I really like micro-credit as a tool to improve the lives of those willing to put in the effort to build a successful business. I do worry however, that the actual success is less than what is hoped. The idea is so appealing but objective results are not as obvious (for one thing the results, do not seem to be available). I want to find research that indicates what will make micro-credit most effective at improving the economic well being of people. Small change by Drake Bennett
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They created their controlled experiment by altering the algorithm the bank used to evaluate creditworthiness so that some borderline applicants were randomly denied loans while other otherwise identical applicants had loans approved.
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Working with a microcredit bank in India that was looking to expand in the city of Hyderabad, the researchers did find some small positive effects. Borrowers who already had a business did see some increase in profit. Households without businesses that the researchers judged more predisposed to start one were found to cut back on spending, suggesting they were saving to augment their loan for a capital business expense like a pushcart or a sewing machine.
Overall the article suggests that the data is hard to get. The time of the studies may be too short to see improvement. And the gains seen are small. I do believe we are in danger of creating problems with the rapid expansion of micro-credit. I can understand why, the situation is desperate for billions of people still. And we do not have many good methods for improving economic conditions for the world’s poor. I still strongly support micro-credit but I worry, especially if interest rates are high, that it may not help. We need to study what is working and adopt methods that will bring about improved results.
Related: Creating a World Without Poverty – Capitalism from the Ground Up – MicroFinance Currency Risk – 2006 Nobel Peace Prize to Grameen Bank Founder
Manufacturing is an powerful driver of economic wealth. For years I have been providing data to counter the contention that the manufacturing base of the USA is gone and the little bit left was shrinking. The latest data again shows the USA is the largest manufacturer, and manufacturing in the USA continues to grow. It is true global manufacturing has begun to grow more rapidly than USA manufacturing in the last few years. I doubt many suspect that the USA’s share of manufacturing stayed stable from 1990 to 1995 then grew to 2000 took until 2006 to return to the 1990-1995 levels and then has declined in 2007 and 2008 a bit below the 1990 level and during that entire time was growing (even in 2007 and 2008).
The USA’s share of the manufacturing output, of the countries that manufactured over $185 billion in 2008, 28% in 1990, 28% in 1995, 32% in 2000, 28% in 2005, 28% in 2006, 26% in 2007 and 24% in 2008. China’s share has grown from 4% in 1990, 6% in 1995, 10% in 2000, 13% in 2005, 14% in 2006, 16% in 2007 to 18% in 2008. Japan’s share has fallen from 22% in 1990 to 14% in 2008 (after increasing to 26% in 1995 then steadily falling). The USA has about 4.5% of the world population, China about 20%.
Based on the latest UN Data, for global manufacturing, in billions of current US dollars:
| Country | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,041 | 1,289 | 1,543 | 1,624 | 1,712 | 1,756 | 1,831 |
| China | 145 | 300 | 484 | 734* | 891* | 1,106* | 1,399** |
| Japan | 810 | 1,219 | 1,034 | 979 | 927 | 923 | 1,045 |
| Germany | 438 | 517 | 392 | 571 | 608 | 711 | 767 |
| Italy | 240 | 226 | 206 | 295 | 302 | 345 | 381 |
| United Kingdom | 206 | 218 | 226 | 264 | 295 | 323 | 323 |
| France | 200 | 233 | 190 | 255 | 255 | 287 | 306 |
| Russian Federation | 120 | 64 | 45 | 124 | 157 | 206 | 256 |
| Brazil | 120 | 125 | 96 | 137 | 163 | 201 | 237 |
| Korea | 66 | 131 | 136 | 211 | 234 | 260 | 231 |
| Spain | 112 | 104 | 98 | 160 | 170 | 196 | 222 |
| Mexico | 62 | 67 | 133 | 154 | 175 | 182 | 197 |
| Canada | 92 | 100 | 129 | 168 | 182 | 197 | 195 |
| India | 51 | 61 | 69 | 122 | 141 | 177 | 188 |
* I am using the data from last year that separated the manufacturing data (this year the data does not provide separate manufacturing data for China) instead of that shown in the most recent data (which doesn’t separate manufacturing)
** The China data is not provided for manufacturing alone. The percentage of manufacturing (to manufacturing, mining and utilities) was 78% for 2005-2007 (I used 78% of the manufacturing, mining and utilities figure provided in the 2008 data).
I hope to write a series of posts examining global manufacturing data including looking at manufacturing data specifically (excluding mining and utility data).
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The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom, Indiana University, USA, “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson, University of California, Berkeley, USA, “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm.”
