You might think that increased gas prices lead to less driving, but historically that has not been the case. Gas demand is very inelastic (or gas prices are very elastic): which means demand changes very little as prices increase.
How much has consumption actually decreased in the face of huge increases in prices? The US government predicts .3% this year: and there is evidence it might actually be declining more in the last few months. Finally a significant reduction in demand may be upon us. Previously the only significant reaction was increased complaints but little change in behavior.
Gas may finally cost too much:
Related: Bigger Impact: 15 to 18 mpg or 50 to 100 mpg? – Gas Tax – $8,000 Per Gallon (ink not gas) – South Korea Invests $22 Billion in Overseas Energy Projects – The Rebirth of Cities – Traffic Congestion and a Non-Solution – Energy Future – Designing Cities for People, Rather than Cars – Gas Prices Send Surge of Riders to Mass Transit
The recent drastic reductions again emphasize (once again) that changes in the federal funds rate are not correlated with changes in the 30 year fixed mortgage rate. In the last 4 months the discount rate has been reduced nearly 200 basis points, while 30 year fixed mortgage rates have fallen 18 basis points.
I have update my article showing the historical comparison of 30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate. The chart shows the federal funds rate and the 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate from January 2000 through April 2008 (for more details see the article).
There is not a significant correlation between moves in federal funds rate and 30 year mortgage rates that can be used for those looking to determine short term (over a few days, weeks or months) moves in the 30 year fixed mortgage rates. For example if 30 year rates are at 6% and the federal reserve drops the federal funds rate 50 basis points that tells you little about what the 30 year rate will do. No matter how often those that should know better repeat the belief that there is such a correlation you can look at the actual data in the graph above to see that it is not the case.
Related: real estate articles – Affect of Fed Funds Rates Changes on Mortgage Rates – How Not to Convert Equity – more posts on financial literacy
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More who need major surgery are leaving U.S.
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Medical tourism – surgery cost estimates
| Procedure | United States | India | Thailand | Singapore | Costa Rica |
| Coronary bypass | $130,000 | $6,650-$9,300 | $11,000 | $16,500 | $24,000 |
| Spinal fusion | 62,000 | 4,500-8,500 | 7,000 | 10,000 | 25,000 |
| Angioplasty | 57,000 | 5,000-7,500 | 13,000 | 11,200 | 9,000 |
| Hip replacement | 43,000 | 5,800-7,100 | 12,000 | 9,200 | 12,000 |
| Knee replacement | 40,000 | 6,200-8,500 | 10,000 | 11,100 | 11,000 |
Source: Medical Tourism Association (2007).
Related: Traveling for Health Care – International Health Care System Performance – USA Spent $2.1 Trillion on Health Care in 2006 – Broken Health Care System: Self-Employed Insurance – Personal Finance Basics: Health Insurance
Every year at the Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger provide great insights on investing and the economy. Here are some thought from today – Buffett to investors: Think small
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“Overall I think that the U.S. continues to follow policies that will make the dollar weaken against other major currencies
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Asked what’s in store for the economy, Buffett said he doesn’t have a clue and doesn’t care. “I haven’t the faintest idea,” he said. “We never talk about it, it never comes up in our board meetings or other discussions. We’re not in that business [of economic forecasting], we don’t know how to be in that business. If we knew where the economy was going, we’d do nothing but play the S&P futures market.”
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In terms of the [chief] investment officer, the board has four names, any one or all of whom would be good at my job. They all are happy where they are now [working outside of Berkshire], but any would be here tomorrow if I died tonight, they all are reasonably young, and compensation would not be a big factor…. There will be no gap after my death in terms of having someone manage the money.
Related: Live From Omaha 2007 – Buffett’s 2008 Letter to Shareholders – 2005 annual meeting with Buffett and Munger – Why Investing is Safer Overseas
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At work people have been talking about the increasing prices of food and the price increases sure are noticeable to me. With the exception of gas, I have not heard discussion of inflation outside of a classroom, maybe ever, I can’t recall hearing it anyway. Egg prices are up 35 percent, with milk and bread not far behind
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The crunch for American shoppers pales compared with the challenges faced by those in the developing world. Americans spend just 9.9 percent of household income on food, according to the Agriculture Department. Compare that with poor countries such as Ethiopia and Bangladesh, where it’s not uncommon for families to spend 70 percent.
Consumer Price Index Summary – March 2008:
Related: what is inflation risk? – Manufacturing Productivity – What Do Unemployment Stats Mean?
From January 2005 to July 2007 the Federal Funds Rate was steadily increased. The rate was held for a year. Since then the rate has been decreasing (dramatically, recently). As you can see from the chart, 10 year bond yields have been much less variable. The chart also shows 10 year corporate bond yields increasing in February and March when the federal funds rate fell well over 100 basis points.
Treasury bond yields are down but a huge part of the reason is a “flight to quality,” where investors are reluctant to hold other bonds (so they buy treasuries when they sell those bonds). Therefore other bond yields (and mortgage rates) are not decreasing. I guessed last month that the data “may well decrease some for both 10 year bonds once the March data is posted” which wasn’t the case. But I was right in “expect[ing] the spread between treasuries be larger than it was in January.”
