China and USA exports and imports have been dropping sharply. The USA has decreased the excess consumption over production by $20 billion a month (from $60B to $40B monthly deficit). China maintains a trade surplus and as imports drop faster than export this is actually increasing on a percentage basis.
Can the improvement in the US trade balance continue?
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Deficits and surpluses are shrinking globally now that the price of oil is at levels that roughly cover the oil exporters imports.* Right now China’s (growing) surplus is clearly the main counterpart to the United States’ (shrinking) deficit.
It is hard to put lipstick on a pig (or even an ox):
Related: The Budget Deficit, the Current Account Deficit and the Saving Deficit – Top 12 Manufacturing Countries in 2007 – Personal Saving and Personal Debt in the USA – Charge It to My Kids
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative by Fareed Zakaria
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Canadian banks are typically leveraged at 18 to 1—compared with U.S. banks at 26 to 1 and European banks at a frightening 61 to 1.
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Canada has been remarkably responsible over the past decade or so. It has had 12 years of budget surpluses, and can now spend money to fuel a recovery from a strong position. The government has restructured the national pension system, placing it on a firm fiscal footing, unlike our own insolvent Social Security. Its health-care system is cheaper than America’s by far (accounting for 9.7 percent of GDP, versus 15.2 percent here), and yet does better on all major indexes. Life expectancy in Canada is 81 years, versus 78 in the United States; “healthy life expectancy” is 72 years, versus 69. American car companies have moved so many jobs to Canada to take advantage of lower health-care costs that since 2004, Ontario and not Michigan has been North America’s largest car-producing region.
Related: Canadian Banks Avoid Failures Common Elsewhere – International Health Care System Performance – Greenspan Says He Was Wrong On Regulation
I am glad to be hosting the 50th edition of the Money Hacks Carnival. There really are a ton of great post on money hacks for your personal finances. I have highlighted some of my favorites from the last week. New visitors to the Curious Cat Economics and Investing Blog may be interested in some of past personal finance posts.
I have included snippets from a some highlighted posts which illustrate the great number of thoughtful individuals writing blogs about how to manage your money more effectively and the economic conditions that impact each of our personal financial lives.
- Patrick, with Military Finance Network, wrote Refund Anticipation Loans are Horrible – “is often near 99% APR or higher. Some Refund Anticipation Loans may cost the consumer up to 30% or more of their total tax return.” [He is exactly right, avoid being hacked out of your money by slick marketing of personal loans - John Hunter, Curious Cat].
- Peter wrote, The Best Decision Doesn’t Always Make The Most Financial Sense: “What I’ve learned through this process is that to succeed financially you have to be willing to make careful decisions about where you’re headed, and realize that success doesn’t always mean making the most logical choice. Sometimes it means taking into account the psychology and human elements of the equation. Only when you do that will you truly be able to make the best decisions for you and your family.”
- An Interview with Larry Winget – “If having a financially secure future is the most important thing to you, then that is where your money will go. Stop saying what is important to you and instead investigate the truth by tracking your spending.”
- Dan, Darwin’s Finance, wrote Generation Debt: Our Children will Hate Us – “We continued to spend like there was no tomorrow. Individual, national and local debt soared to heights that were unsustainable.”
- Mara Rogers, Secrets for Money, presents Another Type of Wealth: Pay It Forward and Random Acts of Kindness – “Your generosity can be shown in a very small and impulsive action such as paying someone a compliment, yet it will still have a very large positive impact on the other person, and typically results in a “ripple effect” of that person then being inspired to help another person.”
- Danelle Ice wrote, College Costs Are Rising: Save Now With an Education Savings Account (ESA) – “According to the College Cost Calculator on AmericanFunds.com, it will cost $168,395 to send our daughter to The University of Texas at Austin starting in 2026 for four years. This calculation is based on a 5% inflation rate.”.
- Patrick, Cash Money Life, wrote, How to Save Money on Your Homeowner’s Insurance Rates: 1) shop Around… 2) Increase Your Deductible… 3) Combine your homeowners and auto insurance policies…
- Dorian Wales presents Behavioral Finance in Everyday Life – The Lottery as a Case Study – “Lottery has been deemed a tax on stupidity for a good reason. Every smart and aware consumer knows better than to throw money away on odds smaller than those of getting hit by lightning 3 times in a row.”
Income
Using money and budgeting
- A Simple Budget That Works?.
- Teaching Kids to Spend Their Money Smartly by Dana
- Reduce Spending without Sacrificing Lifestyle #1 – Eliminate Waste
- Given a choice – money provides choices
- Do It Yourself Debt Consolidation by Pinyo
- Double Dipping Your Social Security Benefits by Junior Boomer
- Finding New Mountains to Climb – what to do once you are out of debt
- Can You Find Painless Ways to Cut Your Budget?