Elinor Ostrom has challenged the conventional wisdom that common property is poorly managed and should be either regulated by central authorities or privatized. Based on numerous studies of user-managed fish stocks, pastures, woods, lakes, and groundwater basins, Ostrom concludes that the outcomes are, more often than not, better than predicted by standard theories. She observes that resource users frequently develop sophisticated mechanisms for decision-making and rule enforcement to handle conflicts of interest, and she characterizes the rules that promote successful outcomes.
Oliver Williamson has argued that markets and hierarchical organizations, such as firms, represent alternative governance structures which differ in their approaches to resolving conflicts of interest. The drawback of markets is that they often entail haggling and disagreement. The drawback of firms is that authority, which mitigates contention, can be abused. Competitive markets work relatively well because buyers and sellers can turn to other trading partners in case of dissent. But when market competition is limited, firms are better suited for conflict resolution than markets. A key prediction of Williamson’s theory, which has also been supported empirically, is therefore that the propensity of economic agents to conduct their transactions inside the boundaries of a firm increases along with the relationship-specific features of their assets.
Related: 2006 Nobel Peace Prize to Economist –
Failure to Regulate Financial Markets Leads to Predictable Consequences – Myths About Adam Smith Ideas v. His Ideas – Is Productivity Growth Bad?
Elinor Ostrom starts talking at the 9 minute mark.
Why delhi’s buses are so deadly: an economic analysis
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Which is why the last thing a Blueline driver ever wants to do is come to a stop. Every move he makes is done with the intent of keeping the bus in motion: slowing just enough so debarking passengers can jump off, then picking up speed as the new passengers run alongside the bus, swinging themselves up and in as the conductor screams at them to hurry.
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But with an estimated 2,200 Blueline buses careening across Delhi on any given day, it’s no wonder the newspaper reports are almost identical every day. After an accident, the driver tries to flee, an angry mob beats him, the police impound the bus, the driver is thrown in jail, the owner of the bus is not mentioned. Sometimes the driver escapes, in which case the mob finds its release in setting fire to the bus.
This is a good example of looking at problems economically. It also shows the problem with failure to regulate. I am perfectly happy to live with regulation that removes the economic pressure to risk human life.
Related: Failing Infrastructure in the USA – International Development Fair: The Human Factor – China May Take Car Sales Lead from USA in 2009
Viewing your credit report is an important step to financial security. You should review your credit reports annually (at least) to correct and any errors. Also doing so can be a tool to help you spot identity theft.
The real free credit report site, annualcreditreport.com, is provided by government regulation (so those that don’t believe in regulation would rather use one of the sites advertising “free” credit reports). But I suggest using the government provided reports and I would suggest spreading the requests out during the year (you get 3 a year, 1 from each of the nationwide consumer credit reporting companies).
The site also has a large frequently asked question section including:
How do I request a “fraud alert” be placed on my file?
You have the right to ask that nationwide consumer credit reporting companies place “fraud alerts” in your file to let potential creditors and others know that you may be a victim of identity theft. A fraud alert can make it more difficult for someone to get credit in your name because it tells creditors to follow certain procedures to protect you. It also may delay your ability to obtain credit. You may place a fraud alert in your file by calling just one of the three nationwide consumer credit reporting companies. As soon as that agency processes your fraud alert, it will notify the other two, which then also must place fraud alerts in your file.
Where can I find out more about credit reports, my rights as a consumer, the Fair Credit Reporting Act and the FACT Act?
Please visit www.ftc.gov/credit
Related: Credit Card Tips – Personal Finance Basics: Long-term Care Insurance – Financial Planning Made Easy
Nouriel Roubini is still worried about the US economy, though he does believe we are coming to the end of the severe recession we have been in.
I believe, that if you were worried about your portfolio being overweighted in stocks late last year, now is a good time to move some money out of the stock market. In December 2008, when many were selling in panic, I invested more in stocks.
The stock market has been on a tear increasing
1 December 2008 the S&P 500 was at 816
1 January 2009 – 903
6 March 2009 – 684 (the lowest point since 1996)
1 May 2009 – 878
1 August 2009 – 987
5 October 2009 – 1040
In 6 months, since the market hit a low on March 6th, it is up 52%. Certainly the decrease in prices seemed overdone. The 50% increase in prices seems overdone also. But trying to predict short term moves in the stock market (say under 1 year) is very difficult and few people can do so successfully (even if you can find lots of people offering their guesses). Predicting the economy, while not easy, is much much easier that predicting the stock market.
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Home prices in the United States rose 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from June to July, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.5% increase in June was revised downward to a 0.1% increase. For the 12 months ending in July, U.S. prices fell 4.2%. The U.S. index is 10.5% below its April 2007 peak.
The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Read the full press release. The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices also have increased (10 and 20 city indices) for June and July.
