adopting more sensible systems are going to have a great advantage over those countries that chose to continue to increasingly bad practices of harming society to benefit a few private interests.
Related: What is Wrong with Copyright Taking Public Good for Private Special Interests – Innovation and Creative Commons – Diplomacy and Science Research – More Government Waste – Crazy Watchmen – General Air Travel Taxes Subsidizing Private Plane Airports – China and the Sugar Industry Tax Consumers