Apartment Rents Fall, Vacancies at 4-Year High
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Asking rents fell 0.1 percent from the previous quarter, to $1,052 on average, their first quarter-to-quarter decline in almost six years. They rose 2.4 percent from a year earlier. Effective rents, what tenants actually paid, fell to an average $996 last quarter, down 0.4 percent from the prior quarter and up 2.2 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. rental market set to slow down amid housing glut
Anthony De Silva said he was not happy that he had become a landlord. He bought a two-bedroom condominium 18 months ago on the ocean in Hollywood, Florida, expecting to sell at a $100,000 profit. Instead, he is now looking for tenants at $1,700 a month.
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“Increasing vacancies does not bode well for rental incomes,” said Nabil El-Hage, a professor at Harvard Business School. “We’ve seen a softening in apartment REITs as a result.”
So for renters nationwide this is one possible silver lining to the current economic crisis. Granted not a large one but in these times any good news is worth appreciating. For real estate investors the news is not as good. The Washington DC market is forecast to go against the trend for reduced rents in 2009.
According to Marus and Millichap, Metrowide vacancy is expected to rise 60 basis points this year to 6.5 percent. Asking rents are projected to advance 3.1 percent to $1,410 per month in 2009, while effective rents increase 2.8 percent to $1,351 per month. Rent growth will lag slightly in Suburban Maryland. Of the 43 rental market they track they project San Francisco to see the largest increases in rent in 2009, followed by San Diego and Washington DC.
Related: Home Values and Rental Rates – Rent Controls are Unwise – posts on housing – How Walkable is Your Prospective Neighborhood
GDP slides 3.8%, worst since 1982
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“All of this points towards real GDP declining faster in the first quarter than the fourth quarter,” Levy said. Another bad portent was a sharp decline in exports. U.S. sales to other countries had been strong in recent years, boosted by high demand overseas and the relatively low value of the dollar. But that situation reversed sharply in the last three months of 2008, with exports plummeting 19.7%.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the decline in the U.S. is matched by other leading economies, which contracted about 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008.
The decline was a bit less than anticipated but obviously shows an economy in serious trouble. U.S. GDP Falls At 3.8 Percent Pace In 4th Quarter
The Commerce report showed consumer spending – which accounts for a whopping two-thirds of U.S. economic activity – fell another 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter after declining 3.8 percent in the third quarter. Spending on durable goods such as cars and furniture plunged 22.4 percent, the steepest decline since the first quarter of 1987.
As I have been saying for awhile the economy is in trouble and 2009 looks to be difficult. We should be happy if a recovery is underway in the 4th quarter of 2009 and we have not too drastically increased the burden on the future to pay for current spending.
Related: Financial Market Meltdown (Oct 2008) – Cracks in US Economy? (Dec 2006) – Fed Continues Wall Street Welfare – Forecasting Oil Prices – Crisis May Push USA Federal Deficit to Above $1 Trillion for 2009
Times are tough. Economic news is grim. But if you are looking to relax somewhere warm, you are in luck. Deals in Paradise
The bargains in Las Vegas are so gigantic that I couldn’t figure them out myself. I called Howard Lefkowitz, the chief executive of Vegas.com, for a little help. After a little patter promising that “everything is 25 to 30 percent” less than last year, Lefkowitz agreed to a real-time test.
“What would a room at the Bellagio cost me tonight?” I asked. After a few keystrokes — I heard his keyboard clacking over his website — he found a $129 rate for a standard room at the five-star property. “That probably would have cost $225 last year,” he said. “What would $129 have gotten me last year?” I wondered. Lefkowitz didn’t hesitate: “A night at Paris, a nice four-star resort.” What was Paris charging tonight?” I asked. A few more keystrokes and Lefkowitz had an answer: $90.
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“Call me,” the general manager at a new hotel in Miami advised. “I’ll offer you a price you won’t find on the Web.”
Related: Medieval Peasants had More Vacation Time – Dream More, Work Less – 9 Days in Egypt – Costa Rica Photo Essay – South Carolina Photos
President Barack Obama’s Inaugural Address
That sounds nice I believe however, it is fairly irrelevant. Economic demand is what is down, not production capacity. We are “no less productive than when this crisis began.” Ok, that is probably true. So what. That implies that the crisis has something to do with productivity. If we say the color of our eyes is the same as when the crisis began it is obvious that is a non-sequitur. Well so is the quote by the new President, though that is less obvious.