I am still not convinced we have seen the bottom of the housing price declines nationwide. The economy is still in very fragile territory. But the data does show the declining prices have been stopped in many locations, at least for a while. If job losses continue housing prices may well resume the decline. The commercial real estate market seems to be even weaker than housing.
Related: The Value of Home Ownership – Housing Prices Post Record Declines (April 2008) – posts on economic data – real estate articles
Main Street vs. Wall Street by Kevin Kelly
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Fees are only one part of the problem. Several owners I spoke to talked about how difficult it has been to get loans, or how restrictive loan covenants had become. “My bank won’t even talk to me,” confessed the owner of one local eatery who had received a Small Business Administration loan nearly two years ago that financed an upgrade and expansion of his kitchen.
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As for my relationship with Wells Fargo, it endures. Our line of credit comes up in six months, and I’m expecting the bank to try to boost our interest rate, especially given how much it has complained about how it’s too low. Where we once bundled many of our services through Wells Fargo—including our corporate, commercial, and equipment lending and our 401(k) plan, a policy the bank encouraged to deepen our ties—we’re looking to back out of some pieces…
Good idea, big banks have shown over and over again they take pride in consistently raising fees, reducing service and treating customers as though they are a bother. It is annoying that the big banks are constantly buying out the little banks to eliminate competition (and that regulators allow this is a sad commentary on our disrespect for the principles of capitalism) but when that happens move your banking needs to a small bank and you will be much better off in the long run.
Choosing to deal with big banks is bad idea. They have provided lousy service for quite some time. Obviously they do not chose to provide value to customers.
Related: Small Business Profit and Cash Flow – Smaller Companies Grab Bigger Share of Surging USA Exports – Congress Eases Bank Laws – 1999 – FDIC Study of Bank Overdraft Fees
Health Care: Lessons for America
It switched to a system that separates insurance from employment. Each individual or family is required to buy coverage, and insurers must offer a basic package of benefits to all applicants. They can’t profit from selling basic coverage, but they can from supplemental plans. Premiums are deducted from paychecks; the unemployed and poor are subsidized.
Despite opposition from insurers, drugmakers, and business, the plan passed by a bare majority and went into effect in 1996. Switzerland now spends 11% of its gross domestic product on health care, just as it did before. But everyone is covered, insurers are more profitable than ever, and its high-quality health care has been maintained.
The lesson, as laid out in The Healing of America: A Global Quest for Better, Cheaper, and Fairer Health Care, by T.R. Reid, is that “health-care systems can be changed, even in the face of powerful…interests.”
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Many Americans boast about having the best health care in the world, even though the U.N. ranks the U.S. system 37th, based on a broad range of measurements
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At the same time, he learned that almost all countries use one of four health-care models: Germany’s Bismarck system, in which hospitals and insurers are private entities and financing comes from payroll deductions; Britain’s Beveridge Model, with the government providing health care financed by taxes; the Canadian plan, where private doctors and hospitals are paid by the government through taxes; and the out-of-pocket care found in most poor nations, where those who can afford care get it, while the rest suffer or die. Unlike any other country, the U.S. combines all four models
Related: posts on the economics of health care – Broken Health Care System: Self-Employed Insurance – Many Experts Say USA Health-Care System Inefficient, Wasteful – USA Spent $2.2 Trillion, 16.2% of GDP, on Health Care in 2007 – International Health Care System Performance
Minnesota’s attorney general suing 3 debt-relief companies
The company failed to deliver on its promises, she said, forcing Anderson-Howze, of St. Paul, to become one of hundreds of Minnesota consumers to seek help from Minnesota Attorney General Lori Swanson.
Swanson sued Moneyworks LLC and two other debt assistance companies on Tuesday, alleging that the companies made unsolicited phone calls promising lowered interest rates, guaranteed savings and money-back guarantees. Swanson alleges that Washington-based Priority Direct Marketing, Clear Financial Solutions of Florida and Moneyworks LLC, based in Georgia, “charged financially strapped people a lot of money to lower the interest rates on their credit cards, only they failed to do so, leaving people even further behind on their bills.”
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Swanson also sent a letter to the Federal Trade Commission asking it to adopt federal regulations to prohibit companies from charging consumers until services are delivered satisfactorily.
Many organizations overing to help with debt relief are fraudulent. They are constantly being shut down for illegal activity. You must be very careful when you consider dealing with any of these organizations. Do not pay out money up front. Make sure the organization has a strong reputation and history of ethical behavior. Be financially literate: don’t get taken advantage of.
Related: Manage Your Borrowing and Avoid Debt Negotiators – USA Consumers Paying Down Debt – Continued Credit Card Company Customer Dis-Service