Data from the federal reserve – corporate Aaa – corporate Baa – ten year treasury – fed funds
Related: 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates versus the Fed Funds Rate – After Tax Return on Municipal Bonds
Housing prices posted large declines over the last year. One important thing to keep in mind when looking at the recent results is how rare significant declines in housing prices have been. In general housing prices decline very little (less than 10% drops and normally less than 5%). Normally the turnover just decreases dramatically as people refuse to sell at lower prices and just stay in their house until prices recover. Housing Prices Post Record Declines:
Of those 20 metro areas, 17 posted their largest year-over-year declines ever. Ten of the 20 cities posted double-digit dips. The 10-city Case/Shiller index is down 13.6% year-over-year, the biggest drop since its launch in 1987
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Prices in the Las Vegas metro area have plunged more than any other city, down 22.8% over the 12 months through February. Miami prices plummeted 21.7%. In Phoenix, they’ve fallen 20.8%. Of the 20 cities Case/Shiller tracks, only Charlotte, N.C. showed higher prices, up 1.5% over the 12-month period.
Other metro areas recorded only modest price declines, including Portland, Ore., down 2.0%, Seattle, off 2.7% and Dallas, 4.1%. In the nation’s largest city, New York, metro area prices dropped a modest 6.6%.
Related: Home Price Declines Exceeding 10% Seen for 20% of Housing Markets (Sep 2007) – How Not to Convert Equity – Housing Inventory Glut (Aug 2007) – Mortgage Defaults: Latest Woe for Housing (Feb 2007)
Horatio Alger Multiplied by 1.3 Billion
“My mother and father went through the Cultural Revolution,” Mr. Feng said. “They had no chance.” He continued: “When I was in grammar school, the Cultural Revolution ended. When I graduated from university in 1992, that was the year of real reform. Deng Xiaoping encouraged students to go into business and become entrepreneurs. Before then, if you wanted to be an entrepreneur, you would sink like a stone. But after that, anyone could be an entrepreneur.”
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But look at what else happened: motivated by the prospect of wealth, people started companies. And as those companies succeeded, millions of new jobs were created.
I have written about the importance of capitalism to improve life for people around the globe. I have also discussed how many don’t understand what capitalism is (the general idea that capitalism is largely about those with the gold making the rules, which it is not).
Capitalism fundamentally is about allowing market to determine how to allocate resources (and government protecting that function along with others such as providing security, regulating externalities…). There are serious problems with in the USA in this regard – with enormous political favors granted those giving politicians enormous payments and oligopolies restricting the market from working properly. The government fails to properly regulate oligopolies, as dictated by capitalism – to prevent the markets to be dictated to by organizations pursuing their own interests, again due to large payments to politicians by those favored by preventing capitalism from working (either that or just a co-incidence that those making big payments just happen to give to politicians legislating [and overseeing regulators] against capitalism).
Just to state the obvious, Chinese government policy and practices also conflicts with capitalism frequently.
Related: Estate Tax Repeal – What is Wrong with Copyright Taking Public Good for Private Special Interests – Bill Gates: Capitalism on the 21st Century – The Future is Engineering – Making a Difference – Diplomacy and Science Research
Home Prices Drop Most in Areas with Long Commute by Kathleen Schalch
The Washington, D.C., metropolitan area has been hit hard. Prices tumbled an average of 11 percent in the past year. That’s the big picture. But a look at Ashburn, Va., about 40 miles from the center of town, finds a steeper fall.
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Jonathan Hill, vice president of Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, which tracks home sales, sat in his office recently, clicking through page after page of price data sorted by ZIP code. There were a lot of negative numbers, but not in places that are close in or near public transit.
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David Stiff, chief economist for the company that produces the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, saw the trend in other cities, as well – including Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, San Diego, Miami and Boston. Stiff recently matched home resale values against commute times and found that in most of these major metropolitan areas, the trend is the same. The longer the commute, the steeper the drop in prices.
Related: Urban Planning – How Walkable is Your Prospective Neighborhood – Exurbs Hardest Hit in Recent Housing Slump (Feb 2007)
Half of Gen X Doesn’t Expect to Retire
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“They are earning money and paying into Social Security and yet they fear they may never see the payback,” said Moloney. “They feel they deserve it, but it looks like a financial black hole to them right now.”
The government certainly is failing to pay for future obligations today instead choosing to raise taxes on the future. But Social Security itself is actually in better shape than most think. We really do need to move out the benefit payment date (when it began projected life expectancy was almost the same as the date payments would start – which would mean moving the retirement date more than 15 years later, I believe). Going that far is not needed but it should be moved back. But really social security is in good shape for 30 years or more. First, it isn’t going to go from good shape to failed in a day. And second, they will make adjustments as they have in the past to make it work (the adjustment they made in the last 15 years helped a great deal so now they can just add some additional delays in when it starts paying out… and extend the good condition of Social Security without too much trouble).
Medicare is the huge problem. The country either needs to stop paying an extra 50-80% for health care than other countries do (and thus reduce the cost of Medicare liabilities) or massively cut benefits or massively increase taxes. Likely a combination of all 3.
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