Our demand was definitely over stimulated using massive federal government budget deficits, massive trade deficits, massive amounts of consumer debt, massive amounts of unjustified mortgage debt and massive amounts of leverage. None of those things has anything to do with capacity in the implied sense – capacity to produce. They have to do with the capacity to consume. And while our capacity to consume has not declined. The funding that allows that consumption (foreign lending, high leverage, junk mortgages…) has decreased.
Read more
The costs to employees for health insurance keep increasing, even as employers pay more also. A Premium Sucker Punch:
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The Corporate Executive Board found in its survey that a quarter of officials from 350 large corporations said they had increased deductibles an average of 9 percent in 2008. But 30 percent of the employers said they expected to raise deductibles an average of 14 percent in 2009. Mercer, a global benefits consulting firm, surveyed nearly 2,000 large corporations in a representative poll and found that 44 percent planned to increase employee-paid portion of premiums in 2009, compared with 40 percent in 2008.
The economic slowdown, according to analysts, is making it more difficult for many employers to subsidize health care costs at previous levels. On average, experts say, benefit packages contain the biggest increases for workers since the recession of 2001. Workers’ health costs are rising much faster than wages.
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Premiums for employer-sponsored plans over a decade on average have risen to $12,680 a year from $5,791, according to the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. The median deductible for the plans was $1,000 in 2008, compared with $500 from 2001 to 2007, according to a survey of 2,900 employers conducted by Mercer.
The broken health care system in the USA has been a huge drain on the economy and people’s standard of living for decades. The longer we allow the system to decline (increasing costs, declining results) the more damage the economy suffers and the larger the costs to implementing fixes become.
Related: Personal Finance Basics: Long-term Care Insurance – Medical Debt Increases as Economy Declines – International Health Care System Performance – Many Experts Say Health-Care System Inefficient, Wasteful – posts on improving the health care system
Gavin Kennedy is a professor and director of contracts at Edinburgh Business School. He authors the Adam Smith’s Lost Legacy blog discussing the mis-attributions to Adam Smith, which are all too common now. A good example is, Perpetrators of Myths Mislead Generations of Students, Some of Whom Grow Up to (mis)Advise Legislators:
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Smith’s intellectual arguments, and personal warmth for the growth of commercial society, were driven by the conviction that growth across agriculture, industry and specific, targeted public expenditure, such as defence, justice, and public works and public institutions, would assist the spread of opulence, especially to the labouring poor and their families, albeit slowly and gradually, but steadily too, if legislators and those who influenced them were careful not to approve monopoly schemes to narrow markets and restrict competition, not to indulge in spasms of ‘jealousy of trade’, protectionism, forming loss-making colonies and conducting wars for trivial ends (i.e., not for defensive purposes only).
Introducing, a mystical or miraculous force at work in markets detracts from the real and detailed policy measures that may required from time to time to ensure steady growth, competition, and liberty for all, and not just for the amoral ends of privileged monopolists and their cronies.
Related: Not Understanding Capitalism – Ignorance of Capitalism – Monopolies and Oligopolies do not a Free Market Make – Estate Tax Repeal, Bad Policy
I do not like the actions of many in “private equity.” I am a big fan of capitalism. I also object to those that unjustly take from the other stakeholders involved in an enterprise. It is not the specific facts of this case, that I see as important, but the thinking behind these types of actions. Which specific actions are to blame for this bankruptcy is not my point. I detest that financial gimmicks by “private capital” that ruin companies.
Those gimmicks that leave stakeholders that built such companies in ruin should be criticized. It is a core principle that I share with Dr. Deming, Toyota… that companies exist not to be plundered by those in positions of power but to benefit all the stakeholders (employees, owners, customers, suppliers, communities…). I don’t believe you can practice real lean manufacturing and subscribe to this take out cash and leave a venerable company behind kind of thinking.
How Private Equity Strangled Mervyns
When those firms bought Mervyns from Target for $1.2 billion in 2004, they promised to revive the limping West Coast retailer. Then they stripped it of real estate assets, nearly doubled its rent, and saddled it with $800 million in debt while sucking out more than $400 million in cash for themselves, according to the company. The moves left Mervyns so weak it couldn’t survive.
Mervyns’ collapse reveals dangerous flaws in the private equity playbook. It shows how investors with risky business plans, unrealistic financial assumptions, and competing agendas can deliver a death blow to companies that otherwise could have survived. And it offers a glimpse into the human suffering wrought by owners looking to turn a quick profit above all else.
Too much debt is not just a personal finance problem it is a problem for companies too. Continue reading on my original post on the Curious Cat Management Blog.
Related: Leverage, Complex Deals and Mania – Failed Executives Used Too Much Leverage – posts on debt